North East India[i] (NE) is a microcosm of the country’s diversity, a least appreciated region which remains to be integrated in the mainstream primarily due to hesitancies not of the people in the NE but the country at large.
Strategically the North East with land boundary with Bhutan, China [disputed], Myanmar and Bangladesh is most significant.
A review of the political and security nuances of the region is carried out herein
National Politics
In the larger context of national politics, North East is integrated with Indian polity.
The trend is that the party which is in power in Delhi dominates the North East as well, thus the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is directly ruling the states or is supporting governments of partners in States.
However, political power of the State is not all pervasive thus varied factors are relevant for each state discussed separately.
Security
Security has been a challenge for decades in the North East with multiple ideological roots of ethnic nationalism, preservation of sub state, ethnic and tribal identity, legacy issues from the India’s Independence, perception of exploitation and so on.
Lack of development and political economy of corruption has fed into these trends to have created many violent insurgencies in the past.
Today these are controlled with low level of violence and terrorism frequently criminal the main challenge.
Yet the cycle of violence has the chance to rise due to external factors.
Today two trends are seen as having significant impact on security in the North East - the first having already manifested –is ongoing quasi civil war in Myanmar and the second emergence of threat of religious extremism spawned by regional terrorist groups as the al Qaeda in the Indian Sub Continent (AQIS).
There has been no major terrorist incident ascribed to the AQIS thus the challenge can be seen as low.
Situation in Myanmar however is expected to have a significant impact on security in the North East.
Primarily sanctuaries of militant groups from the region such as the United Liberation Front of Assam or ULFA I, the Meitei groups of Manipur, the NSCN IM and other Naga groups in Taga area of Sagaing Region in Myanmar which had been neutralized in the past have become active as the Myanmar Army does not have the capacity to secure these after extensively deployed for managing multiple People’s Defence Forces (PDF) which have sprung up in this belt.
Sagaing region is a hot spot with maximum resistance to the Myanmar Army for the past 18 months after the military coup on February 01, last year.
The NSCN Yung Aung faction which is active in Myanmar and has no cease fire unlike the other factions has been undertaking cross border attacks in the North East.
At least two cross border attacks have been reported by the NSCN YA on Assam Rifles posts with some casualties to the security forces.
Fighting is also intense in another area bordering India -Chin State with approximately 30,000 refugees flowing to Mizoram. This refugee flow has own dynamics which is also unresolved for now.
Thus the complexities of insecurity in the North East can be expected to have an inflow in India.
Conflict Resolution Challenge
Even as security is low, peace for the people may be absent in the true sense as the terror of militants continues in the form of extortion, “tax,” collection and so on.
This underlines challenge of conflict resolution which is particularly complex.
Communities which seek sub state status are easy to pacify such as the Bodos, Dimasa and Karbi in Assam by accommodating them through the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution of India.
Those espousing ethnic nationalism even if not necessarily separatism are however difficult to pacify the typical example being of the NSCN IM. The Government of India and the NSCN IM have been holding talks since 1997 and two and a half decades later a breakthrough is elusive.
This despite a much talked about Framework Agreement with the NSCN IM in August 2015 in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi which has remained still born.
Demand of the NSCN IM for a separate flag and a constitution is the main hurdle at present.
This implies a special status – the BJP the present ruling party in the centre is averse to such a demand especially after repealing provisions of the same for Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019.
Another demand of the NSCN IM is to integrate the Naga communities spread across the North East as a single state entity, which is politically hard to achieve due to resistance from other states.
One arrangement that has been proposed is of a Pan Naga Hoho a social linkage to integrate people with status quo on governance.
Fragmentation of regional and tribal identity in the Nagas is another challenge.
However, a solution accepted by the NSCN IM is expected to be fungible for others.
In Manipur, Meitei groups are seeking ethnic separatism based on inequities of interpretation of the partition of India and their identity. No talks are ongoing with these groups at present.
Meanwhile simultaneous negotiations are ongoing with multiple groups in Assam, Meghalaya and Manipur mainly the Kuki which seem almost interminable
Apart from the Naga groups however others who are in talks with the government have been disarmed and ceased hostilities – a lesson that was learnt from the Naga cease fire agreement.
External Support to Militants
External support to militancy in North East at present is limited. The absence of security is a default support from Myanmar while this is also partially so in some hill pockets in Bangladesh. Chinese agencies were actively supporting the North East militancy but have pulled back over a decade and a half ago.
These could have political influence on the groups such as NSCN IM, ULFA (I) and so on which however is difficult to establish without hard evidence.
Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA)
Armed Forces Special Powers Act 1958 – AFSPA for short has caused much anger amongst the local population. The Act empowers the armed forces to operate in selected pockets in the region and is presently operative in select states and pockets within the states.
AFSPA is promulgated by the Central Government after the State Governments declared a district or sub district as disturbed.
The main provision is of operational independence granted to commanders down to the lowest sub unit as section in the rank of Non Commissioned Officer (NCO). This is alleged to have led to many violations in the past. Despite extensive debate, dilution or removal of AFSPA from areas operative has been contentious.
Conclusion
A brief review of the complex dynamics of security in the North East and attendant politics has been carried out herein. There are other dimensions such inter state border issues which need to be addressed.
Empathy at all levels is the way ahead for providing relief to the people at large.
[i] North East India refers to the states of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Meghalaya. Frequently Sikkim is also cited as a part of the North East Region but has a distinct political and socio economic identity and has thus not been included in the discussion.