Myanmar Forecast May 2025 -A Fifth Year in Distress

Myanmar the Eternal Sunset? Source Wix Media

Executive Summary

Four years  since the military coup in Myanmar, the country continues to be in turmoil with outbreak of civil war in almost all States as well as the Northern Regions of the Irrawaddy Valley.[i] The bloody violence is expected to spread like an amoeba from the periphery extending southwards while the spine of the Irrawaddy Valley will remain relatively unscathed in the short term. Briefly speaking, the periphery of the country is on fire with the military having lost ground but the resistance unable to consolidate so far.

The State Administrative Council [SAC] which assumed the mantle of governance led by Prime Minister and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is attempting to contain the myriad Ethnic Armed Organisations [EAOs] and forces known as the People’s Defence Force [PDF] led by the National Unity Government [NUG] mainly comprising of former ruling party members National League for Democracy [NLD].

War time crimes and atrocities by the Tatmadaw the Myanmar Armed Forces are continuing with air attacks the dominant tactic given that the military has lost ground in the areas where fighting is ongoing. Civilian areas including schools are increasingly targeted.

There are allegations of violation of rights by the EAOs and PDFs as well with the Myanmar people suffering in this brutal war which appears to have no end in sight.

An increasingly belligerent posture by the military is likely with extensive employment of the air force, which has led to regaining some lost positions in the Northern Shan State and other areas but after bitter fighting.

Increasingly the role of military No 2 Vice-Senior General Soe Win is evident in the new phase of operations by the military using air strikes as a primary weapon of war.

Meanwhile sustained battles between the EAOs and PDFs with the military are expected to continue in Sagaing and Mandalay region, Shan and Rakhine State amongst others.

With limited influence of the international community as well as Association of South East Asian Nations or ASEAN of which Myanmar is a member,  the SAC has been able to sustain with the support of China and Russia.

A visit by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visit to Moscow as a guest to attend the victory day parade on May 09 his fifth so far after the coup has marked the sustained support of Russia to the Myanmar military which is expected to continue.

The meeting of Min Aung Hlaing with Chinese President Xi Jinping for the first time after the military coup in Moscow also underlined continued support of a key regional stakeholder Beijing which has already favoured the Myanmar military by forcing the EAO in Northen Shan State to vacate the capital Lashio which had been stormed in December last year.

China’s increasing assertive posture in Myanmar including plans for joint security of Chinese projects is Beijing first active foray into the region, so how this pans out remains to be seen, as stability is unlikely given the multiple vectors of uncertainty in the country.

With assured support by the two key members of the UN Security Council, Russia and China, grandiose plans have been made to hold elections this year even though the writ of the SAC is limited.

Another layer of distress was added to the hapless people of the country with an earthquake on March 28th affecting North Central Myanmar including the capital Nay Pyi Taw.

International and regional aid poured in monopolized by the military, the acute humanitarian crisis is expected to continue even as only limited efforts are being made for rebuilding infrastructure lost in the quake particularly in civilian areas.

Continued military stalemate and peripheral interests and influence of the main international and regional actors implies that the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar is expected to continue.

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[i] Myanmar has 21 administrative divisions, - 7 regions (formerly called divisions) based on the majority Bamar population 7 states for ethnic communities, 1 union territory, 1 self-administered division and 5 self-administered zones again mostly of ethnic communities.

Of these six states and one region is seeing intense violence. Four regions and 1 State increasing violence.