There is no relief in the Middle East nor is one anytime soon, with impossible objectives by Israel of elimination of the Hamas from Gaza, while the non state terrorist actor continues to survive behind civilian shield. Meanwhile geopolitics continues to stump political signals to support a two-state solution as the United Nations is locked in a grid lock. Here is a review-
Diplomacy
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that the war on Gaza is an “open wound” that threatens to infect the entire region. “The only permanent way to end the cycle of violence and instability is through a two-state solution, Israel and Palestine living side-by-side in peace and security, with Jerusalem as capital of both states,” he said.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said that he will announce the date on which Madrid will recognise a Palestinian state along with several EU partners on May 22. This comes after a resolution was passed in the United Nations with an overwhelming majority, supporting full membership of Palestine and pressing the Security Council to give "favourable consideration" to the bid as per the CNN reported. The resolution won a resounding majority of 143 votes in favour, including by India. 25 countries abstained, while nine nations, including Israel and the United States, voted against the text.
Meanwhile the United States Congress rebuked President Joe Biden for pausing a shipment of bombs to Israel, passing legislation that seeks to force the weapons transfer as Republicans worked to highlight Democratic divisions over the Israel-Hamas war.
South Africa told the United Nations’ top court on May 16 that the situation in Gaza has reached “a new and horrific stage” as it sought emergency measures to halt Israel’s military operation in the enclave’s southern city of Rafah.
Military
On the military front Israeli troops and tanks advanced on May 18 into northern Gaza Strip district killing and wounding dozens of Palestinians, medics and residents said as per a reports by the Reuters.
The Israeli army told AFP on May 17 that renewed fighting in Gaza's northern town of Jabalia was "perhaps the fiercest" in over seven months of war. Intense fighting in Jabalia — which is home to largest refugee camp in the Gaza Strip, with more than 100,000 people.
Israel's forces also took seized ground in Rafah, a southern city by the Egyptian border with large number of displaced people. Israel's military said air strikes hit more than 70 targets across Gaza while ground troops conducted "targeted raids" in eastern Rafah, killing 50 fighters and locating dozens of tunnel shafts.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah claimed an attack on an Israeli military post in the northern town of Metula using a drone that fired two missiles the first time an attack drone has been used by the group.
Benny Gantz, a centrist member of the Israeli war cabinet, threatened to resign if the right-wing leader does not agree by June 8 to a day-after plan that would include how Gaza might be ruled after the war with Hamas revealing differences in the Israeli cabinet.
Red Sea
A crude oil tanker was hit by a missile off the coast of Yemen's rebel-held city of Mokha overlooking the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait as per maritime security firm Ambrey on May 18.
The British navy's maritime security agency had earlier said it received a report of a vessel "sustaining slight damage after being struck by an unknown object". The attack around 1 a.m. struck the oil tanker Wind, which recently docked in Russia and was bound for China, U.S. Central Command said. Houthis had earlier announced that ships carrying cargo for China and Russia will not be targeted.
Risks, Impact & Checks
A long drawn out war in Gaza including humanitarian distress can be anticipated with failure of diplomacy and lack of viable achievement of war objectives by Israel within a reasonable time frame. Renewed attacks by Israeli armed forces in Northern Gaza as well as in the South indicates that Jerusalem’s war objectives of completely neutralizing the Hamas are not achievable. This is also evident from differences within the Israeli War Cabinet.
While United States political and military support to Israel will sustain Israeli offensives, lack of achievable war aims indicates a protracted conflict ahead even as efforts by the international community to limit humanitarian losses remain stultified.
Meanwhile, resumption of attacks on merchant shipping by the Houthi supported by Iran which are seen somewhat random indicates that the Red Sea corridor for safe maritime transit are also facing challenges that can be undefined in terms of time.
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