There are six clear indicators of the new administration in Maldives under Dr Mohammed Muizzu's tilt towards China despite stating that policy is Maldives First. This comes even as the government seems to have scrapped the general policy followed so far of India First.
Here is a review of the indicators-
Indicator – Review of Hydrography Agreement
Mohamed Firuzul Abdul Khaleel, the Undersecretary for Public Policy at the President’s Office, announcing accomplishment of the 17 tasks promised for the first four weeks, under President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu administration’s ‘Haftha 14’ roadmap.
He highlighted that one of the main achievements was informing India that it will not renew the hydrography agreement which is due for renewal on June 7, 2024. “According to the terms of this agreement, if one party wishes to drop the agreement, the other party must be informed of the decision six months before the agreement is set to expire. According to the terms, the agreement automatically renews for an additional five years, otherwise,” he said as per Sunonline. India has been informed that the Maldives does not wish to proceed with the agreement he said.
He claimed that it is best for national security to improve the Maldivian military’s capacity to conduct such surveys, and protect such sensitive information. “In the future, hydrography works will be carried out under 100 percent Maldivian management, and with only Maldivians privy to the information,” he said leaving how this specialist capability will be build up open. Possible assistance from China for the same needs to be observed ahead.
Indicator - Absence in CSC
WION reported that Maldives did not send a representative for the Colombo Security Conclave a regional dialogue of countries in the Indian Ocean region that is steered by India and has Maldives, Mauritius, and Sri Lanka as member at the National Security Advisers (NSAs) level. Bangladesh and Seychelles participate in the meetings as Observer States.
Indicator - Vice President Trip to China
On the other hand, Maldives Vice President Hussain Mohamed Latheef was in China for the meeting of 'China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Development Cooperation,' organised by the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) in Yunnan.
Vice President Hussain Mohamed Latheef participating in the forum ‘China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Development Cooperation'; said the recently sworn-in Maldivian President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu and his administration are dedicated to fortifying the long-standing relations between China and the Maldives – which he described was built upon the foundation of mutual respect and shared goals.
He expressed eagerness to explore novel avenues of collaboration and cooperation with China, fostering a dynamic partnership bringing tangible benefits to both nations. Speaking further, VP Latheef expressed Maldives’ readiness to forge stronger bonds, share expertise, and work hand in hand towards a resilient and prosperous Indian Ocean Region.
Indicator - Increased Economic Cooperation with China
Separately the Economic Minister Mohamed Saeed who was also in Yunnan stated that Chinese government has provided assurance of increasing flights to the Maldives and developmental projects carried out by China in the Maldives.
In a post on X, Minister Saeed stated, “A positive change as a result; hopeful days,” he added. So more projects on the lines of Sinamale’ bridge project and the development of Hiyaa flats in Hulhumale’ Phase II can be anticipated.
Indicator - Withdrawal of Indian Troops
Speaking to the press at Velana International Airport (VIA) on December 03 after returning from his maiden trip abroad since assuming office – President Muizzu said his government, the day after assuming office, officially requested to withdraw the Indian troops. He assured that the decision will not change in the future. “It is not a remark made during the campaign to secure votes. Because I am a Maldivian, I wish to put forward Maldivian citizens and the interests of the nation. Maldivians come to me first,” he said.
“During all efforts undertaken before this and efforts undertaken to date, the Indian government has come to an agreement with us to withdraw the troops,” he added.
This comes after President Muizzu met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Twenty-Eighth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) in Dubai, UAE.
President said PM Modi conveyed that he respected the democratic decision made by the Maldivian people.
There are differences over the exact number of Indian troops with some reports indicating the number to be 77 essentially to look after the naval assets for surveillance. 24 personnel were to manage the first helicopter, 25 to manage the Dornier aircraft, 26 to manage the second helicopter, and two more for maintenance and engineering.
However, during a press conference held on December 03, President Muizzu said the number of Indian soldiers has now risen to 89, adding there was a chance of the number increasing even further. MDP’s Baarah MP Ahmed Abdulla submitted the emergency motion during the parliamentary sitting seeking more information on the issue.
Indicator - Review of High Level Agreements with India
On the agreements with India by the previous government, a high-level committee has been formed to address difficulties faced in the undertaking of projects initiated by India in the Maldives. “Both nations have agreed to form a high-level committee that can take immediate decisions with respect to projects, including the biggest project which is the bridge project proceeding near Male’, alongside situations arising concerning loans and other national crises,” he said. India Ministry of External Affairs indicated that a “core group,” is being formed for the purpose.
As the Indian Ministry of External Affairs highlights, Maldives’ proximity to the west coast of India (barely 70 nautical miles away from Minicoy and 300 nautical miles away from India’s West coast), and its situation at the hub of commercial sea lanes running through the Indian Ocean imbues it with significant strategic importance to India.