There is a degree of despondency in the Indian strategic circles over the tilt of Maldives government after President Dr Mohammad Muizzu took over the Presidency.
Dr Muizzu won on a campaign of, “India Out” which was attenuated by the spread of disinformation as has been recorded by the European Election Observation Mission by the PPM-PNC’s presidential campaign which included anti-Indian sentiments, based on fears of Indian influences and anxiety regarding a presence of Indian military personnel inside the Maldives.
“This theme was subject to multiple online disinformation attempts,” reads the report. Possibly India was caught napping.
Another factor in the success of Dr Muizzu is split in the Maldives Democratic Party [MDP] where then President Solih developed differences with the former speaker and President Mohammad Nasheed. This led Nasheed forming the Democrat Party and splitting the vote.
The negative cycle of election of Dr Muizzu for India can be reversed through the democratic path by boosting the large pro India Maldives community through the path of vote which can come about literally within the next two months when the parliamentary elections are held in the atoll nation.
The positive wave in support of the MDP is already evident in Maldives just months after the Presidential elections.
The MDP’s candidate, Adam Azim has been elected as the new mayor of the Maldivian capital, Male. Azim, the former CEO of Maldives Transport and Contracting Company (MTCC) won the seat which was held by the President Dr Muizzu before he resigned to run as the President.
Adam Azim won despite fervent appeals by the President to vote main ruling PNC’s candidate Aishath Azima Shakoor.
The rapid reversal of fortunes of the MDP augurs well for the parliamentary polls which Elections Commission (EC) has announced be held on March 17 – which falls within the month of Ramadan. The term of the current parliamentary assembly expires on May 28. The law dictates that the EC must initiate the process of holding the elections 120 days before the parliamentary term expires – which means the election date falls on Ramadan.
If the MDP plays its cards well it can emerge as the largest party in the parliament. In Maldives democratic system, parliament approval is required for major decisions by the executive including appointment of ministers.
Importantly Maldives parliament controlled by the MDP passed a bill to ease impeachment of the President and Vice President. The amendments to articles 49, 202 and 203 of the parliament’s regulations which ease the process of impeaching the president were approved by parliament, as proposed by the General-Purpose Committee paving the way for impeachment of the President or the Vice President. Reasons an impeachment motion can be initiated against the President, or the vice president are - Violation of the tenet Islamic religion; Violation of the constitution; Misconduct unsuited to the office of the president or the vice president; Incapacity in undertaking the responsibilities of the president or the vice president.
No Maldivian president has been impeached to date. However, two vice presidents were impeached during PPM’s first administration.
This apart unpopular decisions by the President including those going against the Indian interest can be reversed by the parliament.
Possibly recognizing the fate in the election on March 27, President Muizzu has asked India to withdraw the troops based in the country by March 15.
Thus, rather than getting into a bitter contest playing out in the mainstream and social media and needlessly contesting with China despite the clear hand of Beijing in many of the formulations of President India, New Delhi needs to play its card right in the run up to the parliamentary polls as it already has a winning hand and not be found complacent as it was apparently was prior to the Presidential polls in November last year.