India Defence: Indian Air Force, Atma Nirbharta and Foreign Aerospace QUADs

Amidst commitment to Atma Nirbharta in Defence, India needs to sustain defence technical cooperation partnerships with four countries – France, Russia, United States and Israel to sustain a capable Indian Air Force fleet which will act as a deterrence to the adversaries.

Indian Air Force [IAF] 94^th Anniversary, celebrated on October 08, has brought the limelight on India’s premier aerospace [though not accepted formally] force, which has performed commendably in the second round of Operation Sindoor, causing severe damage to several Pakistani air bases while raising concerns of escalation at least at one – the Kirana Hills.

The IAF’s combat fighter deficiency has been debated for some time.

Providing some clarity on induction numbers, the outgoing Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal A P Singh said in his annual pre-IAF Day media briefing that the force hopes to induct at least 32 aircraft every year, while the requirement is 36 to 40 aircraft.

In his calculation, he cited 20 LCA Mk1A each year, compared with 24 fighters proposed by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd [HAL] and the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) Rafale fighter, the contract for which is to be finalised by the end of this financial year [26/27].

The annual induction would add up to approximately 32 aircraft, but that would be post 2029-2030 when the first Rafale fighter will be inducted.

As of now, HAL, as per the Defence Secretary, Mr Rajesh K Singh, has “27 airframes ready, 11 engines from GE have come, and the other 16 airframes have been fitted with canopy engines and flown. GE has promised four engines per month during this year so that we will get 12 engines in the rest of the year. We will be able to induct at least one squadron of LCA MK1A at the end of the year,” as per Mr Singh.

The IAF Chief said that of the 12 additional Su-30 aircraft planned, with six jets delivered each year, annual induction could rise to 30 to 35-40 aircraft, provided all plans move forward as expected.

The IAF also plans to induct seven AMCA squadrons starting around 2035, even as the force may consider a fifth-generation Su-57 fighter.

Underlying the IAF combat fighter induction is India’s dependency on a QUAD of foreign countries to deliver – the [1] United States -aero engines, [2] France – Rafale and Safran for aero engines, [3] Russia – Su-30 MKI and Su-57 if inducted and [4] Israel for a mix of key components or assistance in production from radars to missiles.

The India-France aerospace partnership is expected to expand over the next few decades, especially once the 6th-generation FCAS partnership is inked. India will be a critical partner in this programme given that Germany and Airbus have terminated the agreement with the French.

In the case of Su-57 induction, the same paradigm will hold for Russia, which remains a key partner, with 8 to 10 Sukhoi squadrons upgraded.

The United States, with its aero-engine breakthrough in the combat-fighter segment and its Predator drones, will remain salient for Iran, as will other segments such as transport and helicopters, including the Indian Navy.

This is the reality for Atma Nir Bharata and applies to all air forces worldwide, except perhaps the U.S. and France. Russia and China have a co-dependency dyad.

India should thus take a pragmatic view of indigenisation rather than expecting to manufacture an entire complex system, such as a fighter aircraft, when it is only now making forays into indigenous development.

This would entail sustaining the defence technical cooperation partnerships with the aerospace QUAD rather than shying away from this reality.