India China Relations: Making up the Diplomacy Gap

There was positive news on the India China relations after a long time with the posting of a ambassador after a gap of 18 months.

China’s new ambassador designate to India, Xu Feihong, is now in India with the highest diplomatic post of India’s Northern Neighbour remaining vacant for 18 months after the departure of Sun Weidong

Sun Weidong was an old India hand, but his role was circumscribed by the outbreak of open hostilities between the two countries in June 2020 and border standoff thereafter.

On the contrary, Xi Feihong does not have any previous exposure to India but is a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s committee of the foreign ministry and an assistant minister of foreign affairs. His only exposure to the region as such has been as an ambassador to Afghanistan from 2011 to 2013.

Possibly Beijing views the necessity of a fresh approach to India, or it is not expecting relations to pick up substantially to post an ambassador with deeper understanding of the country and nuances of India China relations. That the post was vacant for 18 months was testimony enough of the possible significance given to relations with India by the Chinese.

The contrarian approach by the Indian and Chinese side to the standoff on the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh is a tangle that Xu may have to work on with erosion of strategic trust a crucial factor. While China believes that the standoff should be in its “appropriate place” in the overall relationship India has made progress in bilateral relations incumbent on resolution of the same.

In his most recent interview Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishanker with the PTI said, "We would hope that there is a resolution of the remaining issues out there. These issues mainly pertain to patrolling rights and patrolling abilities there," he said. "I would not link it to the prime minister's interview per se. I think the prime minister was giving a big picture viewpoint and his big picture viewpoint was a very reasonable viewpoint which is after all as neighbours, every country wants good relations with its neighbours," he said.

The External Affairs Minister played down the interview of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Newsweek where he had indicated of a possible normalization. "But today, our relations with China are not normal because the peace and tranquility in the border areas has been disturbed. So, he was expressing the hope that the Chinese side should realise that the present situation is not in its own interest," Jaishankar said.

Xu has started off well with positive statements as would be expected from a new incumbent in an interview with China’s state-run CGTN news channel, “I will do my best to deepen understanding and friendship between the two peoples, expand exchanges and cooperation in various fields and improve and advance the bilateral relationship,” Xu said, adding that he hoped to have the support of the Indian government.

 “As President Xi Jinping said, if China and India speak with one voice, the whole world will listen. If the two countries join hands, the whole world pays attention,” he said.

He also reiterated the familiar tone of the understanding between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi that both countries are “cooperation partners, not competitors, and we reached an important common understanding that our two countries are each other’s development opportunities, not threats.”

China and India hold similar positions on global issues he said and “closer communication and coordination on global and regional affairs will not only bring opportunities to both countries and to the world, but also add stability and positivity to international relations,” he added. 

Interestingly, with imports from China crossing over $100 billion in FY24, China has overtaken the US to become India’s largest trading partner after a gap of two years, as per data released by the think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

India’s bilateral trade with China in FY24 was $118.4 billion as imports increased by 3.24 per cent to $101.7 billion and exports rose by 8.7 per cent to $16.67 billion in FY24 compared to FY23, GTRI data showed.

Exports to China remained stagnant between FY19 and FY24 while imports have surged by nearly 45 per cent which has resulted in widening of the trade deficit from $53.57 billion in FY 2019 to $85.09 billion in FY 2024.

However, with numerous productivity linked schemes in various stages of progress the outlook on trade may not be as positive as hitherto fore and could be a challenge for the new Ambassador.

Assessment

An ambassador in place provides huge advantage as the accessibility of the plenipotentiary both in India and in the Chinese establishment in Beijing will be far deeper than a Charge d

Affaire. To that extent the posting of Xu is a positive trend.

Much will depend on the strategic direction that India China relations assumes post the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections in June this year. Against the backdrop of growing geopolitical competition in which China and India appear to be on the other sides of the poles and the active regional rivalry between Beijing and New Delhi in South Asia, Ambassador Xu will have his task cut out.