Indian and Chinese armies are now on a faceoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) for 27 months. Several military and diplomatic meetings have been held to break the logjam the latest one being the 16th Senior Commanders held in Moldo on the Indian side of the LAC on July 17th four months after the last one on March 11.
The talks were led by the Leh based 14 Corps commander Lt-General Anindya Sengupta and South Xinjiang Military District chief Major General Yang Lin.
Here is a review of the developments and why a breakthrough on the LAC is unrealistic.
16th Senior Commanders Meet
The joint statement issued after the 16th meeting reiterated the anodyne status of engagement the only positive being the agreement to issue one jointly rather than separately.
The Joint statement states that, “the two sides continued discussions for the resolution of the relevant issues along the LAC in the Western Sector in a constructive and forward-looking manner. They had a frank and in-depth exchange of views in this regard, in keeping with the guidance provided by the State Leaders to work for the resolution of the remaining issues at the earliest”.
“The two sides reaffirmed that the resolution of remaining issues would help in restoration of peace and tranquillity along the LAC in the Western Sector and enable progress in bilateral relations,” it added.
“In the interim, the two sides agreed to maintain the security and stability on the ground in the Western Sector. The two sides agreed to stay in close contact and maintain dialogue through military and diplomatic channels and work out a mutually acceptable resolution of the remaining issues at the earliest”, the statement ends.
Shri Arindam Bagchi, Official Spokesperson in a media briefing on July 21, 2022 on the senior commanders talks, said, “our point as you know, has been a larger issue, which says that if you can resolve the issues particularly on disengagement and that would help in de-escalation and restoration of peace and tranquillity along the LAC in the Western sector and that would be the right step towards enabling a progress in the bilateral relations”.
“I think that remains our view, this graded process of having de-escalation, disengagement and then peace and tranquillity on the border which would help in progress in the bilateral relations”.
The Daily Telegraph in fact quoted a senior Union Home Minister official to state that the Chinese side yet again raked up the 1959 claim line. “It’s very obvious that they want resolution of the border dispute on their own terms as their troops are already inside India-claimed lines at multiple places. During the talks, they revived the 1959 claim line while pushing their claims along the LAC. The Indian side completely rejected it, saying it has never accepted the so-called unilaterally defined 1959 LAC,” the official said.
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Diplomacy – High Level Meets
Now there is hope that Foreign Ministers of the two Asian powers will meet on the side lines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) annual foreign ministers meet on July 28-29, so are the defence ministers expected to do so. This comes even as the foreign ministers have held bilateral meetings at least twice in the past four months in March and July this year.
There is a new Indian Ambassador in Beijing and a warm welcome that was portrayed in the media had led to much speculation, yet the only outcome was on engagement in multilateral forums. Wang Yi conveyed to the Indian ambassador Pradeep Rawat at a meeting in Beijing that the two should carry out more engagements in multilateral forums.
Wang approved of foreign minister S Jaishankar publicly expressed disapproval of "European centralism and objections to external forces meddling in China India relations." "The common interests between China and India far outweigh the differences. The two sides should bear in mind the overall interests of bilateral relations, help each other succeed instead of engaging in attrition, strengthen cooperation instead of guarding against each other, and enhance trust instead of being suspicious of each other," said Wang in his meeting with Rawat as per the Times of India.
Infrastructure Expansion
India and China continue to expand their infrastructure in the hinterland and conduct a series of exercises. Shri Arindam Bagchi, Official Spokesperson in a media briefing on July 21, 2022, on being questioned on various activities on the LAC related to infrastructure stated, “Please be assured that government keeps a constant watch on all developments having a bearing on India’s security and takes all necessary measures to safeguard the same. I'll make that as a general comment”. China is also constructing border villages the latest one revealed was in Doklam which falls in Bhutan.
Other Issues
There are multiple issues some people to people such as the future of Indian medical students who are studying in China uncertain as Beijing continues to follow a Zero COVID 19 policy. 23,000 Indian students are awaiting clearance for the past two years. minister of state for external affairs V Muraleedharan to a question in Lok Sabha during the ongoing monsoon session of Parliament on July 22 said, “The two sides are currently in touch with each other to work out further modalities for facilitating the return of Indian medical students to China,” Muraleedharan said.
On the other hand, India’s actions in enforcing economic stringency against Chinese firms operating in the country has irked China which has called for fair play. Notwithstanding this India China trade is continuing to reach new highs reaching over $ 100 billion with limited reduction in the deficit for India.
Importantly the visit of His Holiness Dalai Lama to Union Territory of Ladakh was held almost simultaneously with the Senior Commanders Talks. While His Holiness refused to comment on the India China standoff he called for peaceful resolution of differences.
Conclusion – Prisoner’s Dilemma lacks Incentives
A breakthrough in the standoff on the Line of Actual Control is unlikely due to fundamental differences between the two sides who are negotiating now from a position of no return.
India is seeking the status quo by return of troops on the Line of Actual Control whereas China wants to use the same as a leverage for resetting overall relations between the two sides including in the trade and economic sphere.
Meanwhile Chinese negotiating stance historically has been of a delayed step by step approach as seen in the past.
In the game theory, Prisoner’s Dilemma denotes those two rational players will not cooperate even if the outcome is of advantage to both. Internally a compromise is not expected to create any dividends politically for China or India at this stage.
Moreover, payoffs of siding against each other in the international context appear to be more and thus the LAC will remain in a logjam.