Forecast on Left Wing Extremism in India July 2025

The Indian government has set an ambitious goal to eradicate Naxalism by March 31, 2026, and recent developments suggest it’s making substantial headway toward that target. Union Home Minister Amit Shah recently reaffirmed this commitment, highlighting that most states previously affected by Naxal activity are now considered free of such influence.  

The overall areas under Naxal influence have also shrunk as development is set to reach remote areas in the forested heartland in Central India.  Maoists being on the back foot are expected to use IEDs extensively while also carrying out attacks on soft targets and infrastructure and mining companies indulging in extortion. Attempts to target informers will also see death of innocent civilians either relatives of surrendered Maoists and others.

Expansion of Forward Operating Bases is anticipated in Chhattisgarh. Security forces will also attempt to expand the footprint in Odisha and Jharkhand.

With nine months left to achieve the target, however it remains to be seen how far the aim can be achieved even as the Home Minister has ruled out any negotiations with the rebels.

This is evidently a political issue with the opposition Congress leaders in States as Telangana having called for talks with the Maoists. Calls by political parties and leaders for talks with the Maoists are likely to grow in Telangana but are unlikely to be heeded to by the Central leadership.

Even as several top leaders including of the Politburo and the Central Committee have been eliminated, the remainder may continue to rally the rump of the movement indulging in criminal activities while monsoon may contain active operations by security forces.

Thus, on one hand while reduction of violence, decapacitation of top leaders of the Naxals and general reduction in the area under their influence is anticipated, total elimination is likely to remain an elusive goal due to several intertwined factors - socio political, economic and military.

Status of Naxal Influence – June 2025

Four districts of Bastar sub-division—Bijapur, Sukma, Narayanpur, and Kanker—were identified as the most affected LWE districts. Six districts of Chhattisgarh, including Bastar, Dhamtari, and Rajnandgaon, will be specially monitored for any kind of resurgence. 

The problem of Naxalism is limited to only one district Balaghat district of Madhya Pradesh said Director General of Police Kailash Makwana. 

The Maharashtra govt has declared that Maoist influence in the state is now confined to just 16 talukas, with 12 in Gadchiroli district and four in Gondia, signalling a significant decline. A government resolution (GR) highlights the waning strength of the Maoist movement, particularly in their former stronghold of Abujmarh, straddling Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh.

Security forces estimate that only around 30 armed fighters of the People's Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) and 15 logistics supporters remain active in the region, with their leadership facing an imminent collapse.