Some Hits and Misses on conflict scenarios with reference to India by the US DNI.
Annual Threat Assessment Of The U.S. Intelligence Community published on February 5, 2024 by the U.S. government’s Office of the Director of National Intelligence [DNI] highlights India in the context of inter state conflicts with China and Pakistan.
The DNI Assessment includes four scenarios for interstate conflicts two of which figures India and similarly two China [a common with India] including maritime scenario while the fourth is between Azerbaijan–Armenia in the Caucasus.
The DNI warns that, “interstate conflict can have broader cascading security, economic, and humanitarian implications on a regional and even global scale. The following are a few of the potential conflicts between states that could spill over with repercussions that may require immediate U.S. attention.
The two scenarios involving India are related to India–China the genesis of which is assessed to be “shared disputed border between India and China, which is expected to strain bilateral relationship.
“While the two sides have not engaged in significant cross-border clashes since 2020, they are maintaining large troop deployments, and sporadic encounters between opposing forces risk miscalculation and escalation into armed conflict”, says the report. It however fails to mention the number of confidence building measures and ongoing talks at the military and diplomatic level which has kept the possibility of escalation low for now.
On India Pakistan scenario, the DNI asssess that the two countries will continue with the fragile calm in relationship after, “renewal of a cease-fire along the Line of Control in early 2021,” whle failing to use, “this period of calm to rebuild their bilateral ties as each government has focused on more pressing domestic priorities including election perpetrations and campaigning and for Pakistan, concerns over rising militant attacks in its west”.
The root cause is identified as “Pakistan’s long history of supporting anti-India militant groups and India’s increased willingness, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations raise the risk of escalation during a crisis”.
“There remains the potential for an event to trigger a rapid escalation,” warns the DNI assessment.
Despite the rhetoric evident on both sides of the India Pakistan border particularly with reference to Kashmir and terrorism, while there is limited scope of improvement in relations at least till the Lok Sabha elections are held in Delhi, the possibility of “rapid escalation,” remains low for now given multiple checks and balances and high threshold for triggering a war like scenario.
Importantly in the nuclear section again the DNI assessment states, “potential for heightened tension between Pakistan and India could increase the risk of nuclear escalation”.
Given the alarming assessment by the DNI it remains to be seen if India and Pakistan seek to tamper down tensions at least in the nuclear domain.