Despite Indian Outreach Maldives Continues China Tilt

Recognizing the outcome of the Presidential elections in Maldives as a genuine aspiration of the people of the country to elect a candidate who had stood on the platform of prioritizing indigenous sovereignty over dependence on external powers such as India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the first to reach out to Dr Mohammad Muizzu the President elect.

Several high-level interactions have been held with Prime Minister Narendra Modi having a bilateral in the UAE on the sidelines of the COP 28 deliberations with President Muizzu.

India sent a Minister of State – Mr Kiren Rijuju for the inauguration of the President earlier and has acknowledged the Maldives government desire to mov out Indian troops.

Despite the demonstration of positivity from the Indian side, Maldives new government has sustained the China tilt that was implied but not explicitly stated. Now it has come out up front.

WION reported that Maldives did not send a representative for the Colombo Security Conclave a regional dialogue of countries in the Indian Ocean region that is steered by India and has Maldives, Mauritius, and Sri Lanka as member at the National Security Advisers (NSAs) level. Bangladesh and Seychelles participate in the meetings as Observer States.

On the other hand, Maldives Vice President Hussain Mohamed Latheef was in China for the meeting of 'China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Development Cooperation,' organised by the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) in Yunnan.

Vice President Hussain Mohamed Latheef participating in the forum ‘China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Development Cooperation'; said the recently sworn-in Maldivian President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu and his administration are dedicated to fortifying the long-standing relations between China and the Maldives – which he described was built upon the foundation of mutual respect and shared goals.

He expressed eagerness to explore novel avenues of collaboration and cooperation with China, fostering a dynamic partnership bringing tangible benefits to both nations. Speaking further, VP Latheef expressed Maldives’ readiness to forge stronger bonds, share expertise, and work hand in hand towards a resilient and prosperous Indian Ocean Region.

Separately the Economic Minister Mohamed Saeed who was also in Yunnan stated that Chinese government has provided assurance of increasing flights to the Maldives and developmental projects carried out by China in the Maldives.

In a post on X, Minister Saeed stated, “A positive change as a result; hopeful days,” he added. So more projects on the lines of Sinamale’ bridge project and the development of Hiyaa flats in Hulhumale’ Phase II can be anticipated. 

On the presence of Indian troops in Maldives, Shri Arindam Bagchi, Official Spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs in India said in a media briefing on November 06, “I would refer you to the conversation that took place between Prime Minister and President of Maldives, newly elected President of Maldives, which happened in Dubai. As you know, the troops or military personnel or Indian personnel that you refer to in Maldives, you know, they are for the platforms that are provided by India and these platforms have been providing much needed humanitarian assistance and medical evacuation facilities to the people of Maldives. And this has been consistently appreciated by the Government of Maldives”.

“And as I mentioned, in Dubai, during the conversation, Prime Minister and President of Maldives discussed ways to further deepen our partnership. In this regard, they agreed to set up a core group. And let us see how we will be guided by what the core group says. So for the moment, that would be my response to this,” Bagchi said.

More details of the core group are not available for now, but it is apparent that the Muizzu administration is not awaiting for the meeting to create greater space for China in Maldives.

Background Current Developments in Rift with India

Bucking past trends as well as strategic rationale, President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu, choose Turkey for the first official visit. In the past Presidents have made the first visit to India the closest partner with long standing ties. But having won on the powerful appeal of India Out, Muizzu has played safe and avoided visiting New Delhi first.

Speaking to the press at Velana International Airport (VIA) on December 03 after returning from his maiden trip abroad since assuming office – President Muizzu said his government, the day after assuming office, officially requested to withdraw the Indian troops. He assured that the decision will not change in the future. “It is not a remark made during the campaign to secure votes. Because I am a Maldivian, I wish to put forward Maldivian citizens and the interests of the nation. Maldivians come to me first,” he said.

“During all efforts undertaken before this and efforts undertaken to date, the Indian government has come to an agreement with us to withdraw the troops,” he added. 

This comes after President Muizzu met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Twenty-Eighth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) in Dubai, UAE.

President said PM Modi conveyed that he respected the democratic decision made by the Maldivian people.

It is not clear if the agreement has been reached during talks with the Prime Minister or with the officials earlier as India has been reluctant to pull out troops from Maldives given the significance of these for provision of assistance in surveillance of EEZ of the Maldives and also for HADR [humanitarian assistance and disaster relief].

There are differences over the exact number of Indian troops with some reports indicating the number to be 77 essentially to look after the naval assets for surveillance.      24 personnel were to manage the first helicopter, 25 to manage the Dornier aircraft, 26 to manage the second helicopter, and two more for maintenance and engineering.

However, during a press conference held on December 03, President Muizzu said the number of Indian soldiers has now risen to 89, adding there was a chance of the number increasing even further. MDP’s Baarah MP Ahmed Abdulla submitted the emergency motion during the parliamentary sitting seeking more information on the issue.

On the agreements with India by the previous government, a high-level committee has been formed to address difficulties faced in the undertaking of projects initiated by India in the Maldives. “Both nations have agreed to form a high-level committee that can take immediate decisions with respect to projects, including the biggest project which is the bridge project proceeding near Male’, alongside situations arising concerning loans and other national crises,” he said. India Ministry of External Affairs indicated that a “core group,” is being formed for the purpose.

As the Indian Ministry of External Affairs highlights, Maldives’ proximity to the west coast of India (barely 70 nautical miles away from Minicoy and 300 nautical miles away from India’s West coast), and its situation at the hub of commercial sea lanes running through the Indian Ocean imbues it with significant strategic importance to India.

In turn this is the reason for Chinese influence in the atoll nation to ensure that there is a degree of control over the sea lanes by regimes that are favourable to it. Muizzu's election success in September hinged on a sustained campaign against India's outsized political and economic clout in the Maldives, and specifically his pledge to eject Indian forces.

Interestingly, while Dr Muizzu avoided the first trip to India, his Vice President and Economic Affairs Minister is already in China. Vice President Hussain Mohamed Latheef is scheduled to address the ‘China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Development Cooperation' organized by the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) in Kunming, Yunnan Province in China being held on December 07 and 08. He is accompanied by Economic Minister Mohamed Saeed on this trip. So much for President Muizzu’s claim of being neutral and keeping Maldives interests first – not siding with India and China.

Stability Trends

The World Bank warned that the Maldives faces significant fiscal challenges, having failed to achieve its targets to reduce fiscal deficits, the national debt is projected to hover above 115 percent of GDP over the medium term. It its latest Maldives Development Update, Batten Down the Hatches, the World Bank said Maldives faces significant economic risks from rising spending, high debt and external shocks, despite a projected 6.5 percent growth in real GDP in 2023, and an average of 5.4 percent from 2024 to 2025.     

Faris H. Hadad-Zervos, the World Bank Country Director for Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka, said that while Maldives has shown remarkable resilience and recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, it will need to remain vigilant in the face of new and emerging shocks such as conflicts around the world, price volatilities in global markets, and high inflation affecting the disposable income of people in major tourist markets.

Grim Portends Ahead

While Dr Muizzu is a popularly elected President he was propelled by former President Abdullah Yameen who could not stand for the post himself being disqualified. Yameen’s coalition the PPP PNC’s support was behind the win. With a rift with Yameen, the challenge of political support remains a concern as the opposition MDP is in a majority in the parliament.

A rift with India on the pull out of Indian troops and greater alignment with China will be contra-intuitive strategically for Maldives resulting in another strand of instability.

Tallying up economy is a challenge even though this may be partly inherited.  With a national debt projected to hover above 115 percent of GDP over the medium term, the President could well be inclined to tilt towards China which may result in greater fiscal allegiance with Beijing a “trap,” as many countries in the region as Sri Lanka has realized.

NOTE ALL PHOTOS COURTESY PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE MALDIVES