28 Point Proposal for Ending War in Ukraine: An Explosive Trial Balloon?

At best, the 28 Point Peace Plan [Plan] that has been developed by the United States principal negotiating team could be seen as a trial ballon.

At its worst, undermining the edifice of the principles of the UN Charter for resorting to war and blaming the victim for the so far interminable cycle of violence which has led to millions of uniformed and civilians killed in the so called, “Special Military Operation,” by Russia.

The Peace Plan though not officially published by the United States White House or the Department of State has been endorsed by key officials of the Trump administration which is evident from the statement quoted by PBS Radio of White House, spokesperson Karoline Leavitt who as the news channel claims had been quietly developed special envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“They have been engaging with both sides, Russia and Ukraine equally, to understand what these countries would commit to in order to see a lasting and durable peace. The president supports this plan. It's a good plan for both Russia and Ukraine. And we believe that it should be acceptable to both sides,” Leavitt is quoted.

"This plan was crafted to reflect the realities of the situation after five years of devastating war to find the best win-win scenario, where both parties gain more than they must give," Leavitt has said separately.

Universal Principles Violated

The basic flaw of the Plan as it is a sweeping attempt to equate the aggressor and the victim while emasculating not just Ukraine but also European Union and NATO – which has held peace on the Continent so far through the powerful shield of deterrence.

Yet NATO or the EU members have not been consulted with the US possibly acting as an arbitrator on their behalf without their knowing.

In addition, key principles of conflict termination and resolution  which are violated. The plan violates the international principles of aggression and victim’s rights.

In any negotiation the aggressor has to feel the pinch thereby demonstrating that in simple terms aggression does not pay not just in the case of the Russia Ukraine scenario but also sending a signal to others who may have such intentions.

For a just peace, justice should be seen not just done but also seen for the thousands of casualties of the War.

Sovereign restrictions are being placed on not only Ukraine but on Europe as well.

No Side is Happy with the Plan

Ironically both sides Ukraine and Europe on one hand and Russia on the other seem to be dissatisfied by the Peace Plant.

While statements by the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have been sober stating, “We agreed that our teams will work on these proposals to ensure it's all genuine. We will not make any sharp statements, and we're geared up for clear and honest work”.

European Foreign Policy Makers have been blunt.

Kaja Kallas, European Foreign Policy Chief has said, “The pressure must be on the aggressor, not on the victim. Rewarding aggression will only invite more of it. The E.U. has a very clear two-point plan, first, weaken Russia, second, support Ukraine”.

Jean-Noel Barrot, French Europe and Foreign Affairs Minister (through interpreter) said, “Peace cannot mean capitulation. We do not want Ukraine to surrender. As you can imagine, the Ukrainians, who have heroically resisted Russia's uninhibited aggression for more than three years, will never accept any form of capitulation”.

In fact it appears that Russian President Vladimir Putin too may not be seeing this as a final proposal and is quoted as saying, “A group of individuals, this criminal group, an organized criminal community that has usurped power and under the pretext of the need to continue the war with Russia, is holding power in Ukraine for personal enrichment. But we all have our own goals. The main one, of course, is achieving the goals of the special military operation”.

Conclusion

On the face of it thus the plan appears to be a trial balloon which may undergo many iterations.

So what happens remains to be seen as we track the developments closely but here is a summary of the 28 points proposal as summarised from Al Jazeera.

1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.

2. A comprehensive, non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe.

3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.

4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the US, to resolve all security issues.

5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

6. The size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.

8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.

9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.

10. The US will provide security guarantee with caveats.

11. Ukraine is eligible for European Union (EU) membership.

12. A powerful global package of measures will be provided to rebuild Ukraine

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy. Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.

14. Russian Frozen funds will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine etc.

15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.

16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.

17. The US and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.

18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programmes in schools and society. All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.

21. Territories: Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the US. Kherson and Zaporizhia will be frozen along the line of contact, de facto recognition along the line of contact. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.

22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force.

23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnipro River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:

26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war.

27. This agreement will be legally binding.

28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to the agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.