Elevated Geopolitical Risks in May 2018

April saw two seminal summits in the Asia Pacific. The first was of leaders of two emerging powers– India and China. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to Wuhan China for an Informal Summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The strategic communication established between the top leaders may have come as a relief to geo-political risk managers after the 73 day standoff between militaries of the two countries in 2017. The second summit was held of leaders of the two Korea’s which determined to formally end the Korean War, which ended in an Armistice in 1953. North Korea committed to capping nuclear build up and a yet undefined denuclearization. Under the circumstances suggested elevated geo-political risks may seem counter intuitive, but pragmatic appraisal of summits and the ongoing developments particularly in West Asia (Middle East) would lead to the conclusion that the world may not be safer during the month (May 2018) and beyond. Here is a brief review of the reasons for this pessimistic assessment....................

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