Fighting to Escalate in Northern Myanmar Arakan Post Monsoon

 Analysts in Myanmar suspect that the fighting in Northern Myanmarand the Rakhine will escalate post the monsoon in October. The heavy spell ofrains in Myanmar leads to flooding of rivers and rivulets making movement slowand restricting mobility. Thus the tempo of operations is lower than the drywinter and the pre-monsoon season.This year however intense clashes were witnessed duringmonsoons despite a suspension of active operations announce by the Myanmar orthe Tatmadaw.OnAugust 15 attacks by three ethnic groups under the umbrella of NorthernAlliance, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), an ethnic Palaung group,Arakan Army (AA), and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)struck at a series of military targets causing 15 fatalities, including ninesoldiers, with nine more injured.The three groups called themselves,“Brotherhood Alliance”In Rakhine state in the West where fighting has intensifiedwith the AA this year a police convoy was attacked on 20 August killing acaptain and wounding four constables.  The NationalReconciliation and Peace Centre (NRPC) held talks with representatives of the NorthernAlliance Burma and suspension of operations was agreed upon by the Tatmadawtill 21 September when further negotiations will be held. ......................

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