There are at least ten indicators that beginning of the end of this phase of the War in Ukraine may well be around the corner.
As the Russian and Ukrainian forces engage in hard fought battles for towns and cities in the East and the South with destruction and attrition leading to heavy losses both human and material, a point of exhaustion may have been reached where gains made may not be commensurate with the losses to achieve the same.
In pithy terms cost benefit analysis may not add up to success for either side.
This apart there are other reasons that may lead to the conclusion that this phase of the War in Ukraine may be about to end.
That said the long war may continue for the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has very expressly stated that restoration of sovereignty remains a principal objective and in this there is evidence to show that the Ukrainian public supports their leader.
However, given the status an operational if not a strategic pause is necessary.
This will also provide scope for negotiations though the hopes are slender but cessation of hostilities on the front line and a cease fire can be expected.
Here is a summary of reasons why this may be end of the beginning of this phase of the Ukraine War-
Firstly, operational exhaustion - both sides have expended their reserves manpower as well a munitions and there is a need for a pause.
Losses have been heavy in what are known as classic, “Meat Grinder,” tactics a term American General Matthew Ridgway used during the Korean war where fieldcraft and fire power dictates outcomes.
There will be a need for break to muster resources for Russians from their integral reserves including some from allies as Belarus and for Ukraine induction, training and operational employment of systems provided by the US and West.
Readjustment from the Warsaw Pact military equipment such as guns and munitions to NATO grade is another factor which is expected to require time for Ukrainian Armed Forces and thus a pause.
Secondly without regrouping and strengthening forces, gains achieved are likely to be limited while casualties heavy thus adding another argument to the hypothesis.
Thirdly preliminary objectives that may have been set by Russian President Vladimir Putin - control of the Donbas may be achieved in the coming weeks as only a couple of major cities are to be secured even though fighting will be tough
Fourthly there is a degree of exhaustion in the international community with the War including in Europe, the enthusiasm in supporting Ukraine in February and March this year has worn off despite much being made of expansion of NATO and offer of European Union membership to Ukraine.
Fifthly there is global weariness as the economic pain in terms of energy and food security is now more than evident with developing countries the worst affected.
Sixthly Russia too feels diplomatically isolated, standing alone as it seems despite some symbolic support by China, India and multilateral groups as the BRICS and the SCO. There is a sense that Russians may feel that they have lost far more than gained which is only in territorial terms.
Seventhly Russia is facing the economic pinch of sanctions and there is a high degree of urgency to break the logjam. This factor may lead to Moscow’s willingness for negotiations in case some concessions are offered on sanctions.
Eighthly Europe too is feeling the pain of sanctions with belt tightening measures ordered by governments in Western Europe even those who have the economic heft as Germany.
Ninthly there have been some recent attempts at outreach. For instance, last month after the G 7 Summit, Indonesian President Joko (Jokowi) Widodo made a trip to Kyiv holding a crucial meeting with the Ukrainian President, the first non western leader to do so. This was followed by a visit to Russia carrying a message of sorts. Though no tangible outcome is evident, the willingness of the two warring leaders to engage through intermediaries is a good omen, but how this is pursued remains to be seen.
Similarly Russian President recently has had conversations with the Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with both of whom he has good equations, hopefully end of hostilities may have been broached.
Finally, the G 20 Summit in Indonesia in November provides some prospects of a breakthrough particularly on the energy and food front. Much ground work will have to be done prior to the same and it is not clear if Indonesia has the diplomatic muscle however there is a strong will in the Indonesian President and ministry of foreign affairs to achieve a breakthrough which is a positive.
Conclusion
A summary of factors above does lead us to the conclusion that we may be seeing the beginning of end of this phase of the war. That should provide a window for negotiations and how this is exploited remains to be seen?