The last few weeks have seen eruption of new tensions between Pakistan and the administration in Kabul led by the Taliban. A terror attack on the Pakistan Ambassador in Kabul is the latest in a series of incidents which has raised ire in both the capitals.
The Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) branch claimed responsibility for the attack on Pakistani Embassy in Kabul, the Afghan capital on December 2.
On the day of the incident Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan confirmed the attack and said that Ubaid Ul Rehman Nizamani, the head of mission for the Pakistan embassy in Kabul was the main target of the attackers who escaped unhurt, however a body guard protecting Mr. Nizamani sustained injuries and was evacuated by a helicopter.
The Taliban administration in Afghanistan denounced the attack on Pakistani embassy and vowed to prevent similar attacks against diplomatic missions and premises.
Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesperson for the incumbent administration in Afghanistan, stated in a tweet on, December 5, that the special forces of the current administration arrested the assailant, a “foreign national” and ISIS member. “The arrested person is a foreign national and a member of the ISIS group,” Zabihullah Mujahid wrote on Twitter and also claimed that a foreign party was involved to sour the “fraternal” relationship between the two Islamic neighbors without revealing the identity or nationality of the person arrested.
Impact on Taliban Pakistan Relations
Pakistani Foreign Minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, spoke with Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi, the acting foreign minister of Afghanistan, over the phone regarding the attack as reported by Khaama Press.
Muttaqi promised during his conversation that the security of the Pakistani embassy will receive special attention, and he will make every attempt to hunt down and bring to justice the culprits of this event said the Khaama report.
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Zardari reassured that such acts cannot sever ties between the two brotherly nations and Islamabad does not have any plans of closing down the embassy or evacuating the diplomats.
In an indicator that Pakistan was not closing down relations with the Taliban administration in a hurry, the first consignment of medicines from Pakistan has arrived in Afghanistan, and subsequent batches totaling over 200 million Pakistani rupees are also being delivered. The medicines are being provided to Muhammad Ali Jinnah Hospital in Kabul the Afghan capital, Nishtar Kidney Center in Jalalabad of Nangarhar province, and Amanullah Logari Hospital in Logar in eastern Afghanistan which have been operationalized by Pakistan.
The fact that the attack on the Ambassador occurred days after the visit of the Pakistan Minister of state for foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar is an indicator how far there is resentment in some groups in Kabul against the neighbouring country. Khar visited Kabul and met the Taliban’s acting Minister of Foreign Affairs and other high ranking officials where a number of issues which were causing tensions including border firing were discussed.
ISK or TTP
Immediately on occurrence of the attack it was believed that the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan [TTP] also known as the Pakistan Taliban which had reneged cease fire with Pak government may have been behind the attack on the Pakistan Ambassador in Kabul based on the motive factor.
Thus there is some scepticism that Islamic State of Khorasan has claimed the assassination attempt on Pakistan’s chief diplomat in Afghanistan.
Pakistan's foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said they are expecting to work with an “interim authority” in Afghanistan to “address the challenges posed by the terrorist organizations," in an interview with Al-Jazeera in response to a question asked about TTP.
“As far as the TTP is concerned. Absolutely, they have been involved in heinous attacks in the past. Unfortunately, terrorist attacks are still ongoing and we expect with our neighbors in Afghanistan and interim authorities there to address the challenges posed by the terrorist organizations,” he is quoted by Al Jazeera.
The interior minister of Pakistan, Rana Sanaullah had also claimed that the TTP was attacking the country using Afghanistan soil. “See, this promise is not only for us, but for the whole world. They (the Taliban) promised to the whole world that the Afghanistan’s soil would not be used for any terrorism. If they (the Taliban) follow it, it is not only in the benefit of Pakistan but it is their own benefit, if they want to go with the world,” Pakistan's interior minister Rana Sanaullah said.
The administration in Kabul however has consistently denied any links with the TTP. “The Islamic Emirate is committed to good relations with all countries, particularly neighboring countries… As the Islamic Emirate considers security important for itself, the security is also in the interest of the neighboring countries,” said Bilal Karimi, deputy spokesman for the Islamic Emirate.
The claim by the ISK comes on the same day U.S. National Intelligence Director Avril Haines warned that ISIS-K is listed among top several terrorist groups that could pose a threat to the United States.
The possibility of the ISK and the TTP joining forces also cannot be ruled out.
Attack on HIG Leader
Interestingly on the same day of the attack on the Pakistan Ambassador, a suicide attack was launched on the attack on office of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, former prime minister and leader of the Hezb-e-Islami office. 3 gunmen stormed the group’s HQ building in Kabul trying to reach the mosque inside the compound where the Friday prayer was in progress. Two militants were killed and the third one managed to escape.
Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, condemned the attack on Hezb-e-Islami office and, vowed to the leader of the party Gulbuddin Hekmatyar that the Islamic Emirate will take more measures to prevent such attacks in the future. There was not reaction from the acting interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani however on both the incidents including the attack on the Pakistan Ambassador.
Pakistan Victim of Policy of Supporting Terror
Pakistan may have become the victim of its own perfidy on terrorism. Pakistan has maintained close ties with the Afghan Taliban and was one of the three countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, that formally recognized the previous Taliban government in Kabul from 1996 to 2001.
Pakistani military was routinely accused of sheltering and covertly supporting Taliban fighters as they waged an insurgency against U.S.-led NATO troops providing security to the internationally backed former Afghan government including by former US President Donald Trump.
But with reports of the TTP granted shelter in Afghanistan and the outfit egged on by the Kabul administration particularly the Haqqani network to have peace talks with the Pak government the reality of managing hydra headed monsters as terrorist groups may now be evident to Islamabad, particularly when Kabul is denying to have any talks on TTP sanctuaries.
Taliban Overtures to India
The Taliban administration on the other hand is making overtures towards India. Head of the political office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Suhail Shaheen in Qatar has sought Indian investments in infrastructure projects in Afghanistan.
Construction of hospitals, Salma Dam in Herat, participation in the electricity transmission project from Central Asia to Afghanistan, and construction of industrial parks are some of the projects in which India played a central role cited the Bakhtar News Agency. “Afghanistan is open to Indian investment, including urban infrastructure. In a recent meeting with the Chargé d’Affaires of the Indian Embassy in Kabul, the Minister of Urban Development of Afghanistan asked India to partake in Afghanistan’s infrastructure projects,” Suhail Shaheen said as per the Taliban’s official Bakhtar News Agency.
Conclusion
When the Taliban seized power in Kabul on August 15th last year there was jubilation in Islamabad and a quiet air of triumphalism prevailed of having succeeded in placing a key ally in power in Afghanistan. Pakistan however failed to realise that the Taliban of the year 2022 was far different from that of the 1990’s. More over the inclination of the group to support the TTP and provide sanctuaries to other global and regional terrorist groups was underestimated.
The Taliban on the other hand appear to be reaching out to India given the understanding that it is New Delhi which has a large market for trade and can deliver on development.
At the same time India must be wary and avoid being set up by the Taliban to counter Pakistan for in that case the outreach will remain transitional.