The XIV BRICS Summit of the grouping, which includes the key emerging powers spanning four continents, is expected to be held in the last week of June and hosted by China, the chair of the group for 2022. This will also be the third Summit that will be held virtually. India has confirmed the participation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's participation as per a Hindu report.
This will also be the third Summit after India and China faceoff developed in Ladakh in October 2020. While leaders of both the countries, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping attended these summits, the XII one being hosted by India these were held virtually and thus there was no bilateral pull aside meet between the two leaders as is the normal practice.
For instance, during the QUAD summit held in Tokyo, there were bilateral meets held by Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the Australian Prime Minister Antony Albanese. During these one-on-one meets, there is a scope for developing an understanding of each other's points of view and achieving a breakthrough on a thorny issue.
A virtual summit on the other hand does not facilitate a bilateral. This has possibly prevented a political breakthrough in the present India China standoff. A point to note is that while the Indian and the Chinese leaders had met a number of times in multiple forums prior to the differences on the Line of Actual Control [LAC] being weaponised, there has been no such opportunity thereafter due to outbreak of COVID 19.
Will the 14th BRICS Summit be any different, will the Indian and Chinese leaders go into the Summit with continued standoff on the LAC is a moot question. This comes even as Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to participate in the Summit even as the “Special Military Operation,” is ongoing in Ukraine.
India and China have not named Russia as the aggressor in any of the resolutions held in the UN Security Council or other forums and have separately called for resolution of differences through diplomacy and dialogue.
Possibly the theme is likely to be repeated in the BRICS joint statement even though Brazil a member has taken a diametrically opposite approach in calling out Russia for the aggression.
Can Indian and Chinese leaders appeal to the Russian President to resolve the Ukraine crisis through dialogue when troops of the two countries – India Army and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are in stand off remains to be seen. But first a look at the ground situation as obtained in Eastern Ladakh.
Ground Situation
The Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have settled for a long summer of frontline deployment on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh amongst other sectors. Preparations – operational and logistics have been improved infrastructure and deployment posture is underway. Confidence building measures at the tactical level – battalion and brigade have been put into place
PLA is reported to have built two bridges across the narrowest part of Pangong Tso at Khurnak Fort where the lake is only 354 meters wide. One bridge was 6m wide with the capacity to handle jeeps.
The second bridge is 11m wide and has the capacity to handle 70 tons of load.
PLA engineers are building a road from the bridge to Moldo garrison across Chushul and a PLA military base camp behind Spanggur Tso.
This will facilitate rapid movement of troops from the Rudog base to the forward areas as well as faster tactical deployment of troops within the theatre to avoid being upstaged by India as on August 29-21, 2020, when the Indian Army and the Special Frontier Force occupied the Kailash Range.
In response to media queries regarding reports of a second bridge being constructed across Pangong Lake by China, the Ministry of External Affairs Official Spokesperson Shri Arindam Bagchi said: "We have seen reports of a bridge being constructed by China on Pangong Lake alongside its earlier bridge. Both these bridges are in areas that have continued to be under the illegal occupation of China since the 1960s. We have never accepted such illegal occupation of our territory, nor have we accepted the unjustified Chinese claim or such construction activities”.
General Manoj Pande, Chief of Army Staff on 12 May 2022 made a maiden visit to Ladakh region after assuming the reins of the Indian Army to review operational readiness. The Army Chief was briefed on the security situation along the borders, focusing on Eastern Ladakh. The forces maintained a high level of operational readiness while maintaining a high tempo of capability development.
Separately speaking on the situation in Eastern Ladakh, Army chief General Manoj Pande questioned China’s desire for settlement that will provide the basis for the delineation and demarcation of the boundary. Indian Army aimed to “re-establish trust and tranquillity” between the two sides locked in a standoff in the Ladakh sector “but it can’t be a one-way affair.” “The basic issue remains the resolution of the border. What we see is that China’s intent has been to keep the boundary issue alive. What we need as a country is a ‘whole of nation’ approach and in the military domain, this is to prevent and counter any attempt to alter the status quo at the line of actual control (LAC),” said Pande, who took over as army chief on April 30.
Possibility of A Senior Commanders Meeting
Senior Commanders of Corps Commanders of the Indian Army and the PLA is a format that has been accepted for resolution of the standoffs, which are at three main points – PP 15, Depsang Plains and Demchok.
In the run-up to the possibility of a Senior Commanders meeting the 24th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) was held on 31 May 2022. As per the Indian Ministry of External Affairs statement on the issue, the two sides reviewed the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Western Sector of India-China border areas. They recalled that since the last meeting of WMCC in November 2021, both sides have held the 14th and 15th meetings of the Senior Commanders in January and March 2022 respectively. The Foreign Minister of China, H.E. Mr. Wang Yi, also visited India in March 2022 and held discussions with the External Affairs Minister and the National Security Advisor.
The two sides exchanged views on the current situation along the LAC in the Western Sector in Eastern Ladakh. They agreed that as instructed by the two Foreign Ministers, both sides should continue the discussions through diplomatic and military channels to resolve the remaining issues along the LAC at the earliest so as to create conditions for restoration of normalcy in bilateral relations.
In this context, they agreed to hold the next (16th) round of the Senior Commanders meeting at an early date to achieve the objective of complete disengagement from all friction points along the LAC in the Western Sector in accordance with the existing bilateral agreements and protocols as indicated in the Ministry of External Affairs Press Release.
The mention of a 16th Round at an early date has led to much discussion on holding the Senior Commanders Conference prior to the BRICS Summit.
Possibility of BRICS Summit as A Trigger
On the BRICS Summit, the website of BRICS Summit hosted by China indicates that, “As the BRICS Chair of 2022, China looks forward to working with BRICS partners and making full use of the 14th BRICS Summit to promote the BRICS spirit of openness, inclusiveness and win-win cooperation, strengthen practical cooperation in all fields and embark on a new journey of BRICS cooperation.”
If this is the theme, then there should be some scope for a resolution of the most significant difference that is between BRICS members – Indian China-LAC standoff.
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