Even as the focus of politics in South Asia has been centred in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, Nepal is seeing intense activity with elections for the House of Representatives and the Provincial assembles due in November. Here is a brief review of how the politics is shaping in Nepal-
Beyond Local Polls
The Election Commission of Nepal has recommended federal and provincial elections on November 18. Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Thapaliya told the Kantipur Post, “We can hold both elections in a single day across the country.” As per the Election Commission Act 2017, the government announces election dates in consultation with the Election Commission.
While a coalition of parties led by the Nepali Congress contested the local polls and succeeded in gaining more seats than the opposition led by CPN UML, there are multiple challenges anticipated in evolving the same combination for the provincial and house of representatives’ polls that are planned in Nepal for November this year.
Evidently political parties estimate no party will be able to gain a majority in the House of Representatives, thus there will have to be a coalition. What form this coalition will take is unclear for now as there is a move for building a socialist alliance which is led by the Communist Party Maoist Centre leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Nepali Congress who leads the present coalition government is wary of fighting the polls alone as well as allowing a socialist coalition to emerge.
A repeat of the coalition of communist parties that emerged in the run up to the 2017 polls is also a possibility though remote for now. Meanwhile regional stakeholders are expected to chip in with Dahal making a critical visit to New Delhi while Liu Jianchao, the Head of the International Liaison Department of the Chinese Communist Party was in Kathmandu in July, while Dahal was in Delhi on invitation by the ruling BJP chief J P Nadda.
Swing Players
Maoist Centre Pushpa Kamal Dahal is seen as an ambitious leader who seeks the post of the Prime Minister but his party CPN Maoist will lack the numbers to propel him to the top post. A coalition in which he can be a kingmaker appears to be Dahal’s aim for now. However, Dahal’s active initiatives to build a left socialist alliance has led concerns of his intention and thus the Nepal Congress is keeping close eye on Dahal’s wiles as he may ditch the present ruling one at an opportune moment.
Dahal’s present left front idea is minus the UML and seeks to rope in former colleague Baburam Bhattarai, CPN (Unified Socialist), a party formed after splitting from the UML, and Janata Samajbadi Party. “An immediate front of the parties, forces and individuals who believe socialism is the goal is the need of the hour,” Dahal stated in his 10-page “Brief Political Document” presented at the Central Committee (CC) meeting. Bhattarai, recently expelled from the Janata Samajbadi Party, registered Nepal Samajbadi Party with the Election Commission on July 28. “Today we registered a new party at the Election Commission and the election symbol of our party is eye,” Bhattarai told the Post. “Earlier I fought for the promulgation of the new constitution through the Constituent Assembly but now the political objective is to create a new political and governance system through socialism for political, economic and social transformation.”
Estimates of Political Fortunes
There are varying estimates of how the parties will win seats. A Nepali Congress assessment of the upcoming polls suggests the party can win at least 77 out of 165 seats under the direct election system if parties fight elections independently, without any alliances. This will imply that it would have to work with other parties to form a government. The Congress is planning to keep 100 constituencies and leave the remaining 65 for the coalition partners to divide. The coalition partners on the other hand want 85 seats thus the Congress will have to cede 20 seats which will reduce the margin for the target of at least 75 to 80 seats or more. More over anti-incumbency is another factor that the Nepali Congress will have to content with as leader of the coalition, impact of decisions of the government will be high.
External Intervention
Days after a Chinese delegation wrapped up its Nepal visit, aiming to consolidate engagements between the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of China, CPN (Maoist Centre) chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal headed for New Delhi “to build” party-to-party relations with India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.
Liu Jianchao, the Head of the International Liaison Department of the Chinese Communist Party, held a meeting with CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal as well as senior leaders of other parties including the Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. China has been instrumental in working out a coalition of the communist socialist block in 2017 which went on to gain a majority in the 2017 polls though the alliance did not last.
In Delhi Dahal met Foreign Minister Dr S Jaishanker who was the highest senior government functionary to have talks with him whereas a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi was slated but not held for reasons unknown. It is apparent that India is also wary of Dahal who is known to shift partners in a coalition midway and is now apparently looking at building a socialist block.
Interestingly Nepali Congress leader Arzu Rana Deuba, spouse of Prime Minister Deuba, was also in Delhi while Dahal was ostensibly for medical treatment of one of her close relatives.
The United States is also increasingly active in the political and security sphere with the visit of Donald Lu State Department points person for Nepal visiting Kathmandu on July 28-29.
Conclusion
As of now the elections in Nepal to be held in November are too close to call. Much will depend on how coalitions are formed and seats distributed within the same. The left socialist parties are expected to be form a part of the next government but the alignment of parties in a future coalition appears uncertain for now.