The importance of persuading an adversary to avoid an aggressive posture is essential as a preemptive approach. This entails dissuasion.
Dissuasion precede deterrence and includes "actions taken to increase the target's perception of the anticipated cost and/or decrease its perception of the likely benefits from developing, expanding, or transferring a military capability that would be threatening or otherwise undesirable…..”. [1]
Dissuasion is also viewed by some as, "pre-deterrence" that is to discourage a potential adversary from creating such a capability. In case an adversary acquires such a capability dissuasion will move to deterrence. [2] Dissuasion is thus futuristic in nature and includes national as well as military means. [3]
While India has perforce adopted a strategy of defensive deterrence on the land frontier against China, in the maritime front dissuasion if the preferred option and appears to be working well so far.
One aspect of dissuasion is to work with strategic partners with mutually complimentary objectives.
Towards this end United States Indo Pacific Command or INDOPACOM has been active in expanding engagement with militaries across the region including India.
INDOPACOM Dissuasion Through Defence Cooperation Activities
INDOPACOM has been maintaining a high tempo of defence cooperation activity in the Indo Pacific.
A survey of the news reports issued by the INDOPACOM on military to military activities from 01 to 15 August – a short period of a fortnight demonstrates the intensity of activity undertaken.
Importantly some of these such as Rim of the Pacific 2022 were large multi-national events while others which were bilateral as Super Garuda Shield with Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) was expanded in terms of numbers fielded as well as level of command participation.
Exercises were supplemented by high level visits and port calls. During such visits multiple local engagements were also conducted to add to the outreach.
Yuan Wang 5 in Sri Lanka
India’s attempt to deny adversarial navies from operating in the Indian Ocean Region in the close periphery is another facet of dissuasion. This was evident recently with objections to the visit of PLA boat Yuan Wang 5 in Sri Lanka
After delay due to objections by India, Colombo Page repported that the Chinese Scientific Research Ship Yuan Wang 5 docked in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port on August 16.
Permission for docking was given by Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Yuan Wang 5 was scheduled to pay a port call at the port of Hambantota from 11-17 August, 2022 for replenishment purposes but the Sri Lankan government had requested the Chinese government to delay its arrival due to security concerns raised by India as per the Colombo Page.
India is concerned over China establishing precedence for docking of naval ships at Hambantota as also enforcing a mandate for establishing freedom of navigation operations [FONOPS]
Conclusion
Dissuasion is a dynamic activity thus will have to be a continuous process that is sustainable by building partnerships with likeminded stakeholders for security and stability in the strategic environment of interest here the Indo Pacific. At the same time China with partners will attempt to create their own network of strategic partnerships laced with joint military activity. China is pushing back against US expansion in the Indo Pacific. Thus mutually exclusive activities by adversarial actors in the Indo Pacific are expected ahead.
[1] Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr.Executive Director, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Dissuasion Strategy. https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/Other/15-F-0901_DOC_01_Dissuasion_Strategy_200612.pdf [2] Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. [3] Rushton, James A. Operationalizing dissuasion. Naval Postgraduate School. https://calhoun.nps.edu/handle/10945/2797