Over the last one week, after we discussed vertical and horizontal escalation, there has been widening of arc of violence and objectives in Ukraine indicating multiple dynamics at play from the influence, military to political.
While geographic span appears to be restricted to areas, “annexed,” by Russia, nature of missile and drone attacks on a panoply of strategic infrastructure targets indicates vertical escalation which will pose the biggest challenge for Ukraine.
This is so as sustaining daily life can become a challenge as the harsh winter is about to set in and if there is no electricity for heating or even lighting up homes there would be a wilting of support to the government not only in Ukraine but across Europe given suturing of gas supply by Russia. Thus, the people now appear to be the target even as there is a degree of stalemate in military operations possibly given approaching winter.
Here is a detailed review -
People as the “Target”
The objective is now to influence Ukrainians with raids on cities and towns accompanied by attacks on electricity supply infrastructure and disrupt normalcy as air raid sirens force people into bomb shelters amidst missile and drone strikes.
As Clausewitz remarks - a nation can be subjugated by targeting will of the people to resist which in turn would lead to pressure on leadership to negotiate even though the military may not have been defeated on the battlefield.
Russia appears to have shifted to just such a strategy as Russian fire assaults in recent weeks have included military as well as civilian targets impacting Ukrainian public at large and thus coercive missile and drone attacks have been undertaken on numerous cities with capital Kyiv naturally attaining primacy.
At the second level large infrastructure such as the Zaporizhian nuclear plant and a dam in Kherson is said to be the next target, though the latter may be a part of the information campaign launched by both sides Russia and Ukraine. Both contestants claim the other sides intention to target the dam which can cause massive floods displacing and drowning thousands of people.
The Zaporizhian nuclear plant is quiet for now even though there are sporadic missile and artillery strikes possibly due to international pressure and intervention of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This has now been overtaken by dams as in Kherson on the radar.
Causing heavy damage to a dam which can result in a breach is not easy but not impossible, more over even if the same is not attacked, the very threat can have strong influence on the public which may raise spectre of a numbing tragedy particularly for those falling in the downward drift.
The memories of Second World War Operation Chastise of May 1943 in Germany more popularly known as “Dam Busters,” has faded but the outcome of the raids was more psychological than material.
At the same time constant raids on cities may prove counter productive as this may lead to hardening resistance of the public which is normally the case seen in the past even during the Second World War.
People out of sheer fatalism or a fierce determination against is seen as brutal injustice tend to support the government more when bombed.
What would be the reaction in the face a deluge of a dam burst is not clear and hopefully will never be tested.
Winter Operations & Negotiations
With winter fast approaching the possibility of conduct of operations is being debated. A point to note is that the two armed forces – Russia and Ukraine are accustomed to live in the extreme temperatures and are not likely to be immobilised as the Napoleon’s French or Hitlers panzers on the gates of Moscow.
Thus, the famed, “Russian winter,” may not have an impact on the forces but conduct of major operations will be limited.
Both sides will be preparing for operating in the winter. Ukrainian forces are being provided winter clothing and equipment by the West which may facilitate launch of localised offensives with gains.
The lull if it pervades provides an opportunity for negotiations even though conditions that are expected to trigger the same are not fortuitous.
Ukraine will not accept Russian, “annexation,” of lost oblasts and Russia will not relent having legitimised the same through the Dumas howsoever unrealistic this may seem in international eyes.
Thus, a climb down for both sides does not appear likely for now.
Nuclear - Strategic Communications
In the past few weeks there is some hope that the mention of the N word is a bluff and Russia continues to maintain a rational view on destructiveness of atomic weapons even tactical.
Moreover recent communications between the UK and Russian defence leadership on an incident in the Black Sea indicates that the threshold has not been crossed. Yet the spectre will continue to haunt.
Geopolitics in the West
Moscow would be obviously viewing with some glee as the former Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev exclaimed through a tweet on resignation of the UK Prime Minister Elizabeth Truss. The next prime minister in London will have to shift focus from Ukraine which has been a priority for Boris Johnson, predecessor of Truss and the lady herself to the economy, which may also bring some relief to Moscow
With US Congressional elections entering the final phase, how far Russia is attempting to influence these is not clear. Some Republican candidates are reportedly calling for a reduction in commitment to Ukraine already.
Drones
In a classic case of deniability, Russia and Iran have in unison disclaimed use of Iranian suicide drones Shahed even though Ukraine has been insisting otherwise.
Important to note is the swarm of suicide drones have not been very effective as was believed as a large number have been brought down by Ukrainian air defences and the level of success may have been only 30%.
Yet the cost benefit analysis of low cost drones versus air defence missiles may be a dampener for Ukraine and Russia appears to be banking on their use to save precious missiles.
Conclusion
The long Russia Ukraine war may be entering a new phase in the winters where the focus will shift from the military to influencing the people and the leadership in Kyiv. More about it later.