Nov 20, 2010

Internal political dimension

There is a strong internal political dimension both in India and Sri Lanka on the Sri Lankan Tamil issue. While Rajapaksa has politically strengthened himself in Sri Lanka giving himself a free hand, Dr Man Mohan Singh does not have this luxury. Despite the Congress party’s success in the last parliamentary election, the ruling United Progressive Alliance is conditioned by the inclinations of  its close ally in Tamil Nadu – the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) led by its octogenarian leader and Tamil Nadu chief minister M Karunanidhi.

President Rajapaksa had never been popular in Chennai both because of the Eelam War and after that due to his seemingly indifferent attitude in providing political space for Tamil minority. New Delhi’s CWG invitation to Rajapaksa came at an inconvenient time for Karunanidhi. The visit provided another handle to some of the opposition parties in Tamil Nadu that have already been castigating “Big Brother” DMK of pandering to New Delhi’s policy of condoning Sri Lanka’s excesses against Tamils during the war.

            As Tamil Nadu assembly elections are nearing two major local political coalitions led by the ruling DMK and its rival the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) are in the process of being reshaped. It is poised at a delicate stage and there is a lot of political posturing and sparring going on in retaining Congress support for DMK. DMK’s aging leader Karunanidhi’s sons are locked in a succession battle introducing an element of uncertainty in the future of the party. To ward off an eruption of internal conflict, Karunanidhi continues to be the chief minister and also leads the party despite incapacitation due to aging. This makes DMK politically more vulnerable than before. And AIADMK chief Ms Jayalalitha already smells political blood so to say.

            Though Sri Lanka issue is not an issue in mainstream politics in the state, Karunanidhi’s handling of it during the Eelam War and its aftermath has exposed his political limitations due to his partnership in central coalition. To compensate for this he had frequently been goading New Delhi for action in a bid to show solidarity with the population on the Sri Lanka Tamil issue. And dutifully New Delhi had been echoing his concerns to Colombo.

Before Rajapaksa’s latest visit to New Delhi, the Tamil Nadu chief Minister briefly met Ms Sonia Gandhi, the Congress Party chief, during her visit to Chennai and submitted a memorandum seeking her help in ensuring rehabilitation of internally-displaced Tamils lodged in camps in Sri Lanka. In the memorandum he said “Inasmuch as the hapless Sri Lankan Tamils continue to suffer in the camps for the last 18 months, there must be some firm political commitment to end sufferings of these people.”

So it was not surprising that Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna echoed similar thoughts when he spoke to the media on the occasion of Rajapaksa’s visit. He said India felt it was “time to act decisively to win over Tamil-speaking Sri Lankans so that their concerns were taken care of adequately.” Prime Minister Dr Man Mohan Singh also used the opportunity provided by the visit to once again express India’s desire for Sri Lanka to act “decisively” on moving towards a political settlement “to bridge the ethnic divide.” 

            Though Rajapaksa understands New Delhi’s political compulsions, he does not want to be seen as a ‘follower’ of India as his support base in Sri Lanka is mostly made up of Southern Sinhala voters. This attitude was evident when Sri Lankan Minister for External Affairs GL Peiris commenting on Rajapaksa-Man Mohan Singh meeting tried to downplay the issue. He said “It was a very cordial meeting. No issue was discussed at length, but India wanted to know our plans. We indicated that we want to talk to a broader spectrum of stakeholders. That is the only way to do this, to get their ideas and to build a consensus.” 

In his interview to the Hindu, he said “The Tamils' response has been good. They are coming on board.” Though there had been some progress on this count, it is not wholly correct to say the Tamil minorities are coming on board. Though the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), former political allies of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), leader P Sampanthan and other Tamil MPs had met the President twice and discussed political issues, their active participation in political mainstream remains an open question.

President Rajapaksa has also gone back on his earlier promise to India on implementing 13th amendment of Sri Lanka constitution to devolve powers to provinces after the war. The 13th amendment came into being after India and Sri Lanka signed a pact in 1987 under which Colombo agreed to devolve powers to provinces to satisfy restive minorities, mainly Tamils. Though 13th amendment has largely lost its relevance in the present Sri Lankan political context, Sri Lanka’s stand has placed New Delhi in piquant situation. Despite this, Sri Lanka would like to do it on its own terms.

During his Delhi visit the Sri Lankan Foreign Minister was categorical on the subject: "It is impossible to talk of exact time frame for implementing the 13th amendment, it is a great mistake to do because if you talk of timeframe and then you are not able to complete the process, it is bound to be conjecture, speculative, then there is erosion of credibility." This shows the lack of credibility in Sri Lanka’s promises.

            If these signals are read collectively, in plain terms, India is not at all happy at the snail’s pace at which Sri Lanka is handling the Tamil issue.  The Indian foreign minister is now scheduled to visit Colombo on November 25. This issue will probably figure again on top of his agenda when he takes part in the India-Sri Lanka Joint Commission (ISJC) meeting scheduled on November 26 and 27. The decision to revive the ISJC meetings was taken during the President’s latest talks with Indian Prime Minister. The meetings, interrupted during the war years, provide a formal forum to thrash out vexing issues between the two countries.

NOV 2010

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