Feb 1, 2011

Violence – Urban Terrorism in Focus

Violence during the month continued with a suicide attack in Bannu on 12 January killing 18 civilians, in Kohat a time bomb in a bus killed 17. Punjab also saw a suicide bomb attack on 25 January with 13 Civilians killed. On 31 January, six people including four police officers were killed and 14 wounded in two bomb blasts in Peshawar, capital of Khyber Pakhtoonwa. One of the attacker was a teenage suicide bomber.

In Karachi 87 suspected targeted killers were arrested in a move to stem the spread of killings in Pakistan’s commercial capital. On 1 January 18 Taliban were killed in drone strikes in North Waziristan followed by 5 on 07 March, 3 on 12 January, 23 on 23 January. Pakistan Army continued to dominate the Mohmand, Orakzai area reaching into the rural pockets employing air strikes, artillery and heavy kinetic weapons. A large number of terrorists were reportedly killed in these strikes though there was no independent confirmation of these casualties.

Data by Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) indicated that Pakistan had gained some ground against militant violence in 2010 and outlined urban “terrorism” as the main threat with a need for comprehensive strategy. The number of incidents of “violence and terrorism” in Pakistan fell by 11 per cent in 2010 compared with 2009. Suicide attacks fell by 22 per cent to 68 in 2010, compared with 87 in 2009 as per PIPS. 2,113 militant, insurgent and sectarian attacks were reported across the country in 2010, killing 2,913 people. While Pakistan faces a challenge from rural insurgency and urban terrorism the latter is now threatening the country. Thus a comprehensive strategy to counter militancy in the tribal areas and terrorism in the urban areas would have to be adopted. For this an intelligence led approach would prove beneficial as there is now enough evidence that the Taliban in concert with other groups such as the LeT, the Lashkar e Jhangvi are determined to cause mayhem in the streets of Karachi and Lahore and thus the State would have to meet the new challenge.

Targeted suicide attacks are now the favourite weapon of the Taliban and other terror groups in Pakistan. There is concerted effort to target the police and intelligence agencies so as to pull down the establishment and undermine morale and reduce resistance. At another level anti Taliban leaders and militias are also being targeted. In the next tier is the sectarian groups Shia, Barlevis or Sufis who are shrine worshippers, their shrines are also the ire of the terrorists. The military must in conjunction with the Police work out a viable plan to ensure that these sensitive targets are effectively indentified and protected for it is important that defensive and offensive or intelligence measures are used in tandem. The Pakistan army and other security forces have fortified their camps to avoid suicide attacks. Other vulnerable places would also have to be protected to ensure that there is greater deterrence to terrorists in launching attacks also to increase their vulnerability.

An intelligence led approach is best so that terror hubs in cities and organizations that support the same are penetrated. Thus a joint strategy to counter the challenge in FATA by launching counter militancy operations and in the urban areas to target terror cells and their supporters would have to be launched at the earliest to ensure the cities in the country are safe. While the capacity of the Pakistani intelligence agencies such as the ISI is good externally there is a need now to demonstrate the same within the country.

The other challenge is in the south in Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest and economically rich province. Balochistan remains a multi vector conflict with tribal identities of the past intermixed with Islamic and regional character today along with resource exploitation perceived by the majority. More over the vast area and large natural reserves makes the area difficult to control due to the scabrous terrain. The issue has become extremely complex and is unlikely to see any immediate resolution howsoever hard human rights groups and Supreme Court in Pakistan may attempt to bring equity and justice with allegations of mass burials and large number of displaced persons. Thus there can be only incremental improvements in the situation and not major breakthroughs expected in the days ahead.