Aug 8, 2010

Pakistan"s Instability Vectors

Karachi Targeted Killings

Assassinations and targeted killings in Karachi, Pakistan"s commercial capital are ongoing now for a long period and have many dimensions apart from political rivalry between the Awami National Party (ANP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). There are issues related to real estate, contracts, weapons running and so on apart from criminal networks which have been existing in the city for long. More over there is a complex dynamics of ethnicity with Mohajirs who have migrated from India after Partition clashing with the Pashtuns while the local Sindhi are also hostile along with a section of the Balochis. The main coalition Party, Pakistan People"s Party (PPP) is required to take the lead but the party"s Home Minister Zulfikar Mirza and Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah have failed to interject between the ANP and the MQM leading to continued terror attacks chronologically indicated as below-

4 - 12 people were killed by unknown assailants in different incidents.

20 - Six killed in Malir, Orangi Town and Gulistan-e-Jauher areas

21 " Three killed and their bodies disposed in Karachi's Pak Colony, Surjani Town and Baldia Town.

24 -      Four people killed in an armed attack on a party office of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in Gulistan-i-Jauhar. Seven vehicles were set on fire by unidentified men in Gulistan-i-Jauhar, Landhi and Bufferzone areas while a furniture market was also set alight in Gulistan-i-Jauhar.

25        Five shot dead in separate incidents

            Meanwhile in Balochistan, Central Secretary-General of the Balochistan National Party - Mengal (BNP - M) and former senator Habib Jalib Baloch was shot dead in Quetta on 14 July. This is likely to be a major set back to the efforts of the government to bring peace to the troubled province and also assuage the sentiment of separatism there. Previously four people had been killed on 5 July. The killing of the Balochistan National Party - Mengal's Central Secretary-General Habib Jalib Baloch is however speculated to be by intelligence agencies given that the outfit involved was unheard of and Mr Jalib was a leading moderate with some left inclinations.

US Drone Attacks

There have been 112 suspected US drone strikes between January 2008 and end of June 2010 as per research by the BBC Urdu News service report with approximately 900 killed during the period in these strikes whereas during the same period Taliban backlash has resulted in  killing more than 1,700 people and injuring many more, the BBC research shows. The main areas of strike including fatalities caused by suspected drone attacks were S Waziristan 279, N Waziristan 386, Bajaur 14,
Bannu 5, Orakzai 8, Kurram 54. On the other hand terrorist attacks with casualties were Peshawar 362, Lahore 253, Khyber 120, Rawalpindi 98, Lakki Marwat 93, Kohat 91, Dera Ismail Khan 77, Lower Dir 75, Karachi 69, Dera Ghazi Khan 50. [Based on Daily Times Report]. During the month three drone attacks were recorded date wise as follows:-

15 - Suspected US missiles killed seven people and injured five in Mada Khel area of the northwest region.

24 - 18 militants including foreign fighters were killed in the Angoor Adda area of South Waziristan bordering Afghanistan

25- Four militants were killed in Shaktoi area in South Waziristan.

Army Operations

3 - Ten suspected militants killed and several injured in Orakzai Agency.

5  - 10 militants killed and four injured when fighter jets bombed hideouts in Orakzai. 

6 - Pakistani forces killed 23 militants in Lower Dir district.

9 - Pakistani fighter jets killed 23 Taliban fighters and injured over 20 others in Dalai, Kandai and Zorando Kalay areas of Orakzai Agency

10 - Fifteen militants were killed when jet fighters attacked their hideouts in the Orakzai.

15 - 15 suspected militants killed in different parts of the Orakzai tribal region.

17 - 15 suspected militants killed in the Orakzai Agency.

18 - 25 killed in fighter jets and helicopter gun ships bombed in Orakzai Agency.

19 " 42 militants killed in Kurram and Orakzai Agency.

21 - 25 militants killed in clashes with security forces in the Orakzai tribal region.

25  -  Twenty-one militants were killed during a fresh military operation in Kurram Agency and Upper Orakzai Agency

Taliban Violence

9 - A suicide bomber killed over 65 people and injured over a 100 in an attack outside the office of a senior government official in the Mohmand Pashtun tribal region in Yakaghund tehsil.

10 - Eleven people killed when unknown armed men fired on a passenger bus in Afghanistan"s Waza area on way from Parchinar in South Waziristan to Peshawar via Afghanistan.

      - Three Pakistani soldiers killed in Taliban attack on an army patrol in Makeen district of South Waziristan area

15 - A suicide attack targeted a Pakistani military convoy killing five in the northwestern Swat valley.

16 - Eight killed in Khyber, on major supply route for NATO troops.

17 - 18 people killed as militants ambushed a convoy of private vehicles in the restive Kurram tribal region.

18 - A suicide bomber wounded several worshippers in Sargodha city in Punjab

24 - The only son of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Minister for Information, Mian Iftikhar Hussein, Mian Rashid Hussein was shot dead by some unknown gunmen in his native town Pabbi

26 -  A suicide bomber killed seven people while trying to walk into the home of Mian Iftikhar Hussain, information minister in Pakistan's northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

An Appraisal

            On 6 July the Army claimed that 80 per cent of the Kurram tribal region has been cleared of militants and the military operation in the area was still underway. However continued terror attacks in the country have raised serious questions of the viability of the strategy to tackle the insurgency which has been based on  a militaristic hard line and kinetic operations approach. While a large number of casualties to terrorists have been claimed whether these are of actual Taliban or include over ground supporters or merely tribal who are not with the government such as the Mehsuds remains to be seen. What is also seen is that support mechanisms of the Taliban seem to be strong in the tribal areas and have also spread in Punjab therefore it is providing  the Taliban adequate infrastructure to strike terror through periodic high value suicide bomb attacks as that in Mohmand. While number of attacks has certainly gone down their intensity seems to be almost the same, thereby indicating that there is more pain for the people now not just of the tribal area but also the minority community in other areas of Pakistan.

            The Mohmand blasts in particular were a grim reminder of the manner in which the Taliban are ensuring that any negotiations between the government and the tribal are scuttled. The Taliban has been carrying out attacks on jirgas and other activities where such groups are gathering to make peace with the government for it knows that in case they lose support of the tribal they would find it difficult to survive. A large number of foreign elements in the area are also suspect and the pro and anti government Taliban are fueling such incidents. Government efforts to win over the Mehsuds have also not succeeded so far and it is also attempting to get some more local tribes to come to its side.

Given the state of conduct of counter militancy and counter terrorism operations in Pakistan and past history of employment of laws, the Anti-Terrorism (Amendment) Bill 2010 tabled in the Senate by Interior Minister Rehman Malik to amend the Anti-Terrorism Act 1997 is unlikely to have a major impact on the government"s abilities to clamp down on terror unless the existing and new laws are implemented in full measure. Firstly the Pakistan Army responsible for operations in the Western tribal areas has not been requiring any laws really to enforce its writ and has been taking very harsh and para legal measures to do so in the process having displaced a large number of people, under the environment there is no checks on the Army per se. In the counter terror field the political angle cannot be overlooked and here the anti terrorism bill has a scope for abuse thereby reducing its impact and scope for the accused to get away given long legal procedures involved. Therefore a holistic appraisal may reveal that the Anti-Terrorism (Amendment) Bill 2010 in unlikely to have a major impact on the ongoing operations in the country.

AUG 2010

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