Jun 22, 2011

Expanding Military and Nuclear Dimensions

The Budget demand of the armed forces for the fiscal year 2011-2012 was PakRs 586 billion (USD for defence. The allocations considered so far have been PakRs 495 billion “The Ministry of Finance has set the defence budget at Rs 495 billion for the next financial year 2011-12, some 11.7 percent more than the budgetary allocation of Rs 443 billion for the outgoing fiscal year 2010-11,” sources  were reported by the Daily Times. This was against recommendations of the Ministry of Defence of PakRs 525 billion. The Ministry of Finance is said to have turned down the request due to resource constraints and large allocations for flood relief. The Armed Forces Development Plan (AFDP) is set at PakRs 120 billion annually with PakRs 125 billion expenditures for counter terrorism which will be offset by reimbursements from Coalition Support Fund. These allotments are over and above the regular defence budget. PakRs 443 billion was allotted for defence budget for the ongoing fiscal year 2010-11 with PakRs 331.5 billion spent during the first nine months (July-March) period of the ongoing fiscal year. [Based on Daily Times report]. The actual defence budget thus works out to be PakRs 740 Billion after the AFDP and the funds allotted for counter terrorism are taken into account.

On the nuclear front, satellite images reveal alarming speed with which Pakistan is rushing to finish weapons-grade nuclear reactor. Aerial images, taken on April 20, show the rapid progress in building of a fourth reactor to produce plutonium in Pakistan's Khushab facility. With Pakistan relying on nuclear weapons to ensure security given the conventional challenges that it faces in up gradation particularly due to low economic growth, an increase in the number of facilities for weapons grade enrichment in the country is well established.

The growth of plutonium enrichment plants is all the more indication that it is going in for tactical nuclear weapons thereby overcoming deficiency in the conventional field and evades plans such as the Cold Start envisaged by the Indian Armed forces. When factored with a doctrine which does not proscribe first use, the Pakistani increase of tactical nuclear weapons will provide it conventional deterrence as well. With the nuclear arsenal now rapidly expanding and reaching the fourth or fifth place as per estimates behind Russia, US, China and UK, the Pakistanis hope that the tactical nuclear weapons capability would provide it a nuclear umbrella.

As if on cue from the Army, the Taliban claimed that they have no plans to attack Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. This came in the wake of the attacks on PNS Mehran as the security of nuclear weapons in the country came up for increased concern. Taliban spokesman, Ehsanullah Ehsan, claimed that this was just America’s “excuse” to pressure Pakistan’s government into fighting the Taliban. The spokesman claimed that the Taliban will not target the only Islamic nuclear bomb in the country.

The Taliban statement on the nuclear weapons has no value or credibility and in case an opportunity so arises the guerrillas would not hesitate in gaining control of the same. More over the veracity of the statement would have to be assessed for there is mention of the United States as the principal enemy whereas normally the Pakistan army and the police and intelligence agencies are the main target. Thus the linking of the intelligence agencies and statement by the Taliban cannot be entirely ruled out given the tone of the same and overall import.