Feb 10, 2012

Maldives: Early Elections May Diffuse Crisis

            Mohammed Waheed Hassan, Vice President of Maldives, was sworn in as president of the atoll nation after incumbent President Mohammed Nasheed resigned following widespread protests on 7 February. Nasheed remarked before he resigned in a televised news conference, "It will be better for the country in the current situation if I resign. I don't want to run the country with an iron fist. I am resigning." Nasheed’s resignation came after reports of rebellion by a section of the police allegedly supporters of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.

While there has been political crisis of sorts with many serrations, including a conflict between Islamic conservatives and moderates, Presidential office and judiciary, parliament and president, political rivalries between Gayoom and Nasheed which reflected differences between ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) a new party floated by Gayoom, the tipping point came when Judge Abdulla Mohamed was held in custody by the Maldives National Defence Forces [MNDF] presumably on the orders of then President Nasheed. With the custody what ever be the reason, Nasheed possibly lost moral authority providing opposition enough grounds for launching an agitation.

Minivan online reported that police joined opposition protests and attacked the headquarters of the MNDF on 7 February with 60-70 MNDF soldiers in tow. The state broadcaster MNBC was taken over by police and opposition protesters, and rebranded Television Maldives (TVM), the name of the institution under Gayoom’s government.  There were also reports in Minivan online that Abdulla Yameen (former President Gayoom’s half brother) and Umar Naseer (former security officer in the regime of President Gayoom) joined the protestors which if true may have also instigated the policemen.

New President Dr Mohamed Waheed Hassan quickly came to action and appointed key ministers to include Dr Mohamed Jameel Ahmed of minority opposition Dhivehi Quamee Party (DQP) as Minister of Home Affairs and Mohamed Nazim as Minister of Defence and National Security. These are said to be hard core loyalists of former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s government and thus opposed to Nasheed.

Even as outsiders were expecting things to settle down news of issue of arrest warrant against former President Nasheed rallied his supporters into action, who were on the streets targeting police and police stations in particular across the widely spread archipelago on 8 and 9 February thereby raising concerns of instability. Nasheed also openly stated that he had been forced out by the gun, thus gaining sympathy across the board as he came to be hailed as, “Mandela of Maldives”. There were also signs of chaos on the streets of Male and other atolls with advisories being issued across the board, tourists canceled travel to the country known as a destination for high end tourism.

 India took an early call on the situation and the Indian Ministry of External Affairs Press briefing on 07 February stated thus – “In response to a question from the media, the official spokesperson conveyed: We have noted the decision of President Mohamed Nasheed to resign in favour of Vice President Dr. Mohamed Waheed. This is an internal matter of the Maldives, to be resolved by Maldivians. We hope that all issues will be resolved in a peaceful and democratic manner. India has traditionally enjoyed close ties of friendship and cooperation with the Maldives. We remain committed to extending the fullest support and cooperation to the Government of Maldives in its endeavour to promote peace and progress in the Maldives and the prosperity and well being of its people. We continue to closely monitor the situation in the Maldives and understand that the Indian expatriate community there is safe”.

However press releases on 8 February which quoted a conversation by Prime Minister Dr Man Mohan Singh with the new President of the country, Dr Waheed were more affirmative in supporting the new dispensation. The text indicated unequivocal support by Dr Man Mohan Singh thus, "I take this opportunity to extend my warm felicitations to you on your assumption of office as President of the Maldives. As a close and friendly neighbour, India will, as always, continue to support the Maldivian people's efforts to build a stable, peaceful and prosperous country. Our two countries share a common destiny and have common security interests, India is committed to working with you and the Government in Maldives to further enhance our close, bilateral cooperation to mutual benefit and for the continued security, progress and prosperity of our two countries”.

Dr Man Mohan Singh’s early call supporting the new dispensation in Maldives led by Dr Waheed has invited criticism particularly after Nasheed came out openly of being wronged. The Prime Minister may have been influenced in his decision due to reasons of stability and threat of anarchy by coming out strongly in favour of Dr Waheed. It is not clear if the government had anticipated reaction by Mr Nasheed who has been a fighter all through and was thus expected to be combative after possibly a threat to his life was over and scope for blood shed limited.

News paper reports also indicated that India had activated the national security adviser’s secretariat and defence crisis management group under the Integrated Defence Staff. This as per a Daily Telegraph report reviewed the situation and comprised of vice-chiefs and director general of operations of the three services along with Director General of Military Intelligence

            Within a couple of days thus the crisis in Maldives assumed different tones with a combative former President Nasheed saying that he was asked to resign at gunpoint. Thus doubts are being raised of the resignation of the President being as voluntary as it was seen in the first instance. However it is very clear that a lobby of his opponents supported by his predecessor and long time President Gayoom had made his continuance in power untenable. Thus he perhaps had limited options.

As a beeline of diplomats who are specialist in the region as US State department representative Robert Blake rush to Male the issue of assuaging Mr Nasheed to ensure immediate stability would be uppermost which should be followed by a concrete plan for elections in the country as soon as possible to bring in a semblance of order.

India has intervened actively throwing the dice with the new government with some observers saying some what prematurely, however the end game alone will tell whether this was a right move or not. At the same time this bestows on the Indian government additional responsibility to ensure that transition is smooth and is not marred by more violence in the atoll nation. For this restraining Nasheed would be necessary which can be achieved by holding early elections in the country thereby ensuring that the change is supported by the people through exercise of ballot.

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