Aug 22, 2011

The Wheels Within Political Wheels

            Nepal’s many power struggles were evident during July. At the first level the conflict within the Unified CPN M or Maoists between the three main leaders, Chairman Dahal and Vice Chairmen’s Baburam Bhattarai and Mohan Vaidya occupied a significant amount of time. A month plus was lost in this internal power struggle of the Party and the scene shifted to inter Party conflict between the Maoists, the Nepal Congress and the CPN UML only by end July. At the end of the parleys, all the three party satraps, Dahal, Mohan Baidya and Dr Baburam Bhattarai got their own men in key positions either in the Parliament or in the government.

            But the Prime Minister Mr Jhalanath Khanal who is aligned with the Maoist Chairman Dahal was left in a quandary. He had to take in new ministers in the cabinet nominated by the Maoists. Khanal seen a part of ultra leftist alliance with Maoist Chairman Dahal was forced to administer oath of office and secrecy to the newly nominated ministers of the UCPN (Maoist) and Madhesi Janadhikar Forum on 1 August despite strong reservations from his own party (CPN-UML) as well as the Nepal Congress. This move indicated loss of support for Mr Khanal and it is only time that he resigns.

            This may lead to another wave of political uncertainty in the country with both the Nepal Congress and the Maoists likely to vie for the Prime Minister’s post in a national unity government.  Until this phase is over and the inter party power relations are rationalized progress in the peace process is unlikely. There is therefore all the more reason to believe that a second extension of the Constituent Assembly (CA) would be due for another three months from August to November.

But the Unified CPN M internal struggle has thrown up interesting power equations. Chairman Dahal was confronted with a united front by Vice Chairmen’s Bhattarai and Baidya. They suspected that Dahal had been playing one against the other to retain his upper hand. Finally matters were settled when Dahal surrendered some of his powers in the parliament and the party to the two subordinates. The alliance is unlikely to survive given that Bhattarai and Baidya have deep political differences. The former is for a federal democratic Nepal while the latter sees the current peace process as a tactical phase in the strategic path of people’s revolution in the country. There is however positive development with the Baidya faction stepping back from its extreme stance and willing to accept the path of electoral democracy for the time being. The hardliners have also agreed to send back PLA personnel in their security detail to the cantonments, something they had so far declined to do, once alternative arrangements are in place. Thus on the whole the Maoist infighting has resulted in some gains though a lot of time has been lost.

India’s concerns of political instability in Nepal and impact on the country’s internal security were well highlighted by the Home Minister Mr P Chidambaram in a meet with Editor’s in New Delhi. Mr P Chidambaram said, “If there was an elected stable government in Nepal that would help build capacity too very quickly. Unfortunately, Nepal has had virtually a caretaker government for many, many months, which means the attention of the government is largely directed towards solving constitutional issues.”  The Home Minister is possibly worried about two issues, one is the Nepalese Maoists links with the Indian Naxal which are essentially ideological but some signs of material support also exist. The second link is that of Nepal acting as transit route to Pakistan’s intelligence activities with fake currency conduit being the main concern.

Given that Mr Baburam Bhattarai has been nominated by the Maoists as the Prime Ministerial candidate, there should be a push from the Indian side to have him in place by putting pressure on the Nepal Congress which would be amenable to Indian minions. This would lead to establishment of a national unity government and hopes of some progress on the peace front.

            Even if such a government is established there is just not enough time for completion of integration of PLA cadres and drafting the Constitution. The Special Committee for integration of guerrillas has to deploy a 120-member team at the cantonment sites to conduct official survey of interests and plans of 19,000 plus combatants. The teams working in four groups need 60-63 days for completion of work. Thus sheer logistics will defy successful completion. More over there are differences in the formation of the armed force proposed on who should lead it, what should be the mandate, how rank structure will be harmonized and what would be the structure of the rehabilitation package and cash handouts. All these are likely to involve some hard bargaining by all sides and will be time consuming.

            Similarly while basic framework of a draft Constitution is ready there are major differences on the form of government, the electoral system and federalism, which may take weeks if not months to resolve given the stakes that parties have in the forthcoming Constitutional structure.

            As for end of August, the best case scenario appears to be commencement of regrouping of combatants and also talks by main parties on the Draft Constitution. Even this modest objective seems unreachable at present.

            With the Economic Survey indicating a growth of merely 3.5 percent, Nepal is in for further woe and this would have major outcome in the political field as well. While the agricultural sector has done well or reasonably well to record a growth of 4 percent plus the industrial sector is at just about 0.3 percent. This is almost in the negative region and is the direct result of political instability in the country as the investment climate has not been conducive for growth. More over primary industries in Nepal were set up by Indian companies who have been vilified thereby many have either closed down their plants or have lowered their production targets. The campaign by Maoist trade unions against the industries has also affected growth.

            The succession plan of the military is now in order. Gen Gaurav Shumsher Rana was promoted to the post of Lieutenant General and will succeed Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) Chhatra Man Singh Gurung. Gurung retires on Sept 9, 2012. As the Nepal Army moves from control of the sovereign to that of an elected government it would have to evolve a transparent promotion policy particularly for higher ranks. While previously the King had the prerogative and apart from seniority other factors such as loyalty had a bearing now these cannot be allowed to hold priority over seniority and professional competence.