Jun 22, 2011

Nepal: The Risks in the Peace Process

The Ninth Amendment Bill proposing extension of the Constituent Assembly (CA) term was tabled in the House at 11:14 pm on 28 May. Tabling the same on 28 May and continuing with the House session uninterrupted thereafter ensured that the decision of the parliament was legal even though it happened on the early morning of 29 May. During the voting in the 596-member assembly, 504 lawmakers voted in favor of CA's extension while four Royalist party members were against it. Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha, an alliance of five Madhes based parties with 71 parliamentarian abstained from voting, there were some absentees. Thus the Bill to extend the term of the CA by three months could be passed with an overwhelming majority.

 Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal addressing the nation on 31 May apologised for failing to draft the new constitution in time within three years. "We have to admit the fact that we have failed to live up to the people's aspirations and the demand of time during the intense and ups and downs of this transitional phase," said the prime minister. "Thus, I, in my capacity as the prime minister, would like to beg pardon on behalf of all the political parties for the failure to turn the people's dream into reality," he added.

Passage of the Bill was based on a five-point deal agreed upon by principal parties, the Unified CPN M or Maoists, the CPN UML and the Nepal Congress. The deal however is so general in nature that there are concerns on most of points and thus there would have to be some heavy political lifting by all sides to ensure success.

However the main difference is that the Agreement has parliamentary approval whereas on previous occasions it was only an inter party one. "There is significant difference between the agreement signed ahead of the term extension this year with that signed last year. Last year's agreement disappeared from the pockets of the top leaders while this year's accord has been owned by the Parliament," parliamentary head Nembang was quoted by Kathmandu Post. "The House will, therefore, monitor the implementation of this agreement." A parliamentary panel has been formed for this purpose.

The main points in the deal involve completion of the peace process within three months, a herculean task now that it has not happened in three years. More over there are many critical issues that remain unresolved and the deal appears beset with contradictions. A detailed analysis of the Five Point Agreement with risks involved and possible outcomes is as per succeeding paragraphs.

Point 1. To complete the basic tasks of the peace process within three months.

The clause appears vague but may include issues related to handing over of weapons to the Central Committee and number of PLA cadres to be absorbed in the new security forces arrangement and related issues. Handing over of weapons along with identification of combatants for reintegration, rehabilitation and voluntary retirement groups followed by absorption in the streams decided would thus be an essential part. The first step in this is handing over of arms which should happen in the next few days to build trust and thus even facilitate the Maoists to bargain for integrating more number of  the PLA than hitherto fore possible.

UCPN (Maoist) Standing Committee has already accepted modality proposed by Nepal Army for integration of PLA combatants. The General Staff meeting of PLA has endorsed this decision, thus there should be no basic opposition for the same. PLA Chief Nanda Kishore Pun, his deputy Chandra Parkash Khanal and commanders of the seven divisions of the PLA agreed that the party had made a "correct decision." The PLA seems to be supporting Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai as against the hard line faction led by Vice Chairman Mohan Baidya. "The military is a delicate issue so it should not be dragged into the ideological differences of senior leaders," a participant was quoted by the commanders as saying. "Consensus within the party and with other parties would form the very basis for a successful integration and rehabilitation process."

The agreed format includes a force with 50-50 representation of the PLA and other security forces operating under the Nepal Army. The secretariat will be headed by the Nepal Army but will also have PLA representation at an appropriate level of leadership. The numbers to be integrated would also have to be resolved with figures varying from 4000 accepted by the Nepal Army and the Nepal Congress to 8000 plus suggested by the Maoists. Finally a compromise may be reached. Other issues relate to modalities for integration, rehabilitation and retrenchment of those who opt to go out. But all these are procedures which can take place once there is delinking of the PLA from weapons and from the Party per se.

            In what could be a good beginning, the Unified CPN M, unilaterally decided to end the two-layer security being provided to its leaders and also bring their vehicles into the legal ambit through proper registration on 1 June. These decisions were taken despite resistance from the hard line faction and if the trend is sustained, the Maoists could well be on the path of joining the democratic mainstream in letter and spirit.

2. To prepare the first draft of the constitution within three months.

The main risk is of time, when there has been no consensus for three years how can there be in three months? Again for drafting of the Constitution, the Dispute Resolution Subcommittee headed by UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal will be the main mechanism to resolve contentious issues. This should provide the way ahead. Thereafter CA deliberations over the first draft of the constitution will be necessary. Public discussion over the draft constitution is also essential. The form of government and electoral system is likely to remain contentious and may delay the process.

3. To implement effectively the various past agreements reached with the Madhesi front including the one to make the Nepal Army an inclusive institution.

This is likely to lead to marginalization of other communities who are already raising their voice. There are a number of disillusioned parties such as the Sanghiya Rastriya Parisad (SRP), an alliance of five ethnic organisations representing the indigenous, Tharuhat, Limbuwan, Tamsaling and other marginalized communities who have burnt copies of the 5 Point Agreement over this issue. Thus stiff resistance is likely to be faced on the streets if not in the CA and would need deft political handling due to sensitivity of the issue.

4. To extend the CA term by three months. With the term extended this point is already addressed. The main challenge however is to complete the task within this period else it may require another extension and what possibly could be the last for the present Assembly.

5. The Prime Minister to resign and pave the way for formation of a consensus national unity government.

There is considerable difference of opinion of when the Prime Minister should resign. The right wing parties want him to do so immediately; the PM is saying he will resign only when national unity government is ready to take over. The issue of the person to be elected as prime minister is also likely to be contentious. The way ahead may be to first select the Party to lead the government and then allow that Party to elect the leader. If political parties attempt to do both concurrently there is likely to be lack of consensus leading to delays with limited time available. Meanwhile the UCPN (Maoist) General Secretary CP Gajurel has already disapproved party Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s demand for resignation of Prime Minster Jhala Nath Khanal. Gajurel who belongs to the hard line faction of the Party led by Mohan Vaidya may create more challenges for Prachanda within the Party.

The present government also cannot continue as it does not constitute a national consensus government as it does not have all party representation given that the main opposition the Nepal Congress is not represented. The way ahead could be a recall of the current government and formation of a new government. It is apparent that given the current state of polity in Nepal such a decision is well nigh impossible in the short three month tenure of the extended CA. Therefore it remains to be seen how the problem is resolved, firstly within the main and most intransigent party the Unified CPN M and secondly in the overall political equations per se.

It would be interesting to see how the power balance has shifted in Nepal with re-emergence of a strong right wing led by Nepal Congress. The Party was marginalized over the last few months and particularly after a strong ultra leftist government came to power. The Party then took to grass roots engagement to rejuvenate itself and thereby assume a larger voice in the Left dominated environment. The right wing parties led by the Nepal Congress, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum-Loktantrik, Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party and Sadbhawana Party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), RPP-Nepal, Rastriya Janashakti Party, Nepali Janata Dal and other fringe parties later joined hands and posed stiff opposition. Coming together of the ultra leftists also forced other parties to unify rather than be marginalized thereby retaining balance. Thus the Left Parties had to listen to the Nepal Congress and others as a two thirds majority for extension of the CA was not possible otherwise. Hopefully this balance will demonstrate the way ahead in Nepal’s polity to facilitate an agreement in the next 90 days on a Draft Constitution and conclusion of the peace process.