May 2, 2010

The Road Ahead: A Perspective

Thepost election political situation in Myanmarcould well be foreseen with the current Prime Minister, Thein Sein anointed bythe military junta to be head of the government. Thein Sein and his coterie ofmilitary leaders who have resigned and also relinquished their military rankshave been identified by top authorities in the country Senior General Than Shweand Maung Ye to be their successors at least in the public and internationalforums. They will also be supported by 25 percent members of the Parliament whoas per the Constitution are to be from the military.

Thustwo layers, one of former military leaders as Thein Sein and the second ofserving military personnel will facilitate control over parliament by the juntain the days ahead. Even though Suu Kyi has appealed to the Supreme Court toannul disqualification of her party the NLD, this is not likely to make amaterial difference and the situation will not change radically as the SupremeCourt will certainly reject Suu Kyi’s application. On the other hand the juntawill get its own nominees elected which may reduce the credibility of theelections per se, but is at least a beginning of electoral democracy in thecountry.

The bombs in the heart ofMyanmar’s formercapital Rangoon are indicators ofwhat is likely to happen in the days to come as the junta prepares forelections. The many groups fighting the Burmese state are active on theperiphery but have a presence in the main towns and cities as well. Rangoonor Yangon is the key area where they would be gettingmaximum publicity and therefore it is apparent that this will become a hub oftheir activities including violent bomb attacks. The military junta ispressuring some of the groups to join mainstream politics or convert to borderguards, a proposal which has been rejected by almost all groups so far.  

     Pressureseems to be building up on the Myanmargovernment for more inclusive elections by allowing the NLD to participate evenif the leader of the party Aung Suu Kyi is in jail on trumped up charges. Therehave been a number of calls from ASEAN countries as well who have someinfluence in the military government in Myanmar.On previous occasions the government has not been accommodative of suggestionsby ASEAN even when at times it is threatened with expulsion. Will there be anychange this time around remains to be seen, but it is unlikely that there wouldbe much leeway given to Aung Suu Kyi as the military junta has a long historyof antipathy towards this frail lady with enormous moral power.

MAY 2010