Apr 16, 2011

Myanmar's new president Thein Sein was sworn in a ceremony held in Naypyitaw, the country's capital and replaced Senior General Than Shwe, Myanmar junta chief since 1992, as the new head of state. Vice Presidents Tin Aung Myint Oo and Sai Mauk Kham were also sworn in. "The State Peace and Development Council will be immediately dissolved after the swearing-in ceremony," Than Shwe said on state-controlled television.  Major General Hla Min was named the new defence minister, Lieutenant General Ko Ko as home minister, and Major General Thein Htay became minister of border affairs. The new foreign minister was Wunna Maung Lwin, information minister was Kyaw Hsan and finance minister was Tin Naing Thein, all former military men.

The new army chief is General Min Aung Hlaing who had come into prominence having led operations against the insurgent group, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), in the Kokang area in 2009 and was Chief of Bureau of Special Operations – 2 (Shan and Karenni states).

The SSC headed by Senior General Than Shwe, Vice Senior General Maung Aye, new President Thein Sein,  Vice President Thiha Thura Tin Aung Myint Oo and former junta number three, Shwe Mann is likely to remain the veto authority over the Parliament and President.

In his inaugural address to Parliament, President Thein Sein called for a build-up and modernization of Burma’s armed forces. ‘If we neglect the defence of the country, we will face modern destruction’, he told lawmakers. ‘We must bear in mind that the neo-imperialists are eyeing our country, which is crucial both geographically and economically to their intervening and exploiting’. Thein Sein said, ‘If we don’t have a strong army, we will be bullied and mistreated by other countries. Our people had the fine tradition of living with our own kings in our own country for thousands of years. But at the end of Konboung dynasty, we easily fell under the clutches of the imperialists because we lacked a modern army. ‘We must make our current armed forces strong, capable, patriotic and modern by concerted efforts. Every citizen has the responsibility to perform this task’, he said.

The government is likely to continue its heavy spending on defence as media reports quoting details published in the Government Gazette revealed that almost one-quarter of the 7.6 trillion kyat ($8.45 billion) national budget will be allocated to defense. Education will get a 4.3 percent share, and health 1.3 percent.

Myanmar is also slated to receive the first of 20 RSK MiG-29s ordered under a roughly €400 million ($553 million) deal with Russia to more than double the country's MiG-29 fleet. The aircraft will be delivered in three configurations, comprising 10 MiG-29B and six MiG-29SE single-seat fighters and four MiG-29UB twin-seat operational trainers with analogue instruments and Phazotron N-019 radars.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) promptly called for a political dialogue with the new parliamentary government for the sake of national reconciliation. “We hope for a strong political dialogue’, NLD vice chairman Tin Oo said.  The call by Suu Kyi and the NLD for talks with the government is welcome for reconciliation is the way ahead in Myanmar. It is here that the role of countries as India comes into play where they can suggest to the new government or the junta to engage the NLD rather than shun it. Since India does have that influence there would be much hope ahead if New Delhi would play a positive role in Myanmar.

With formal transfer of state authority to the elected President Thein Sein  and Vice Presidents Tin Aung Myint Oo and Sai Mauk Kham as well as the new Army Chief General Min Aung Hlaing Myanmar is seeing a new phase in its modern history. The change of governance architecture however may not denote an overall shift in power as the real authority behind the parliament and the President will be the State Supreme Council (SSC) headed by Than Shwe. Both President Thein Sein and Army Chief Min Aung Hlaing are the protégé of Than Shwe with the former having been a Prime Minister even as a military general. However the gradual shift and step by step approach may be a good way ahead in Myanmar rather than revolutionary change. The call by National League for Democracy (NLD) for reconciliation is also welcome and should see the road for dialogue and release of political prisoners in the country in the days ahead.

With a new government now taking post and at least on paper a civilian one the debate over continued sanctions should also open up. The European Union and other Western states may consider reviewing their positions. While there are still over 2000 political prisoners and the military junta will continue to control the overall system of governance through a supreme council system which can overrule the parliament in national interest, the current sanctions are biting the common man on the street. With China, India and ASEAN countries continuing to do business with Myanmar sanctions remain an oxymoron. On the other hand entry of more players would lead to competition and greater transparency to the extent possible. Thus there could be a case for partial lifting of sanctions on the country though the same has been opposed by the National League for Democracy and Aung Suu Kyi.

The contrary stand taken by  Aung Suu Kyi may place many EU nations in a quandary as business lobbies want that sanctions be removed given that these are only creating space for non EU and US countries to trade with Myanmar. Against this backdrop the decision would no doubt be very hard to take. Never the less the Myanmar government would have to make more reconciliatory gestures and as Suu Kyi is insisting more number of political prisoners would have to be released to create the right atmosphere for lifting sanctions.

India continued to retain its links with Myanmar and announced USD 1 million assistance for earthquake relief after earthquake struck the northeastern part of Myanmar on March 25. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in his message to Senior General Than Shwe, Chairman, State Peace and Development Council of Myanmar, had assured assistance. "Following up on this assurance, the government has announced an assistance of USD 1 million for relief and rehabilitation in the affected areas," an official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs said. More than 70 people were killed when a strong earthquake of magnitude 6.8 struck Myanmar. [Based on MEA India Press Release].