Jun 6, 2010

The Dilemma ofEngagement By the International Community

After a disappointing visit by the US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, on May 9-10 which failed to break the ice though he met with both junta and opposition officials in Myanmar, the United States renewed sanctions, "because the actions and policies of the government of Burma continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States". However there are someother countries that seem to be open to engagement. The European Union and Australia are likely to review their policy as they have noticed that isolation of Myanmarhas not produced desirable results. The adverse fall from not engaging with North Korea is seen to have led to the torpedoincident which will add weight to these deliberations. Some sections of theinternational community fear that with North Korean and Myanmar linkages in the nuclear field, isolation of Myanmar would have a negative fall out. 

A report in the Irrawaddya magazine run by exiles on 10 May highlighted North Korean military assistanceto Myanmar toinclude hardware such as artillery and surface-to-surface missiles. Themagazine also claimed, "equipment necessary to build a nuclear capabilitywas reportedly among imported military supplies from NorthKorea". Two nuclear reactors arebelieved to be under construction in Myanmar,one at Naung Laing near the town of Pyin Oo Lwinin central Mandalay Division which is expected to be online in 2012 and adeliverable weapon by 2020, as per Desmond Ball, a defense analyst at AustraliaNational University.A report by UN Experts on proliferation by NorthKorea also envisaged the possibility ofexport of nuclear materials by North Koreato Myanmar andoutlined the detailed network of intermediaries, shell companies and overseascriminal networks used circumventing U.N. sanctions.

Sino Myanmar Relations

            Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will be visiting Myanmarin the first week of June and will focus on stability and national reconciliation ahead of the elections. Ethnic issues on the Sino-Myanmar border and ties with North Korea may figure in the talks. Chinese officials claim privately that their government is disappointed over banning dissidents, including pro-democracyl eader Aung San Suu Kyi and the 88 Generation Students group, from elections.

China’smain interest however is the linkages provided by Myanmarwith the Indian Ocean. Chinese Transport Minister LiSenghlin, signed an agreement for construction of a highway between Yunnan’sRuili and the deep seaport of Kyaukpyu, in western Burma, which will give Chinaroad access to the Indian Ocean as part of China’s, “Two-Ocean Strategy”, under which Beijing is attempting to expand its influence to the Indian Ocean toenhance its security. The Two Ocean Strategy includes establishment of astrategic network of road, rail and air transport and core pipelines of water,oil and gas between Yunnan Province and Kyaukpyu. The Kunming –Kyaukpyu pipeline an element of this strategy is likely to carry 80 percent of China’simported oil from North Africa and the MiddleEast, as well as Myanmar’snatural gas from the Bay of Bengal.

However Sino Myanmarrelations also have an instability component, thus Chinais perceived as having major interests in supporting permanence in Myanmar.Northern Myanmar areas are coming under increaseds crutiny for lack of government control and suppression of rebellions withexcessive use of force which has in the past led to some people migrating toYunan province of China.How Mr Wen Jia Bao is able to influence the Myanmargovernment on these issue remains to be seen.

The military junta on theother hand may outline proposal for elections thereby earning some reprievefrom the international community where it would hope to have Chinese supportwith pressure coming from the West States. The most intriguing discussion wouldbe if at all on North Korea Myanmar relations particularly after the sinking ofthe South Korean ship by Pyongyangrecently.

JUNE 2010