Mar 2, 2011

Remote Controlled Democracy

Myanmar’s newly elected parliament elected its leaders in the first session of Parliament. There were no surprises, as we have been indicating over the past many months former Prime Minister Thein Sein is the new president. As per 2008 constitution commander-in-chief of the armed forces appoints the ministers of defense, home affairs, and border affairs. Thus Snr General Than Shwe expectedly nominated Lt-Gen Ko Ko new defense minister who is the former chief of the Bureau of Special Operations-3 (BSO-3), Maj-Gen Hla Min, the current BSO-3 chief, as the minister of home affairs and Maj-Gen Thein Htay, the chief of military ordnance as minister for border affairs. Wanna Maung Lwin another former general is the new foreign minister.

Snr-Gen Than Shwe will lead the newly created council called the “State Supreme Council,” the most powerful body in the country. This has eight members Snr-Gen Than Shwe, Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye, Pyithu Hluttaw [Lower House] Speaker Thura Shwe Mann, President-elect Thein Sein, Vice President-elect Thiha Thura Tin Aung Myint Oo, former Lt. Gen Tin Aye and other two senior military generals. This is not a constitutionally approved body but is likely to hold the reins of actual power. The second high level body is the eleven-member National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) and will comprise of the president, two vice presidents, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, vice commander-in-chief, and the ministers of defense, home, foreign affairs and border affairs as per the 2008 Constitution.

In what is seen as the first so called official warning to Ms Suu Kyi after her release a junta led media organ has warned her and the National League for Democracy (NLD) of, “tragic ends,” if it continues to oppose an end to sanctions. The confidence of the junta in removal of sanctions is evident given that ASEAN states had endorsed removal of sanctions thereby providing an opening for the US and EU amongst others to do so. But it is obvious that with Suu Kyi’s statements the waters were some what muddied when she said that sanctions should be removed selectively. Thus it was the junta’s call now and the veiled threat has had a negative impact with US President indicating that transfer of governance to a civilian government and a parliament may not be enough to change track against the military regime.

Twelve ethnic armed groups in Burma have agreed to an alliance under the banner of the Union Nationalities Federal Council (Union of Burma) which will include groups such as the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), New Mon State Party (NMSP) and the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N) for the first time in their history. “Whether armed or ceasefire, we are all uniting as one ethnic group,” said the Council’s newly appointed joint secretary–1, Khun Okkar. Myanmar border regions are home to 135 different ethnic nationalities with 20 armed ethnic groups. These ethnic groups which are opposing the government have been forming alliances from time to time and the newest one is a follow up of the earlier ones such as the National Democratic Front (NDF) formed in 1976 and state-based Ethnic Nationalities Council (ENC) formed in 2001.

The current alliance is possibly created to meet the challenge from an offensive by the government forces due to be launched shortly. Nomination of General Mutu Saypo of Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), armed wing of the Karen National Union (KNU), to head the Central Executive Committee appears to be an indication of the way things are likely to shape up and focus of the alliance per se. The geographic distribution of these groups prevents posing a greater military challenge to the military which is adept at dividing and beating them or at least containing them one by one.

In line with military domination, nearly one-quarter of Myanmar's new national budget will go to defence. The budget earmarked 20 billion kyat (about $22 million at free market rates of exchange) for the office of the State Peace and Development Council and 1.8 trillion kyat ($2 billion), or 23.6 per cent of the budget this year for defence. The health sector, meanwhile, will get 99.5 billion kyat ($110 million), or 1.3 per cent.

A North Korean Myanmar military nexus was evident with reports by Asia Times Online that there was a missile production facility at Minhla on the west bank of the Ayeyarwady River, south of Minbu in Magway Division. This was reportedly producing Scud-type missiles. So far, however, there are no reports to suggest a clandestine nuclear program. Some reports indicate this being carried out at Myaing to the north of Pakokku, which is also in Magway Division but far from the Minhla facilities. The reports of arms build up by Myanmar are certainly alarming particularly for its southern neighbor Thailand. Never the less Myanmar has consistently denied any truck with North Korea which has been accused in the past of clandestine activities in the country but it seems that those days are now over. This activity will have to be observed closely in the days ahead.