Jun 6, 2010

Military Continued Domination ofPolitical Space

The National League forDemocracy (NLD) ceased to exist as a political movement as the Party did notregister on May 6, last day for registration for existing political parties.The Party claimed that the process was unfair and unjust but it will continueto have offices in the country with headquarters in Shwegondaing in Yangon.The Party is now working out a strategy to avoid being politicallymarginalized. There is possibility of some break away elements registering as aparty in the country as election law permits registration by new parties evenafter 6 May.

            The military junta in Myanmaris thus set to follow its plans for elections. The main threat in the electionsthe NLD has been shrewdly prevented from participation by being disqualifiedwhile the military brass has resigned and formed a political party oninstructions of the highest authority, Senior General Than Shwe. This willfacilitate military to gain dual control in parliament with Mr (former LtGeneral) Thein Sein, who resigned as Prime Minister recently being reelectedand therefore blunting the edge of criticism faced from time to time. Now whataction the NLD takes remains to be seen, most likely some elements will float anew party and attempt to make inroads in the parliament.

            The key dilemma in Myanmarfor the international community is whether to press for greater inclusivenessin the election process or allow the military junta to change at the currentrate with marginalization of NLD and Aung Suu Kyi in the process. While Indiaseems to have adopted the latter position to accept the change at the currentrate, there is some concern that this will allow the military junta to continueto shape policies in the country even after the elections, however the Indianposition may be more realistic and based on a pragmatic assessment of pastlegacy and current problems on the ground.

JUNE 2010

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