Feb 1, 2011

A New Phase for Myanmar

Myanmar’s Parliament assembled for the first time in two decades to welcome the newly elected legislators. The pro-junta Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won 77 percent of seats in the three chambers of parliament -- upper, lower and regional. 25 percent of the three chambers are military representatives. The military has appointed 388 legislators to fill the 'military quota' of three chambers of parliament, 110 military officers for the lower house, 56 for the upper house, and 222 for regional and state parliaments. The upper and lower houses, along with 166 military appointees are meeting now with regional and state parliaments to meet separately in their own capitals. The first task is to elect the main leaders; the president is expected to be selected before mid-February. The president will be responsible for choosing the next cabinet, which is expected to be primarily selected from the members of the USDP.

The military third-in-command, Thura Shwe Mann, was elected lower house speaker the more powerful of the three bodies. The candidates for the President are likely to  be current Prime Minister, Thein Sein, an ethnic Karen, Saw Thein Aung,  military commander, Tin Aung Myint Oo, Aye Maung, leader of the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party, or Sai Mo Kham. Irrespective of the nomination of the President, these will be the important functionaries in the newly evolved democratic system in the country in the days ahead but the controlling influence will remain Senior General Than Shwe.

Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi appealed to global business leaders at the World Economic Forum (WEF) to, "use their particular opportunities and skills as far as possible to promote national reconciliation, genuine democratisation, human development and economic growth in Burma, that our people may in turn be able make their own contribution towards a safer, happier world." Ms Suu Kyi’s call to leaders in Davos at the World Economic Forum would not be without the approval of the military junta since despite having given her freedom and even recently internet connectivity; she is likely to be under supervision and military surveillance. The appeal by Suu Kyi’s party National League for Democracy (NLD) which lost its legal status after boycotting the polls has been rejected by the Supreme Court.

The unique structure of functioning that is likely to emerge in Myanmar is intriguing many observers while the military is not expected to give up supremacy in governance there would be a new formal relationship with the equation between the President, the parliament and the head of the armed forces Snr General Than Shwe being the determining factor. Therefore who assumes supreme authority and how the military will conform to the new system remains to be seen. What ever it be in the immediate future, it is Snr General Than Shwe who would be calling the shots.