May 15, 2011

A New Government in Old Clothes?

Small changes were evident in Myanmar as the new president appointed a nine-member advisory board that includes an economist who is close to opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Mr U Myint. President U Thein Sein also used his inaugural address to outline government’s reform agenda or 10-point “internal affairs” policy program, to improve the “socio-economic status of the people”, industrialise the economy, fight corruption, strengthen the judiciary and enact new health, education and media laws. Amending existing laws contrary to the constitution, “occasionally” increasing salaries and pensions, reviewing existing agriculture and employment laws and promulgating and amending laws on environmental conservation are the other priorities.

The President also addressed a meeting of the Central Committee for Progress of Border Areas and National Races calling for national unity in a country, where over 100 national races have been living together. He also highlighted the Three Main National Causes: non-disintegration of the Union, non-disintegration of national solidarity and perpetuation of sovereignty. The Myanmar Army has on the other hand launched, “Four Cuts” policy in the border areas. The policy was developed in the 1970s to cut off the four main links (food, funds, intelligence, and recruits) between insurgents, their families and local villagers. This campaign has increased in severity over time. An additional “cut,” of severing communication between allied ethnic groups has also been adopted. As most of the groups on the periphery are based on the Sino-Burmese border and the Thai-Burmese border, how far the four cuts strategy works remains to be seen.

With a large number of ethnic communities and varying causes for separation the importance of Central Committee for Progress of Border Areas and National Races in Myanmar cannot be undermined. President U Thein Sein who has chaired the meeting for the first time however continued to address the issue from the perspective of the military junta where he was the prime minister seeking to highlight three key issues ensuring the integration of the Union, national solidarity and sovereignty. This has also led the military government to sustain political suppression in the name of solidarity and has led to the prominence to the NLD and Aung Suu Kyi. Pursuance of the Four Cuts policy also denotes that there is no major change in the overall agenda in the border areas.

On the external front as well there have been some efforts to transform. President Thein Sien has submitted a letter to the ASEAN Secretariat expressing Myanmar’s readiness to take up the grouping’s chairmanship in 2014. Newly appointed Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin briefed the ASEAN foreign ministers in Bangkok and asked grouping’s support to allow Burma to resume the much needed chair. This is likely to be opposed by the United States. Washington however appointed a special envoy Derek Mitchell who was also welcomed by Aung Suu Kyi.

The EU has decided to renew sanctions for another year but eased travel and financial transactions of key civilian ministers including the foreign minister. Lifting sanctions over the Foreign Minister is important as there can now be official dialogue at a high level between EU and Myanmar. This may be the first step towards opening doors by both sides though this may be a slow and step by step process. For the large business community in the EU this may be an opportunity for greater investment and trade though this may happen again in a slow manner but with the resource rich country, this would be a good boon for some of the oil and  mineral majors.

            With Myanmar government now actively pursuing a new agenda at least in public of reconciliation and greater engagement the first initiative has been with immediate neighbours and the grouping which has in many ways supported the military junta so far, ASEAN. Thus moves by Myanmar to assume Chair of this grouping. How far and how much this will succeed remains to be seen, for it is more than likely that ASEAN states wanting greater engagement with Myanmar may face opposition from the West particularly US and the EU. All this makes the possibility of Myanmar assuming the chair some what remote unless the government opens up more and releases political prisoners as well as possibly talks with Aung Suu Kyi.

Aung Suu Kyi is also amenable to reconciliation as the lady was not fully inclined to reach out to the West on sanctions but has welcomed the new US envoy. Suu Kyi’s compromising approach may provide better chance of engaging the newly formed elected government though the elections were not fully representative.

With the US and EU willing to engage the new Myanmar government the country should now be opened for diplomatic and economic exchange in the days ahead as there are many drawbacks in following a closed door policy.  The advantage gained by Chinese, Indian and Thai government s and other ASEAN countries has possibly convinced the US that engagement was a better approach particularly so as a new government is now in office. More over however flawed the elections and despite the presence of large number of uniformed in the parliament it may be better to work with an evolutionary rather than a revolutionary model as the US would have possibly realized after the West Asian crisis. So hopefully engagement with Myanmar may now open up and Aung Suu Kyi should also play a positive role in the same.