Aug 22, 2011

Kashmir: Security Challenges of Low Level Insurgency

            The death of a 26-year-old youth in police custody in Sopore on 31 July and allegations of rape by a soldier in South Kashmir during the month highlighted the key challenge for security forces of managing low level insurgency. Nazim Rashid alias Anjum was picked up by the special operations group of the state police along with two others for questioning in the killing of a local businessman Mohammad Ashraf Dar in Sopore town on July 28. His body was handed over to his relatives with death attributable to torture during interrogation though the complete facts are yet to be established.  On 22 July a Special Investigation Team (SIT) of police was formed to probe the alleged abduction and rape of 25-year-old Rukaya Bano inside Cheranbal forests, in south Kashmir’s Kulgam district.

            These incidents which received high visibility given the nature of suspected crime seem an aberration in the overall drop in violence in insurgency in India, but they underline the inability of a security system to adjust to the changes on the ground. The drop in violence is evident with a survey of the data. There were 168 violent incidents in Jammu and Kashmir in the first six months of the year as compared to 254 during the same period last year. In the North East 34 civilians were killed in 286 incidents this year a drop from 42 civilians killed in 365 incidents of violence in 2010. In Left Wing insurgency affected areas violence has decreased with 203 incidents as compared to 338 last year.

            In the Kashmir Valley itself incidents of violence fell below 100 in the first half of the year to 97 compared with last year’s figure of 196. 79 people were killed in violence between January 1 and June 30 -- 42 militants, 12 Indian security personnel and 25 civilians as per an AFP Report. This has been lowest level of violence from the peak in 1996 which saw an average of 13 fatalities each day, in 2001 there were approximately 10 killed each day. The total insurgency related deaths were 375 in 2010, the same as 2009. In addition in 2010 there were 117 fatalities during public protests.  Hopefully this year the level will drop down further and will remain below 200 fatalities.

            Despite the drop there have been steady stream terrorist incidents. On 6 July suspected Laskhar-e-Tayyeba (LeT) militants fired a grenade on a police station in Sopore in north Kashmir which injured nine policemen. This was the fifth militant attack on the police station this year. On the same day a militant was killed in an infiltration bid on the Line of Control in Keran sector. On 9 July 2 Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorists including a Pakistan national were killed during an encounter at Hanjan village of Pulwama district of south Kashmir in a joint operation with police launched by 44 Rashtriya Rifles.  On 16 July, 5 LeT terrorists, including three self-styled divisional commanders were killed in a day long encounter in the border district of Kupwara. In this fierce encounter in the Lolab Valley one soldier was also reportedly killed and an officer injured. On 27 July an encounter in Hyhama area of Kupwara near LoC led to the death of two soldiers attempting to disrupt infiltration. On 30 July an unidentified militant was killed in Handwara tehsil of the Kupwara district in Rationpora village.

            The dilemma before the security forces is therefore evident. The security grid cannot be entirely dismantled given the nature of incidents spread across the Valley and particularly in some key areas. Sopore in Central Kashmir for instance is a hot spot and has been active support base for terrorist groups with a large number of separatist leaders also owing their allegiance to the apple hub of the State. One factor which explains the violence is radicalization of Islam. "The Valley is witnessing radicalization of Islam and Sopore is manifestation of that. People here have a different bent of mind as it is Jamaat (e-Islami) bastion. We fear many stone-throwers are involved in terror activities now," said Khan, the police head in Sopore. LeT's three big names Abdullah Unni, suspected to be a Pakistan-occupied Kashmir resident, Abu Huzaifa and Muzaffar Naiko, both locals, are active in Sopore.  "We killed LeT's 10 militants in the previous three months. It is trying to assert itself again by resorting to such attacks. Only four out of 15 LeT militants are left in the area," said Khan.

            On the other hand deployment of troops can lead to allegations of heavy handedness in incidents some of which are specifically engineered by insurgent groups. Avoiding such allegations of rape or custodial death of youth is likely to remain a major challenge for the security forces. Incidents as these provide fodder to separatists who are losing steam and want to fan the fire of agitation on the streets even as government attempts to defuse the tension by taking firm action against the erring policemen and other security personnel. The State government as well as security forces has a major challenge of containing the fall out of such incidents which can lead to a chain of violent political street side protests that were witnessed in the past three years in the Valley.

            A repetition of such incidents each year is also the result of lack of effective Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) to contain violence. No lessons have apparently been learnt and also anticipation of what is likely to be the strategy of the separatists to sustain their movement is lacking. Basic drills for interrogation and investigation also seem to rely on ancient systems of torture resulting in custodial deaths. There is much that can be done and presence of security forces in areas which are devoid of violence would have to be reduced to surveillance and patrolling rather than picqueting.

            On the Line of Control [LOC], there has been limited ingress or egress during the year. The effectiveness of the counter infiltration grid on the LOC is evident and demonstration of the same was given recently by units deployed there. This is also an indication of Pakistan not attempting to push militants across the border to the extent it had done in previous years and is a move in the positive direction. The Indian side is also responding more cautiously and has not accused the other side of any major violations of the LOC or cross border firing. But past history shows that intent on the other side may change and thus caution has to be exercised.

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