Apr 30, 2008

KASHMIR : TALKS WITH MILITANTS OPTION FOR PEACE

Key Trends

• Kashmir - Empirical assessment of violent incidents and infiltration reveals an increase in trend of intensity and number of incidents.
• Kashmir`s Political Dynamics now moving towards possible alignments during forthcoming elections in the state.
• Review of Demilitarisation denotes relocation and deinduction of additional forces without changing the basic counter terrorism grid.
• Peace dividend denoted by holding of Sufiyana festivals in Srinagar at night and Gurez sector on the line of control for tourism.

Kashmir - An Empirical Assessment

A few indicators of possible trends in violence in Kashmir are evident through a survey of the data in Kashmir Valley under various parameters as tabulated below.

Incidents of Violence Related to Terrorism

These and other figures provided by Praveen Swami, Deputy Editor of the Frontline indicate that level of violence has certainly dropped by 39 %. This is also evident by the drop in kill ratio from 4.4 to 2.4 of terrorists versus SF killed by 46 %. This ratio also indicates that terrorists are taking a higher toll in the security forces by over 50 % in the past two years and approximately 20 % over the last one year. Thus Swami has concluded as per views of experts that terrorists are better trained and equipped than previous years. In Kashmir, daily killings have also dropped to two from ten in 2001 and a peak of 13 in 1996, according to official police records.

The ratio of influx in 2007 up to May has been 173 as estimated by the CID of Jammu and Kashmir police while only 95 have exited thereby indicating a net addition of 78 terrorists so far. If the premise of infiltration figures being underestimated by authorities is taken into account at a modest rate of 50 %, this would imply a net addition of 251 terrorists to the strength in the first five months of the year alone. As infiltration will peak from July to September, more additions can be expected thereby highlighting the need to maintain vigil.

Conclusive Analysis

A drop in number of terrorists implies that security forces have to undertake more risks to get kills, exposing the more daring amongst them to terrorist fire. More over surviving terrorists in the Valley are likely to be more enterprising and experienced than those who have perished thereby indicating that he would pose a greater challenge to the security forces. On the other hand security forces are now getting into the 20 percent zone where achieving efficiencies will be much more difficult. So it still remains a long haul ahead. The proposal for demilitarization needs to be viewed from this perspective as it will only create space for the more effective and efficient amongst the killers.

The conflicting signals coming out of Kashmir when placed in perspective will indicate that the insurgency appears to be mainly focused in the border districts of Kupwara, Baramulla and other interior areas in Pulwama, Shopiyan and Anantnag. The main tourist areas of Srinagar, Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Sonemarg appear to be free from incidents, but this is likely to be due to some agreement between militant organizations and tourist operators. The security forces are in the 80 percent plus zone of peak efficiency wherein accretions in drop of violence will come about only with extensive expenditure of resources. A more viable solution would be to seek a cease fire with more amenable militant groups which can bring down the violence and also lead to some solution in the forthcoming months. There is a window of at least a year of instability in Pakistan which needs to be exploited for talking with Hizbul Mujaheedin the indigenous Kashmir terrorist group. This will finally break the back of militancy in the valley.

Political Security

Kashmir `s Political Dynamics

Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad`s tête-à-tête with his seemingly estranged ruling partner Mufti Muhammad Sayeed during the legislative party meeting of coalition allies on 18 July evening was conspicuous observed media reports. The legislators of the ruling allies of Azad-led five-party coalition government had gathered in SKICC ahead of the Legislative Assembly session. Key partners in the ruling coalition, Mufti and Azad, are reported to have met after over five months. "Both Azad and Mufti held an exclusive meeting on the sidelines. The changing relationship between the National Conference and the Congress would have prompted the PDP to make a favourable shift towards its coalition partner feel some analysts. However some sections believe that Mufti has found the time opportune enough to give out the feeling that his disagreement with Azad (troop-cut in J&K) was primarily based on the "principles" and not personal allergy.  Analysts believe that Mufti did not want to be seen as a `trouble maker` in the discord-ridden coalition. (Media Report).

Analysis of Political Situation

Like all political moves, the present one is also set to be seen in the backdrop of forthcoming elections in Kashmir which may see a major realignment of forces. It is important for the PDP to retain its hold in Kashmir for which it would need the support of the Congress led government to acquiesce to some of its policies. On the other hand the National Conference is in a resurgent mood with Farooq Abdullah planning to contest the next elections. The party has a strong support base in Kashmir as well as other parts of Jammu and Ladakh region. The Congress has its traditional base which has been strengthened in the past with some deft administrative measures by the Chief Minister. Thus there is likely to be a three cornered post election scenario with the Congress, PDP and the National Conference vying for numbers. A political alignment at this stage is not predictable as all three parties are now attempting to maintain effective relationship with each other to ensure that they are able to form the government in concert. As of now there is no immediate threat to the Azad government and the crisis which was looming a few months back is blown over with greater reconciliation between the Congress and the PDP.

Review of Demilitarisation

A number high level reviews of the situation in Kashmir took place, the first was initiated by the Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil who indicated that there was an overall improvement in the situation which had to be consolidated for further gains. The Defence Secretary Mr Shekhar Dutt as part of the committee to recommend demilitarization also reviewed the situation on 5 July with the army and civil authorities including Lt Gen SK Sekhon, 15 Corps Commander, high officials of CRPF and BSF, state police Chief and senior officials from the Intelligence Bureau as well as the State Chief Secretary C Phunsung. The aim was to take a security view from ground zero in Srinagar and to consult security network in Jammu and Kashmir before submitting its recommendations to the Defence Minister AK Antony. The meeting also examined the PDP demand to relocate forces from some orchards, hospital and government schools.

The Panel is reported to have submitted its recommendation which indicates no withdrawal of troops from the counter terrorism grid in the Valley however a pull out of 20,000 troops from other areas may be carried out as per news reports which require confirmation. These are essentially troops which have been deployed in the state during Operation Parakram. Central forces are also being redeployed from private properties, school buildings, hospitals, orchards and agricultural fields. The increase in infiltration from across the Line of Control had prevented any large scale withdrawal of troops. (Media Reports). Comments.The Panel will be examining the issue in detail prior to giving a recommendation to the Prime Minister. The issue of demilitarization is as much political as military. Hence in all likelihood, there is a reason to believe that this will also be linked with the forthcoming state elections in 2008. Thus there will be attempts to benefit the ruling Congress party in Kashmir. However the dilemma faced by it is how to keep the PDP which has given the main demand for troop withdrawal and benefited from alleged support of militants in South Kashmir happy.

Survey of Militant Incidents

A survey of major militant incidents in the Valley during the month may also provide a varied perspective. Thus a number of incidents of militant violence were reported. On 09 July terrorists fired two grenades at a house where National Conference President Omar Abdullah was present in Kupwara district but these exploded 200-300 metres away injuring four security personnel. There were two attacks on Amarnath pilgrims, a rare happening even during the peak of militancy in the Valley. A suicide attack was launched on 26 July on 42 nd Battalion CRPF camp at Zakura in which two suicide attackers were killed and four CRPF paramilitary men injured. This suicide attack occurred after a long period in the Valley. Four tourists from Gujarat and a local girl were killed and 18 persons injured in an explosion inside a tourist bus near the Mughal Gardens at Shalimar on 29 July. A police official told that explosion took place inside the tourist bus (No. GJ-23P-9977). A similar explosion took place in another bus carrying tourists from Bihar. After investigations, the cause of explosions was identified as a grenade with large number of shrapnel.

Militants were also shown capable of using women as honey traps to lure innocent soldiers and take advantage to malign armed forces. There is a necessity for the Army to ensure that there is minimal engagement of troops with the civil populace at this critical juncture to ensure that the flames of rights agitations are reduced. Strict instructions to avoid any contact with the civil population without due authority and in groups need to be given to avoid such incidents in the future. The focus should also be on human rights violations in Kashmir. This is causing numerous protests in the Valley and is leading to a number of civil agitations which is fraying tempers. However in the days ahead with additional induction of terrorists from across the border during the past two months, the number of militant attacks also likely to increase.

Infiltration Incidents

The army lost a colonel on 31 July in a counter infiltration operation in the Uri Sector of Kashmir. Eight infiltrators were also killed in this operation. This was one of the many attempts at infiltration foiled by the army. Four heavily-armed militants were gunned down by security forces on 5 July when they were attempting to infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir's Kupwara district. Brig N P S Hira of the Uri Brigade told reporters that foreign militants were aiming to increase the level of violence in the state. Besides 700 militants of the Hizbul Mujahideen were also waiting in wings to return to Kashmir, he said. Hira said 52 militant camps are thriving in PoK and Pakistan. Seven militants were killed in June while trying to sneak into the state in Uri sector alone, he added.(Media reports). Militant groups have also been using infiltration in conjunction with surrenders to seek benefits offered to surrenderees and penetrating the security set up as fifth columnists as indicated by some reports by the Intelligence Bureau.

Peace Dividend

For the first time the J&K government is organising a tourism festival in the Gurez valley, 130 kilometres north of Srinagar. Rock climbing, river rafting, food courts and a Dardi musical evening are among the attractions planned at Gurez. The makeover is an ambitious initiative because the Gurez sector is one of the infiltration routes favoured by the militants. There have been encounters in the area in which scores of militants have been killed. In fact, because the area is highly sensitive, the authorities have given special passes to the local residents to keep strangers at bay. (DNA India Report). On the positive side nightlife has started to return in Kashmir with sufiyana and traditional Kashmiri music enthralling both locals and tourists. The nightlife has revived after nearly two decades of ghost nights. A lot of events have been taking place at the newly created Zabarwan park on the banks of Dal lake. (Media Reports)

(SAST AUGUST 2007)

Related Tags

• Jammu and Kashmir
• Peace options
• Militancy
• Terrorism