Nov 14, 2010

Xi Jinping: President in Waiting?

            An important leadership change which may also impact Sino Indian relations is nomination of Mr Xi Jinping as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission. This has led to speculation some say confirmation of his being the anointed successor of President Hu Jintao. The 57 year old son of a veteran party leader and close associate of Deng Xiaoping, Mr Xi Jinping’s rise in the Party hierarchy has borne the scars of the Cultural Revolution as well as witnessed China’s rising economic strength at close quarters. He is one of the anointed, “Princelings” of the Party, sons of former party leaders and is seen to enjoy a favoured position because of this heredity. Xi Jinping also has had limited exposure to the PLA and as per Xinhua has worked in the CMC for three years from April 1979 till 1982 as an officer in ‘active’ service. As per a bio summary by Mr Jayadeva Ranade of CAPS, Xi Jinping’s second wife, Peng Liyuan, is an accomplished Chinese folk singer and holds the rank of Major General in the PLA.

With strong roots to the Party as well as an exposure to the PLA, Mr Ranade assesses that Xi Jinping is unlikely to rock the boat though his father has been a liberal and a dissenter of sorts. “Xi Jinping is very unlikely to do anything that could weaken the Party or its monopoly on power, though he might tinker on the edges of limited and gradual political reform,” says Ranade. On Tibet and Xinjiang as Xi Jinping was present at the national work conference in the beginning of this  month which had approved the hard line approach in the autonomous regions, Ranade feels that Xi Jinping is not likely to provide much hope of a softer line than that adopted by Hu Jintao.

            While much is known of Mr Xi Jinping through the plethora of material on his attitudes and approaches gleaned from events and statements in the past, as a product of the Party though much less of the PLA, how far will he make any sweeping changes as was carried out by his father’s mentor, Deng Xiaoping remains to be seen? As of now he is not seen to have the public confidence nor the political capital to carry out a transformation to take China in a new direction. Given the economic upsurge there may also be no trigger for such a change as well.

What China watchers in New Delhi are wondering is will he take a more benign approach towards India then President Hu Jintao is believed to have been so far? Will he follow the PLA hard-line approach or the Shanghai Clubs economic and trade oriented soft line? Will he continue on the path of modernisation of PLA? Will he bring about a more open policy towards Autonomous Provinces of Xingjian and Tibet than those followed by Mr Hu Jintao? How will he manage the rising aspirations of China’s growing civil society which is likely to clash with Party’s model of centralised controlled? We will continue to watch these critical issues in the two years that he has before possibly taking over as President Hu Jintao’s successor.

NOV 2010