Aug 22, 2011

Mumbai’s Unending Terror Travails

            The tragedy of terror continues to haunt India as three blasts within twelve minutes during Mumbai’s rush hour on 13 July left 26 people dead and over 140 injured. Home Minister P Chidambaram, who reached Mumbai, described the blast as “a coordinated terror attack”. The three blasts were reported by the Mumbai Police at 06:54 PM at Opera House, 06:55 PM at Zaveri Bazar and 07:06 PM at Kabutar Khana, Dadar. All these localities are in the heart of the metro with evening rush hour as people were returning home from work. The incident is being investigated by ATS, Mumbai.  NIA associated itself with the investigation at the start and continues to be associated with the ATS, Mumbai.  Sketches of suspects have been shared with the police authorities of different States and efforts are being made to apprehend the culprits.

            The blasts in Mumbai have come after some time, the last major incident being at Pune in February last year though there were some minor incidents in Bangalore, Varanasi and even in the capital Delhi during the intervening period. While the overall needle of suspicion appears to go towards the Indian Mujahideen (IM), it has not claimed the blasts as normally IM sends emails immediately following such actions. This is the fifth major strike against India's commercial hub, the earlier ones coming in 1993 (257 killed), 2003 (52 killed), 2006 (188 killed) and 2008 (166 killed).

            The other suspects are Mumbai’s criminal gangs who have been known to indulge in such activities in the past and have the capacity to do so for the spots that have been selected may have some criminal interests. The linkage with the Martyrs day on 13 July in Kashmir may also point to groups from J and K but they may not have the network to carry out the attacks. What is most evident is that there is a massive failure of intelligence as well as operational somnolence due to complacency of the police in Mumbai such an incident has again occurred in what is becoming the terror capital of the country.

            Local security measures and awareness is also a concern as despite Zaveri Bazaar being a legacy targeted for the third time, a campaign to increase public awareness is lacking. People were trampling all over the place even after evacuation of casualties, thereby destroying evidence. The Maharashtra government, the State Home Minister, and Mumbai police have just not learnt any lessons and upgraded capability despite the second major attack in the state in the past two years. Their performance is shoddy, this may be the case for other states except may be Tamil Nadu and Delhi. Depoliticisation and anti corruption measures in police in Maharashtra and efficiency enhancement should be a national priority now. Finally it is only the command performance of Home Minister that saved the day for the government else it would have faced the same flak that it did after Mumbai 26/11

            The IM which is the main suspect behind the blasts is seen by many as Indian clone of the Pakistan group, Lashkar e Taiyyaba which has been activated to emphasise deniability by Pakistan which came in the lime light for the 26/11 attack so blatantly carried out by infiltrating terrorists by sea. The network of the IM is based on the mother organization Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) which has a presence in many parts of the country. Thus the reach of IM is widespread and it is obvious that intelligence agencies have failed to map the same leading to proliferation of the group. Now it is time that there is a renewed focus on the IM given that there are concerns that the network spread in large parts of the country may lead to a series of such blasts in the future as well.

            Political consensus is the primary requirement for launching a viable counter terrorism campaign. This comes from political will and leadership to bring together all parties on a common platform. The shenanigans immediately after 13/7 denoted that there is hostility rather than consensus.  What is dangerous is that parties are taking very contradictory positions in naming and shaming terror in their attempts to play populist politics thereby sheltering the miniscule minority which supports extremism.  Isolating this minority regardless of community and religious affiliation is important but political managers are only adding to the confusion by attempting to color the larger community or organizations that represent these. This is extremely hazardous and is sending the wrong signals. The statements made by some Congress leaders and the repartee by the opposition is causing friction which is best avoidable but there is no hope of that happening and the terrorist groups may be having the last laugh.

            Administrative directives to control the instruments of terrorism are also necessary. Despite some measures suggested in the past for control of use of ammonium nitrate which was reportedly used in Mumbai 13/7, it is only now that the orders have been promulgated. "The central government hereby declares that ammonium nitrate or any combination containing more than 45% of ammonium nitrate by weight including emulsions, suspensions, melts or gels shall be deemed to be an explosive," the commerce and industry ministry said in a notification issued after Mumbai.

            The regional and transnational of terrorism impacting India is facilitated by use of modern means of communications including Skype to avoid detection and surveillance by terrorists. The police and intelligence agencies would have to build up the capacity for technical intelligence even as the human intelligence remains weak. There is therefore a need for understanding the new form that terrorism is taking in the country with transnational terrorists attempting to use Indian indigenous disaffected youth to wreck violence. This ensures that there is deniability thus no finger is pointed at Pakistan while the rebels win support from abroad and by depicting this as a successful enterprise attract more youth to their cause, that not a single case has been cracked is also flagged by the terror groups to wean away the youth towards violence. A significant build up of capacity is therefore necessary if this cycle is to be broken.