Feb 1, 2011

Paresh Barua – Strategic Communication to Upset Talks with ULFA

Paresh Barua the renegade commander in chief of the ULFA released a video supporting sovereignty for Assam with cadres in a jungle clearing raising arms and dancing to Bihu Songs. The timing of the video was opportune for pro talks ULFA Central Committee of the rebel organization, including ULFA Chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa, Vice-Chairman Pradip Gogoi, Deputy Commander in Chief Raju Barua, Central Publicity Secretary Mithinga Daimari, Cultural Secretary Pranati Deka and Adviser Bhimkanta Buragohain, Finance secretary Sasha Choudhary and Foreign Secretary Chitrabon Hazarika have entered into formal negotiations with the Central and the State government. ULFA General Secretary Anup Chetia is also expected to be extradited from Bangladesh thereby strengthening the leaders who are seeking a peaceful resolution to the long standing insurgency in the State.

Barua’s video send by email to newspapers in Guwahati however created a storm and a dilemma in the guerrilla leaders as well as the general populace of Assam. The video clipping featured over 100 Ulfa cadres shouting slogans like: "We don't support the so-called talks"; "We want independence"; "Victory to our struggle"; "Victory to Asom". While the number of cadres in the video [Seen by the Editor SAST on the internet] were few and the clip was quite short, the impact that it had was of uncertainty of peace in Assam despite talks if the Barua faction remained out of the loop. “The peace process, which has been activated at the request of the Assam Government has suffered a major setback,” said Anil Bhat, a retired defence public relations officer with extensive experience in the North East.

This also led to demand by people in Assam for Paresh Baruah to join the peace talks for final settlement with the ULFA as the video created the impression that without him the process would remain incomoplete.  “It (the videos) has created confusion in the state and the people are thinking what will happen. On the one hand, Arabinda Rajkhowa is carrying on about peace talks, and on the other, Paresh Baruah is displaying his strength,” added Chetia, a local. Another facet of contention is the demand by those families affected by terror of the ULFA demanding justice under the aegis of “Forum for Terrorist Victims Families, Assam”.

State agencies claimed that the small strength in the video demonstrated weakness of the group supporting Paresh Barua.  Arunodoi Dohutia, the commander of the central publicity wing of the Ulfa hardliners clarified to the media, "Through the latest move, we are not trying to display our military strength; we are much stronger than this and New Delhi knows that very well." Dohutia's statement also said: "The Government of India and the so-called peace brokers should understand our slogans. These are the slogans of the indigenous people of Asom." Such statements from renegade leaders are of course expected to boost up the morale particularly when cadre strength is dwindling and a major portion of the group has opted for peaceful negotiations.

Intelligence agencies also highlighted that  Paresh Barua is now the sole arms dealer in the northeast and is getting supplies through China’s state-owned China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO) for free for supply to the North East groups and has also made contact with the Naxalite. Baruah has filled up the space created by the arrest of NSCN(I-M)’s Anthony Shimray. Shimray was supplying arms through a network that covered NORINCO as well as Myanmar and Thailand, while Baruah is reportedly able to tap Bangladeshi sources as well.

Strategic communication is a powerful tool that guerrillas use with effect. Proliferation of the internet, social media and easy availability of video cameras can be employed by even a small group of terrorists to upset well laid out plans. Paresh Barua is well aware of this and has used the video at a time when the Centre and State governments are holding talks with the main faction of the ULFA.

In a counter militancy situation as in Assam where negotiations have started with one faction of militants and another faction is out in the open not wanting to come to the talks table, the latter is known to use strategic communication to neutralize positive effect of dialogue. The government would have to pursue talks with the Central Committee to marginalize Barua or offer lucrative conditions to him to come over ground. This will remain a protracted process and would take some years to fructify. Low level terrorist activity will continue in the interim period. This was evident with two terrorists shot dead on 23 January in the Budlabeta area under  Doomdooma police station in a joint operation. 

Meanwhile talks also seem to be the way adopted by the other main rebel group in Assam representing the Bodos, the NDFB. A delegation consisting of a number of organisations of the Bodos has met Home Minister on January 17, 2011 and requested that talks should be held with the NDFB.  They were assured that talks will be held once the Government is satisfied that violence, abduction and extortion have come to an end. 

The militant groups in Assam are possibly sensing an opportunity in the State with  elections due in the months ahead not for participation but for gaining influence by supporting local favourites. This is also being exploited by the political parties in the fray. Thus all militant groups in the state who have come over board and joined the peace process have become active. The ULFA in particular as the largest group and one which has good influence over a major section of the community in the State is being wooed by all sides in the run up to the hustings.

What happens after the elections however remains to be seen and hopefully the Congress party in power in the Centre and the State in Assam is not using the ULFA only for the purpose of the elections and abandon it the moment the same are over. For now that a major portion of the group has come over ground there is a need to ensure engagement with the ULFA and NDFB. The Assam government would therefore have to play out its strategy with deliberation as the guerrillas are keeping their option open either way, inside the political space and outside it as well. Hopefully enough political and intelligence sagacity will prevail.