Aug 22, 2011

Assam: Two Plus Many Terror Profile

            The two plus many terrorist profile of Assam was evident with explosion in a train on 10 July which led to 50 passengers being injured. The explosion took place when the Guwahati-Puri Express was nearing Ghograpara in western Assam, about 70 km from Guwahati at around 8.30 pm. "Four coaches of the train derailed trapping scores of passengers, leaving many of them seriously injured. We suspect it was an explosion," said a senior police official. The train was bound for Puri in Orissa.  While the needle of suspicion was on the anti talks faction of the two main groups United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), a little known outfit, Adivasi People’s Army (APA) claimed the blast.

            While a major casualty was averted, the activity of the APA brought to the fore the threat of smaller terrorist groups in Assam. There are at least 10 splinter militant groups active across the state to include Karbi Peoples Liberation Tiger (KPLT) formed in Karbi Anglong district in January 2011 by an anti-peace talks breakaway group of 25 members of the Karbi Longri NC Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF), after it had laid down arms in February 2010, Santhal Tigers Force (STF), Bodoland Royal Tigers Force (BRTF) and APA. These are active in Bodoland Territorial Areas. The Rabha Viper Army is active in areas along the Assam-Meghalaya border in lower Assam.

            Formation of small groups is a part of the overall strategy of larger groups as well as the intelligence agencies which is ironic. Intelligence agencies have been splitting the larger groups thereby leading to their neutralization; on the other hand larger groups as the ULFA and NSCN IM have been using these smaller groups as extensions of their battle against the government while simultaneously remaining in a cease fire mode. Apparently such an arrangement seems to be working for the benefit of both sides but has wrecked havoc by criminalization and militarisation of society in the North East.

            In other developments, the pro talks ULFA faction announced cessation of all forms of armed campaign for an indefinite period. This was welcomed by the Government. In a statement Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram said: “Government of India welcomes the announcement made by the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) in a press release dated 12.7.2011 that it had resolved “to cease all forms of armed campaign for an indefinite period.”

            In February, 2011 the leaders of ULFA, including its Chairman, Shri Arabinda Rajkhowa, had called on the Chief Minister of Assam, Prime Minister and the Home Minister to seek a political solution to their demands. As the group abjured violence, laid down arms and sought a solution through peaceful and democratic means, the initiative was welcomed.

            The first step a Suspension of Operation (SoO) Agreement is likely to be signed and ground rules for observing the agreement finalised in the near future. The first round of talks may be held as early as in August. "The peace process entered a new stage after Ulfa announced a unilateral ceasefire. This is a positive development and we are inching closer to the final stage. We expect the peace talks to start in August," P C Haldar former IB chief and government’s top negotiator said. He is speaking to the ULFA, NDFB's pro-talks faction, the Dima Halom Daogah (DHD) and the United People's Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) on behalf of the Centre.

            This is the third peace bid between the ULFA and the government. The first was made in 1990 when a delegation of the outfit under ULFA general secretary Anup Chetia met then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao.  The second peace bid was initiated by Jnanpith awardee writer Mamoni Goswami in 2005 following the request from Baruah. Mamoni formed a People's Consultative Group (PCG) comprising representatives from the civil society to lay the ground for talks but there was no progress. The ULFA have charted their own set of discussion agenda and demands drafted by Sanmillita Jatiyo Obhiworton, a civil body led by some noted intellectuals of Assam and comprised and supported by over 100 civil, non-political, ethnic and student bodies of Assam.

            There are likely to be some challenges as the ULFA leadership is not keen to deposit weapons with the police and wants to have rehabilitation facilities. The anti talks faction led by Paresh Barua the Commander in Chief of the group who is in Myanmar is also likely to derail the process. “We’ve received intelligence inputs that Paresh Baruah is planning terror attacks in the state with help from Manipur-based People’s Liberation Army, the Maoists and some other extremist groups of the Northeast,” Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi said. “But we are alive to the situation and taking all precautionary measures to foil his designs.”