Sep 12, 2010

The Political Contests

            Known for extremely divisive politics, though it is bipolar, Bangladesh had seen some relative calm over the past few years most of it under an Emergency non political government. The overwhelming majority of the Awami League in the Parliament had some what subdued the opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and Jamaat E Islami alliance. However of late the ruling party has opened a number of fronts against the opposition threatening to try war criminals which include key Jamaat leaders and refusing to extend parole to the son of BNP leader, Khaleda Zia in a case of corruption. In addition there are likely to be tensions within the ruling coalition with the head of the Jatiya Party and former General Ershad’s regularisation of his political intervention through the 7^th Amendment rendered void by the High Court by quashing the Amendment.

The BNP has been particularly incensed with the decision of the government of cancelling parole of Arafat Rahman Koko and has demanded withdrawal of all cases against Khaleda and has started country wide protests on August 24 and 26. This is likely to be a bone of contention in the days ahead and the BNP may widen the agitation given the close maternal linkages between the leader of the Party and her son, always an important calculus in Bangladesh polity much as in other parts of South Asia.

            The chasm between the ruling Awami League and the BNP and Jamaat combine is also widening with the Prime Minister accusing the Jamaat and the BNP to be behind the August 2004 serial bomb attacks which were primed by the Jamatul Mujahideen Bangladesh. How much of this is based on evidence and how much is political posturing remains to be seen. On 11 August the police raided the city office of Jamaat and arrested at least 25 leaders and activists of the party and its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir on charges of, ‘hatching a conspiracy to carry out subversive activities’.

            With the Jamaat top leadership already in the dock it is evident that there is likely to be an increase in the political confrontation in the country, for though this move has to be seen in the light of the events of the past, there is more of a political colour with the Awami League associated with the war of liberation and thus pursuing war crimes. Thus what stand the BNP and the Jamaat now take remains to be seen for they have some support in the right wing nationalist lobbies in the country and therefore there is possibility of continued political confrontation. Whether this will spill on to the streets or not remains to be seen.

On 26 August the High Court declared illegal the seventh amendment to the country's constitution that legitimised HM Ershad's military takeover and acts under his military rule.  Ershad, the then chief of army staff, declared himself the chief martial law administrator and imposed martial law on March 24, 1982 and captured power from an elected government.  The ruling coalition may thus come under stress and relations between the Jatiya Party and the AL might deteriorate if the main ruling party does not help Ershad avoid prosecution.

On the whole however it is evident that the Awami League is attempting to ensure that the mass support base of the BNP and the Jamaat dwindles and all actions seem to be directed towards the same. The weak hold of the BNP in particular and the organisational dissonance within the Party may provide some openings for the Awami League to consolidate its hold on the polity however uncertainty remains.

SEP 2010

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