Apr 16, 2011

President Hamid Karzai’s seminal announcement of security transition of seven areas was a small but cautious step towards Afghan ownership what is known as Afghanisation and remained the highlight of the month of March. "Afghanistan will take over complete responsibility for security in the following areas from Saratan [22 June] of the current year,” Karzai said. “The responsibility for security of Kabul except for its Surobi district, Panjsher Province, Bamiyan Province, Herat city except for its districts, Lashkar Gah city, the capital of Helmand Province, Mazar-e Sharif, the capital of Balkh Province and Mehtarlam, the capital of Laghman Province. This transition process will expand from the center of the provinces to the districts," said Mr Karzai speaking symbolically at the National Military Academy in Kabul in front of officer cadets passing out of the Afghan National Army. The transition is in line with overall objective agreed to by leaders of troop contributing countries at Lisbon in November 2010 that Afghan forces will lead in security tasks by the end of 2014. There is increasing confidence that this would be so in the days ahead and with considerable progress in the past six months, though the path will continue to remain uncertain and full commitment would be necessary.

2011 thus seems to the Year of transition and reconciliation after the past two years were spend in Presidential and parliamentary elections. Now that these are out of the way it would be possible to focus on key issue of security by handing over districts and provinces in the country to Afghan forces and reaching out to the Taliban. The Taliban would most certainly like to disrupt the process of handing over by carrying out suicide attacks, kidnapping and targeting innocents as their presence in the provinces where the handing over is happening is limited. On the other hand in the reconciliation process varied elements are participating thereby indicating that there would be fly by night artists as well who are indulging in luring agencies into negotiations posing as high flying Taliban emissaries. Thus the Afghan government as well as NATO will have to meet this challenge in the days ahead.

Taliban and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Party have also called for a guarantee by international community and the US prior to peace negotiations. "The Taliban are making efforts to find a way to discuss Afghan issues under an international guarantee. And they want the discussions directly with the foreign forces," High Peace Council [HPC] Secretary Attaullah Ludin said. Meanwhile there is resistance to the Afghan Peace council from within the country as some Senators have called for termination of the HPC given that violence was continuing in the country despite ongoing talks with the Taliban. Senators were also critical of large number of civilian casualties in terrorist and suicide attacks launched in the past few months. Perhaps to some what assuage the Taliban; representatives of several Muslim countries are attending a meeting of the International Contact Group in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Members of a high-level Afghan delegation were among the participants of the meeting being held at the headquarters of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC).

Thus it is well accepted that the process of reconciliation will have to be inclusive. Given international involvement participation of global and regional players would be important for in a post International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) pull out scenario it is regional players from Russia to China, India, and Iran and finally Pakistan who are likely to either support or disrupt peace in the country after 2014. 

Iran for instance has welcomed announcement of transition but condemned the proposal for American bases. Iran’s Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar visiting the country during the month said that presence of foreign troops would not bring peace to the region. ISAF Spokesperson Gen. Josef Blotz highlighted there was some support from Iran "in terms of weapons", though he also stated that the Iranian government may not be behind it. Iran Afghan relations remain in a flux. While Afghanistan needs Iran as a neighbor with access to sea ports as well as aid and development there are concerns over Iran’s attempt to influence the internal space particularly in the West and Shia dominant provinces in the country.

Iran US relations have been confrontational therefore there are many allegations by the latter of Iran’s support to militancy in Afghanistan though there is a general consensus that this may not be coming through official channels. Such differences have placed relations between Iran and Afghanistan in an eternal dilemma and have resulted in a blow hot blow cold situation from time to time. Afghans recognize the need to keep the Iranians on the right side but with the need for Western support there is always a challenge of managing both for President Karzai and his team. On the whole how international, regional and internal players reconcile in Afghanistan would determine the way ahead for peace and long term stability in a country that has already seen over three decades of violence.

There are also some encouraging signs from the Taliban as so called, “supreme leader” Mullah Mohammad Omar issued a decree proscribing insurgents from attacking schools and intimidating schoolchildren as per Afghan Ministry of Education (MoE). “In his message to a Taliban military council in Khost Province [southeastern Afghanistan], Mullah Omar said attacks on schools and students are the work of the enemies of Afghanistan and Islam,” said MoE spokesman Sefatullah Sapai.

Pressure was also on President Karzai to dissolve the Special Electoral Tribunal from those parliamentarians who are under scrutiny. The Special Elections court has turned out to be a controversial body as the President and the Supreme court are alleged to have been influenced by a large Pashtun lobby given that Pashtuns were feeling wronged by election results in which they found that the Hazaras in particular had gained more seats. Any cancellation of the Special Court may invite adverse reaction from losing candidates and government would have to ensure that it is able to withstand this pressure. There is also a lobby of the so called Council of loser candidates which has criticized decision of parliamentarians who requested President Karzai to dissolve elections special court claiming foreign interference. The new parliament has also been increasingly assertive and did not approve the budget presented by the Finance Minister. This may in some ways mar the relations between the Afghan parliament and the President.

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