Jul 21, 2011

Regional Relations

Afghanistan was admitted to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation during the 10^th Anniversary summit held in the Kazakh capital in Astana. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) comprises China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan are observer states, while Belarus and Sri Lanka are dialogue partners. Afghanistan was a Special Invitee so far but has now been admitted as an observer.

Marshal Mohammed Qasim Fahim, First Vice President Afghanistan visited India from June 16-18, 2011. The visit of the First Vice President of Afghanistan is a continuation of the regular high level exchanges between India and Afghanistan. Afghanistan Defence Minister was on a Three-Day Visit to India. General Abdul Rahim Wardak reportedly discussed bilateral cooperation issues including capacity building of the Afghan security forces. India clarified that its "unique" friendship with Afghanistan is not aimed against any other country, an obvious reference to Pakistan.

The contours of the Indo Afghan defence agreement are now becoming clear. There is likely to be support in terms of training, arms and ammunition and maintenance and repair support. Provision of rifles, grenades, light machine guns and mortars along with requisite quantity of ammunition to the Afghan National Army and the police is likely. The latter in particular are deficient of a large number of weapons and if Afghanistan plans to equip and arm over 350, 000 troops over the next few years, a massive quantity of arms would be necessary. Indian arms would be most probably provided to the Police and there would be no grounds for objections from Pakistan. The arms package is likely to be in terms of a grant at no cost basis and thus may be more than welcome by the Afghan government.

Afghanistan is also likely to have a large fleet of Russian helicopters, thus maintenance and repair support can also be provided. Beyond this India is unlikely to do more as it would like to keep regional sensitivity in mind. While so far there have been no reactions from the Pakistani side on Indo Afghan initiatives there is likely to have been substantive support from the US for New Delhi to upgrade the defence support. However India has made it clear that it would not have a security role in the country. India’s Finance Minister and senior leader of the ruling party, Mr Pranab Mukherjee remarked on a visit to United States after meeting the Secretary of State, Ms Hillary Clinton, "We do not want to get involved in the security affairs of Afghanistan," in response to a question.

India is seeing prospects of mining in Afghanistan with the country’s enormous mineral wealth attracting the global industry.  Having identified mining as a source of national income the Afghans have already capitalised on the Aynak copper mines in the country which the Chinese are harvesting, now the Hajirak iron mines in the Bamiyan province are being projected as the next best asset and Indian companies are vying for the same. The Afghans however do not only want to export raw iron ore from the mines but want a steel factory be set up. Will the companies investing in the mines agree to the same remains to be seen for due to poor infrastructure in Afghanistan viability of the plant will be questionable? More over security will also remain a concern.

Iran has made a major effort to engage Afghanistan. President Hamid Karzai was in Tehran for an international conference hosted by Iran and had met with the Supreme Authority Ayatollah Khamanei. Iran’s Defence Minister Brigadier General Vahidi was in Kabul for the first time it is said in many decades. Iran and Afghanistan have signed an agreement to carry out simultaneous and coordinated operations against terrorist and extremist groups in the region

It is apparent that as Afghanistan is working out a strategic agreement with the United States for permanent or semi permanent basing of troops in the country, there is concern in Iran. Thus the reactions and statements from Tehran on the subject have increased. President Karzai on his part attempted to assuage the regional community during the recent SCO meet in Astana to ensure that they are not unduly worried about the agreement with the US. Iran which is most concerned given long standing enmity with Washington is likely to be impacted directly and is thus raising the ante in various forums including during the visit of the Defence Minister Brigadier General Vahidi to Kabul as well as the Parliament Speaker Mr Ali Larijani, a hard line conservative to various visitors from Afghanistan. However given that both Afghanistan and the US have determined the overall trajectory of security relationship in the future, Iran will have to face the reality of permanent presence of US troops in Afghanistan as well as Iraq.

            There were tensions in Af Pak relations with Afghanistan accusing Pakistan of missile attacks on the border. In other developments the long-awaited trade agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Afghanistan Pakistan Transit and Trade Agreement (APTTA) went into effect as a two-truck convoy carrying goods from Afghanistan was dispatched to Pakistan on its way to India for the first time under the new agreement. The APTTA is no doubt a seminal treaty which will go a long way in providing a fillip to the Afghan economy as access to markets particularly of agricultural produce will be provided with Afghan trucks travelling right up to the Indian border. So far this produce was being moved only by air thereby making it highly expensive. While no reverse trade is now possible due to apprehensions in Pakistan, optimists are hopeful that in the days to come this will also come about thereby overcoming the final hurdle in truly opening up Afghanistan to the World at large and to the South Asian region in particular.

            In some ways this will also enable containment of the poppy menace for as Afghan farmers find better prices for other cash crops they would turn to these rather than going in for the politically risky though very lucrative poppy farming. While Afghanistan continued to provide 70 percent of the drugs globally in 2010 due to blight on the poppy crop the production in the country has dropped which is however likely to go up in the coming year.

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