Dec 10, 2011

Afghan Strategic Partnership Regional Response

The Loya Jirga held in Afghanistan from 16 to 19 November has virtually accepted the presence of US troops in Afghanistan for a period of 10 years beyond 2014 that is up to 2024. This has raised varied reactions from regional stake holders given possibility of semi permanent presence of extra regional powers in the periphery. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters following a meeting in Moscow with his Kazakh counterpart, "----, it is important to understand what tasks will be solved by the military bases in Afghanistan, which will stay there after the announced withdrawal of troops in 2014," Lavrov said.  Kazakh Foreign Minister Yerzhak Kazykhanov spoke on similar lines, saying that, "The countries of the region and large powers should re-confirm their adherence to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Afghanistan. In my view, the main efforts should be aimed at prompt stabilization of the situation in the country and its economic rehabilitation," the minister said.

            While there has been no official Chinese reaction as compared to the Russians or the Indians who have criticized and welcomed the strategic cooperation agreement between Afghanistan and US respectively, normally Chinese media reports as that by Xinhua denote the official line which seems to be rejection of US presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014. Xinhua report commenting on the national jirga said, “in its latest efforts to achieve durable peace in the militancy-plagued country, the Afghan government convened the traditional Loya Jirga or grand assembly of chieftains, notables and functionaries last week to discuss the proposed Washington-Kabul strategic partnership, but received mixed reactions at home and abroad”.  Iran’s opposition to US presence in Afghanistan is now well recorded.

            Thus whether there would be some pressure on Afghanistan to reduce the tenure or to curtail the deployment remains to be seen, but this would certainly strain relations between Kabul and regional partners including Russia. Alternately Russia may link the US presence in the country with other European issues such as missile defence and demand concessions on that front, so how the overall Russia US relations shape up also will dictate the Afghan pact.

            Against this back drop Afghanistan is careful that it does not go into the Bonn Conference after signing an agreement with the US. For this will be certainly criticized by regional players thereby putting President Karzai in an embarrassing situation with major countries such as Iran and Russia openly opposing a longer stay for the US in the country. Meanwhile given likely drop in relations between Pakistan and the US there would be problems from that end as well. Thus how the overall regional resistance builds up and what form it takes in Bonn and beyond remains to be seen. The Afghan government seems to be playing safe to sign any agreement before the same except for the Indian one in the kitty.

While the focus is on the Afghan agreement with the US there have been a number of parallel ones that have been signed with regional players. India is the first while UK is also in the line up after the Bonn Conference, thus the trends seem to be universal. The Meshrano Jirga, upper house of Parliament also approved three agreements with Iran, Russia and Tajikistan.

Mindful of these concerns, the delicate balancing that both India and Afghanistan have been doing over Indo Afghan strategic partnership agreement inked last month is evident with both President Karzai and Indian external affairs minister indicating that this was not against any other country and would take into account the sensitivity of Pakistan at the Istanbul Conference. There are concerns that Pakistan would view the agreement in terms of a zero sum game by both India and Afghanistan to hedge against a security threat from Islamabad by working a joint agreement amongst themselves. However it is evident that with gradual improvement between India Pakistan relations there has been a spin off in Afghanistan as well as and Pakistan does not seem to be viewing the Indo Afghan treaty as harmful to its interests as would have been otherwise thought to be just a few months ago. However skeptics are still worried and the true test of acceptance will come if there is no attack against Indian assets in Afghanistan.

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