Apr 16, 2011

Given the focus on transition the rapid growth in ANA numbers is encouraging. In January 2011, the Afghan army numbered about 152,000 soldiers, up from 97,000 in November 2009. The Afghan National Police were at 118,000 police officers, up from 95,000 in November 2009, according to U.N. and NATO figures. In January 2010, international donors had agreed to expand the army and police force to about 306,000 by October 2011, including 171,600 soldiers and 134,000 police. In February 2011, U.S. General William Caldwell, head of the U.S. and NATO training mission had called for the expansion of Afghan forces to 370,000. While this figure appears justified, the problem will be of financially supporting such a large army.

However capacity for training is good, with 4000 plus soldiers joining the Army,1200 NCOs and 75 officers each month  building a force of roughly 350,000 to 450,000 by 2014 including the Afghan police would not be difficult. Improving the quality and nationalist commitment of soldiers and officers, would be the main challenge as there is disparity in representation by ethnic groups. The Taliban is also ensuring that lesser numbers from the South and the East join the Army and the Police. However with better pay and allowances, the level of training going up and increase in numbers going hand in hand, the balance may shift gradually.

Afghan soldiers are also bearing the brunt of the campaign as indicated by numbers killed as per figures provided for the Afghan year, which ends March 21by defence ministry spokesman, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Zahir Azimi. 725 Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers had lost their lives in clashes with insurgents and in bomb attacks, the told a press conference in Kabul. ISAF fatal casualties were 711 in 2010 as per iCasualties.org.

The Afghan Army’s need to counter any challenge to the state after the pull out by NATO by 2014   would underline training for conventional and semi conventional operations for it is more than likely that the groups which continue to be controlled by the Pakistan intelligence such as the Haqqani and the Mullah Omar Taliban would attempt to make a come back and reassert their presence in case the reconciliation process does not fall in place.  Afghan forces are also keen for a conventional capability. The Afghan Air Force (AAF) is aspiring to have fighter aircraft and attack helicopters. The organisation is emerging as a viable entity over a period and is involved in providing logistics support to government activities including elections and inauguration of the parliament on 26 January wherein multiple aircraft were used from various AAF squadrons. These aircraft contained specially configured Mi-17 variants and Mi-35 attack helicopters to support the inauguration. The mission types performed included armed escort, VIP transport and reconnaissance.  Thus a balanced Afghan security forces with limited conventional, major sub conventional and counter terrorism capability should be the target for 2014.

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