Nov 14, 2010

      Peace Talks: Hopes Remain

A High Council for Peace [HPC] has been set up with Burhanuddin Rabbani as the head comprising of 70 members. The council would discuss working mechanism and issues for holding talks with the, “opposition,” as the Taliban are referred to by the Government. The appointment of Burhanuddin Rabbani as the head of the High Council of Peace is based on his successful management of the Peace Jirga and his efforts to contact Taliban and other anti-government groups for paving the ground for peace in the country. However there are many complexities involved both internal and external. A spokesman for Coalition of Change and Hope, Fazel Sancharaki, stated that the High Peace Council is not as per Afghanistan Constitution. Some parliamentarians and observers also believe that the HPC is incapable to make the peace process a success as some members of the Council including its head, were party to the conflict, and thus will not help bring the Taliban members back to a normal life.

o   Externally Pakistan's Prime Minister unequivocally stated that peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban cannot succeed without Islamabad’s help. Thus the role that Pakistan would like to play and that which the international community would like it to play may lead to some differences. Saudi Arabia is also being induced to participate in the talks. The Saudis has been a guarantor in talks with the Taliban in the previous rounds as well though publicly being a sensitive issue the same has not been accepted.   The Saudis have immense clout with the Taliban leadership given that it was one of the countries along with Pakistan and the UAE which had accorded international approval to the regime. Thus these countries will certainly have a hold over the Taliban in varying degrees. More over with traditional religious influence of the Saudis and the UAE as a trading hub, the combination can act very effectively to support peace talks by the government. More over given strong relationship of both Pakistan as well as the United States with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, there would be enough trust per se to protect interests of the US and the West. However officially it is unlikely that this role will be accepted openly by any of the countries except Pakistan which has repeatedly indicated that it would like to play a major role in all negotiations.

o   The United Nations mission in Afghanistan has also announced a support group of experts, Salaam Support Group, which will be available to the High Peace Council to support all aspects of its work.  

o   Reports of three Taliban leaders secretly meeting the President are another stream of the peace talks which was held reportedly to marginalize the Haqqani group. The Taliban leaders who met with Karzai are Maulvi Abdul Kabir, the governor of eastern Nangarhar province during the Taliban rule and the current head of the Taliban’s Peshawar council, his deputy governor in the Taliban regime, Sedre Azam and Anwarul Haq Mujahed, a terrorist leader from eastern Afghanistan. The report has been confirmed some time back by NATO commander in Afghanistan Gen Petraeus who indicated that forces had facilitated movement of some Taliban leaders. As one of the leader at least was in Pakistan custody the role of Islamabad in the same is also confirmed. That the government is independently holding these talks with the Taliban in addition to nomination of the High Peace Council would indicate that the Mr Karzai is still in the mode of breaking the ice. The High Peace Council in turn would also be looking at providing the inputs for stage managing as well as working out modalities of an overall settlement.

o   The complexity of the talks with the Taliban are thus now unraveling with a number of vectors and stake holders it appears that the primary players the Quetta Shura Taliban, the Hizb and the Haqqani faction are not likely to be coming overboard in the near future. So far substantial talks have been held only with the Hizb. The outcome of the same is not encouraging. The Haqqani faction remains recalcitrant in North Waziristan area and though its influence in Afghanistan per se is limited geographically intensity of attacks that it launches in the capital Kabul has been severe and it is also known to be closely linked with a number of foreign militant groups. More over the patronage of the Pakistan secret agency the ISI is also a plus for the Haqqanis. Therefore what the talk’s front will unravel may be too early to predict. The process of reintegration on the other hand seems to be going better and a number of smaller groups have come joined the government side but to keep them fully engaged will remain a challenge.

NOV 2010