Feb 15, 2012

India Will Continue Balance in Relations in West Asia

            The 13 February terrorist attack using technique that is prevalent in West Asia starkly brought New Delhi in the ambit of geopolitical rivalry in that region even as India claims to have successfully balanced relations with diverse players in the volatile complexity that best represents state of affairs in that part of the World. With the US also breathing down India for enforcing more stringent sanctions on Iran, New Delhi will be inevitably drawn in the vortex of power politics in the Middle East. That India is not likely to fall to the temptation or trap as some would say to side with either of the actors despite ignominy that New Delhi has had to face to explain a terrorist strike in the heart of the capital is more than evident now.

Indian security and external affairs leadership has maintained an even temper.  Union home minister P Chidambaram confirmed that the incident was a terrorist attack but stated, "We are not pointing fingers at anyone or any group yet, but we condemn the attack in the strongest terms." Home secretary RK Singh was equally cautious. "Who planned and executed the blast will be known only after the investigation makes progress," he said. The External Affairs Minister has also been similarly reticent in blaming any entity.

In case the attackers or those behind the same intended to drive a wedge in relations between India and Iran or India and Israel by any account they are likely to fail. India cannot abandon a trading partner as Iran with over $ 10 billion dollar plus imports most of it energy over a terror attack whose antecedents are difficult to trace. Nor would it be able to sever its strong defence relationship with Tel Aviv which is also growing in the field of counter terrorism as well as trade in the past few years.

Yet there may be some change in the approach towards Iran in particular with New Delhi likely to require some guarantees that it would not have to face such a dilemma in the future. These assurances will obviously not be made publicly but may be necessary given that India was all set to expand engagement with Iran on the economic front which may suffer a setback without such guarantees. For Tehran shunned by the World and problems arising in commercial pacts with China, India was affording some succor. This is one reason why Iran specialists as Trita Parsi have debunked the theory that Iran could be behind the attack in New Delhi in particular. But such is the world of cloak and dagger proxy terror that no options can be really ruled out.

By the nature of close relationship that New Delhi has developed over the years with various states in West Asia conflict of interests of sorts with Iran, Israel or Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries was inevitable. So far India had been successfully wooing all these countries simultaneously given crucial national interests to include energy, large number of migrant and expatriates and remittances by them along with trade and defence particularly with Israel. There would be a need to recalibrate relations to ensure that India does not become a victim of the proxy war between these countries which is increasingly coming out in the open for national interest will demand a balance.

India’s major concerns however should be on the counter terrorism front. With a high level of alert at all Israeli embassy locations across the World it is apparent that Delhi even though vulnerable to terrorism in the past has not been as cautious as it should be and the security gap has been duly exploited by inimical forces operating in the Middle East where a long standing asymmetric campaign of terrorist attacks, assassinations and cyber penetrations has been ongoing for some years now. While the Israel embassy itself is very well secured it is apparent that the attacker was aware of gaps and targeted the vehicle most significantly that carrying a lady, the wife of defence attaché thereby sending a dire signal. Terrorism is after all about signaling. Thankfully there has been no loss of life.

The use of magnetic strap on bomb is another worry for the security establishment which has had to contend with poor intelligence and investigation capacity over the past few years even though post incident response has improved. There are rightly many concerns on the ease with which the attack was carried out and lack of trace of the attacker who seems to have gone unnoticed by the spate of CCTV cameras around the area though not at the exact location as well as the large number of police posted particularly for traffic duties there.

While falling in a zone that is marked by VIP residences including many embassies this may not be strictly a high security zone given that there are no restrictions for traveling that have been imposed on common citizens. Thus the selection of the spot and the nature of the attack would denote expert involvement as compared to the attacks at Tbilisi and in Bangkok. All this would imply greater stringency for New Delhi in counter terrorist containment in the days and months ahead. There is long way to go for India to be terror free even though large ticket schemes as National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) are in the offing, grass roots capacity building in policing, intelligence and investigation remains weak.

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