Nov 14, 2010

The Way Ahead – Sino Indian Relationship

Ironically the Chinese who are masters of balance of power politics seem to be protesting once India is perceived to be trying the same game. It was obvious that Indian Prime Ministers visit to Japan will raise hackles in the Beijing and this has been reflected in the People’s Daily responses. The People’s Daily is the official news agency which normally reflects the views of the government and has attempted to paint the visit as an alliance between two countries India and Japan with anti China sentiment. Given the recent incidents of clashes on the claimed islands between China and Japan which had also led to protests in China there are rising tensions and Beijing has thus possibly viewed the visit of the Indian Prime Minister and particularly signing of a comprehensive economic agreement with the country with some concern. This may lead to some challenges in the Sino Indian relations in the days ahead and therefore India will have to carefully manage its relationship with countries on Chinese periphery to prevent these being seen as forming a coterie against Beijing.

Indian and the Chinese Prime Minister have met in Hanoi for the first time after many months wherein the issue of suspension of defence exchanges and the staple visas to citizens of Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir had lowered relations between the two countries by some notches. But both Dr Man Mohan Singh and Mr Wen Jiabao share a personal rapport which has been used too much effect in the past but this time around it does not appear to have had much impact except for exchange of many pleasantries. Never the Less some of the key issues that can be flagged in relation to the Indo China relations are as follows:-

Boundary Issue – peace is likely to continue, negotiations through Special Representatives mechanism which will meet by end of November, however we expect no substantial progress only more rounds of talks.

Defence Exchange – Suspension is likely to continue at least till the expected visit of Premier Wen Jiabao to India in 2010 or 2011.

Jammu and Kashmir Stapled Visas – Status quo is likely to be maintained by China.

Trade – Attempts to reduce the trade deficit are likely to continue, trade volumes may remain below $ 60 billion.

International and Global issues – Common approach likely in Cancun, climate talks and global trade issues.

The next point of inflection in the relationship is likely to be a visit by Premier Wen Jiabao to New Delhi, though it is yet to be determined whether it will be this year, but given the lack of time for preparation it is anticipated that the same may be in 2011 rather than 2010.

India’s long term approach to Sino Indian relations can be summed up by Man Mohan Singh’s interview to a Japanese TV channel. In response to a question by the interviewer, Will India counter Chinese aggressiveness or accept it as a reasonable phenomenon? India’s Prime Minister Dr Man Mohan Singh highlighted, “We all are trying to respond and readjust to global trends towards multi-polarity and managing the regional environment in Asia in a manner which enhances peace, security and overall development of our societies. It is incumbent on all countries of the region to build cooperative partnerships and work towards an open and inclusive regional architecture. Inter-state relations must be based on the five principles of peaceful co-existence. It is in this context that we also approach our relations with China, with whom we have established a Strategic and Cooperative Partnership”.

NOV 2010

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