Nov 20, 2010

Comments on Militancy

Inspector General (IG) Frontier Corps (FC) Nadir Zeb claimed that the security forces  cleared almost 90 percent area of Orakzai Agency of terrorists Upper Orakzai Agency however is likely to see more operations in the area of Mamozai. 67 personnel of the security forces were killed and 213 were injured while 654 terrorists were killed and 250 others injured in the operation. 32000 families were forced to leave their houses and 95 percent schools in the Agency were razed down. This denotes the overall challenge of militancy with the ratio of security forces to terrorists killed being as high as 1: 10 while the challenge of development denoted by the large number of schools destroyed

After claiming success in Orakzai, pressure on the Pakistan military is likely to continue to launch operations in North Waziristan. It is more than likely that Pakistan may be forced to launch some operations including air and helicopter if only to assuage pressure from NATO forces. But the resistance is likely to remain as internally there are no signs that militant groups in North Waziristan are posing a terror challenge in the country per se and with their attention primarily focused on Afghanistan, domestic public opinion may not see any operation by the Pakistan Army in the area favourably.

The Pakistan army is conscious that a semblance of success would require local support which possibly is not existing in North Waziristan where a large number of groups are also having peace deals with the army such as Nek Mohammad and Hafiz Gul Bahadur who had assured the army that they would remain on its side as it took on the Mehsuds in the South. There are tribal differences as well with the North Waziristan mainly housing the Wazirs as against the Mehsuds which are at war with the Pakistan state.

The Pakistan Army claims deployment of over 38,000 troops in the area, however incessant attacks in Afghanistan as the one in Paktika where 80 terrorists were killed in one day demonstrates there is still a long way to go to ensure that these ingresses are controlled. With the Yemen bomb parcels case now coming to light it would be evident that the Al Qaeda has many such options and therefore there is a need for stringent military action in North Waziristan. When this happens there is likely to be improvement on the Afghan side in the Eastern provinces as well.

NOV 2010