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Security Trends South Asia » India Defence » India Nuclear Deal and Government Stability

May 1, 2008

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India : Stability of Government and Nuclear Deal

 

Key Trends

 

  • Joint Committee negotiations on the Indo US Nuclear Deal do not denote any change of stance by the UPA Government or the Left parties. Stability of the Government and conclusion of the Indo US Nuclear Deal in a jeopardy. A discussion of scenarios denotes political instability hopefully short lived.
  • The Israel and Pakistan Factor may lead to resistance by the NSG unless US employs influence to steer the Deal through.
  • `Give and Take` to Resolve Sino Indian Boundary Issue indicates a major shift in the present government`s policy with a pragmatic approach.
  • Increased military spending to worsen security in S Asia states IISS Military Balance.
  • Indo Pakistan CBMs to continue with three meetings scheduled in October. Siachen trekking expedition and Ex Himalayan Warrior in Ladakh draws adverse reactions from Islamabad.
  • Joint Training - Key to Future Military Engagement as India undertakes a series of exercises from Malabar in the Bay of Bengal to Indra near St Petersburgh in Russia. Creation of Joint Centres of Excellence will enhance scope.
  • Change of Baton COSC and Chief of the Army Staff. New incumbent`s first challenge may be to resolve AV Singh Committee Phase II impasse over vacancy sharing in higher ranks to build true joint ness.
  • Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System planned by ISRO will provide exponential potential for credible navigation system in future.
  • UAV`s - Focus for the future as India procures a series of surveillance and anti radiation craft.
  • Rohtang tunnel work begins in 2008 to be completed by 2013 reinforcing the Ladakh link with the country.
  • DGQA to automate and enhance Quality Assurance support to users.
  • Surveillance grid in Kashmir exploits technology for countering infiltration
  • Indo Myanmar Border Security to be enhanced with a fencing and a parallel road.
  • Freedom to Use the Seas: India`s Maritime Military Strategy (IMMS) sets the tone for nuclear submarine acquisition and credible second strike capability.
  • Malabar 2007: denotes options to extend maritime power through multilateral naval engagement.
  • INS Jalashwa : enhances amphibious and disaster relief capability
  • Ayni base in Tajikistan provides an ideal outflanking option and toe hold in Central Asia.
  • India`s Air Power focus in the east with planned location of modern fighters including Sukhois and MRCAs as Tezpur base is closed down for renovation.

 

Indo US Civil Nuclear Deal : Scenarios Ahead

The last hope of a rapprochement over stand off between UPA government and the Left parties supporting it from outside on the Indo US Nuclear Deal was the CPM politburo meet which concluded in Kolkata on 29 September. Congress leaders were pinning their bets on West Bengal veterans Jyoti Basu and Buddhadeb Bhattacharya who were seen as soft on the Deal. However these hopes were belied when Jyoti Basu brought out that there was no difference of opinion in the politburo. He also indicated that, "We have a meeting of the coordination committee of UPA and Left that is examining the nuclear deal on October 5 and another meeting on October 14. If they do not accept our demands on the deal, we may have to take the next step." So middle October will be a critical period for the future of the UPA government. The possible scenarios that could emerge could be as follows:-

 

Scenario 1. UPA accepts Left recommendation to delay the Deal by six months.

 

      • The UPA Government will survive however this extension has to be acceptable to the Bush Administration. It has touted the Indo US Nuclear Deal as a major foreign policy initiative personally led by the President. Indo US relations in the short term may be adversely impacted.
      • Indo US Nuclear Deal will need a review after six months.
      • The Congress Party will be seen as weak and face electoral losses.
      • Even if the US administration agrees for a delay, will the response satisfy the Left parties remains a question mark.
      • Possibility. Limited.
      • Trends. US administration has demonstrated flexibility in understanding the problems faced by the Man Mohan Singh government.

 

Scenario 2. UPA rejects Left demands for non operationalisation of the Deal. This would result in fall of the government and the following situations:-

 

      • The Left may either openly withdraw support from the government or seek a No Confidence vote in the Parliament which may result in two sub scenarios -

 

Scenario 2 A. Left withdraws support from the Government.

 

      • Government may continue to survive as it has six months grace period and would like to time the mid term elections to advantage.
      • However no major decisions by the UPA Government are likely.
      • Possibility. Possible as the Left is least prepared for elections. Mid term elections will be held in second quarter of 2008.

 

Scenario 2 B. Left or UNPA seek No Confidence Vote in the Parliament. The Left will vote against the government leading to its fall.

 

      • Mid term elections would be inevitable before end of the Year.
      • Possibility. Lesser possibility than Scenario 2 A. However the Congress may exercise this option as it would facilitate the Party to consolidate the positive mood over the Deal and also entry of Rahul Gandhi in active politics as General Secretary of the Party.
      • Trends. Another possibility is sponsoring of such a move by the UNPA. A Times of India report indicated that the CPM leaders had a meeting with leaders of Samajwadi Party and TDP in New Delhi recently which is said to have assessed that the government would reach out to IAEA for safeguards negotiations after mid-October.
      • Under the circumstances the UNPA headed by the Samajwadi Party will call for a no confidence vote avoiding a possible embarrassment to the Left of being accused of bringing down a government it supported from outside.

 

Scenario 3. The Left agrees to UPA arguments over the Deal, since there are 15 days more before a final decision.

 

      • Possibility. Not likely, however in case UPA negotiators resort to political rather than technical arguments, there is greater scope for convincing the Left parties. Thus Scenario 3 may be more likely in this case.

 

The Israel and Pakistan Factor in NSG

In the mean while, additional hurdles were likely in obtaining consensus in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Pakistan and Israel have formed an unprecedented alliance in playing spoilers by demanding "criteria-based changes" and waivers similar to the ones extended to India in the Indo-US nuclear deal. A document circulated among 45 NSG members by Israel demands criteria to serve as the basis for "nuclear collaboration" between the group. The criteria should be aimed, Israel demands, at controlling global trade in nuclear material and technology, and should specify conditions for the states that have not signed the NPT. Pakistan is a member of the IAEA Board of Governors and is strongly opposing the deal on the board. (Daily Times Report). Comments. There is a strong possibility that in order to deprive both Israel because of pressures from the Middle East lobby and Pakistan a known proliferator through the A Q Khan network, the NSG may not agree to the India specific proposal. However the US may exercise pressure on Israel to keep its proposal in the cold till India`s case is cleared. All these factors increase uncertainties surrounding the Indo US Nuclear Deal.


Foreign and Defence Policy

Increased military spending to worsen security in S Asia

The IISS latest Military Balance indicates that South Asia is going through a phase of increased defence spending which would exacerbate the internal as well as external disputes and human security conditions in the region. Giving a tally of the strength of the armed forces in South Asia, with Afghanistan having 50,000 troops besides the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) personnel, Bangladesh 126,500, India 1,316,000, Nepal 69,000, Pakistan 619,000, and Sri Lanka 150,900 the report indicates that military structure of India and Pakistan is both cumbersome and huge.

The defence expenditure, with that Bangladesh at $840 million, India $21.7 billion, Nepal $139 million, Pakistan $4.14 billion and Sri Lanka $686 million per year is also comparatively high. India`s purchase of USS Trenton, an amphibious transport dock-class ship, with four landing craft, from the US for $48.23 million in August 2006, and orders of three modified Krivak III frigates on July 6, 2006, from Russia for $1.1 billion have also found mention in the report. The report predicts an interim order of Mirage fighters from France due to t IAF`s concern over reduction of fighter squadrons from the current 32 to 28 by 2012. The air force RFP of 126 multi-role combat aircraft, 80 new helicopters and light combat aircraft has also been mentioned.

Pakistan on the other hand is purchasing six Swedish SAAB 2000 turboprop AWACS worth $1.15 billion ordered in June 2006 with radars from Ericsson Microwave Systems. Pakistan also signed a major $5 billion arms deal with the US on September 30, 2006, to purchase 18 new F-16C/D fighter aircraft equipped with AMRAAM - beyond visual range air-to-air-missiles - with the option to buy 18 additional new aircraft and upgrade its existing 34 F-16 aircraft. Pakistan Air Force is also planning to acquire up to 150 JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft worth $2 billion and an estimated 36 J-10 fighter aircraft worth $1.2 billion from China. The JF 17 are also likely to be assembled in Pakistan. However a dispute over transfer of Russian made RD 93 engines for the aircraft to Pakistan may delay the acquisition.

Siachen Trekking Expedition

 

A 42-member team which includes 10 civilians led by Army climbers began a 20-day trek from Leh in Ladakh to the Siachen Glacier heights on 25 September. The glacier has been recently opened to the public for adventure sports and tourism. The expedition was flagged off by General Officer Commanding Lt Gen P C Bhardwaj. The team is led by Maj P D Thakur and consists of seven media persons, three civilians, two Gentlemen Cadets of Indian Military Academy, four cadets each of the Rashtriya Indian Military College and Rashtriya Military School, Chail, and six NCC cadets from Ladakh. (MOD India Press Release). Pakistan protested holding of international exercises in Ladakh as well as the civilian trekking expedition to Siachen which it said were being conducted in an area which was internationally accepted as disputed. Thus these moves by India were as much political statements of assertion over Jammu and Kashmir as opening up areas for civilians and armed forces personnel both from home and abroad.

 

International Military Cooperation

Joint Training - Key to Future Military Engagement

 

Joint training and exercises between armed forces is emerging as a major paradigm of international military cooperation in the future. Indian armed forces have been regularly participating in a number of joint training exercises with different armed forces across the World, be it Russia, the USA, UK, France or Thailand. Mostly these exercises have been held at the company level for the Army, task force level for the Navy and flight and squadron level for the IAF. Yet these have provided very useful operational sharing experience. Malabar 07, a multilateral exercise came in the media limelight due to considerable political opposition to it from various quarters in India. This was the first shift from India`s traditional policy of holding only bilateral exercises. The former Naval Chief Admiral Arun Prakash indicated that this was more due to operational convenience as it simplified compressing training with a number of navies in one event rather than having a number of one on one exercises. Whether this shift is permanent in nature will be seen in the years ahead. Apart from Malabar 07 there were many other major exercises carried out by the armed forces.

 

Indra 07. A Joint Indo-Russian Indra 07 Exercise was conducted from 11 Sep to 20 Sep 07at Pskov near St Petersburg in Russia. The theme of Indra-07 was Counter-Terrorism. Special airborne forces of the two countries jointly planned and conducted air and ground manoeuvres to neutralize concentration of international terrorists in a third country, under a UN mandate. The joint training, planning and tactical manoeuvres commenced in Pskov on 11 Sep 07 and continued for next ten days. The manoeuvres were conducted under the aegis of Russian 76 Airborne Division and involved over 400 airborne special forces troops of the two countries; plethora of state-of-art battle equipment as well as a large number of fixed and rotary wing aircrafts; UAVs and aircrew. 160 Indian Air Borne troops participated in the Exercise.

 

Objectives

 

  • Develop and refine integrated planning system for employment in joint counter- terrorist operations

 

  • Determine rules of engagements and constraints viz, legal regime and

mandate; HR concept or Law of war; collateral damage etc

 

  • Achieve process as well as equipment interoperability

 

  • Exchange combat experience to refine tactics, drills and techniques

 

Scenario and Ex Setting

 

  • Counter-terrorism theme involving launch of joint airborne force under the mandate of UN for seeking and eliminating terrorist leadership operating from a neutral country, at their request

 

Command and Control

 

  • Overall - Lt Gen NI Ignatov, Commanding General Russian 76 Airborne Division

 

  • Joint Ex Control - Lt Gen B S Jaswal, Director General Infantry, (Now GOC 4 Corps) with representatives from Russian AB forces and Indian & Russian troop contingent

 

  • Joint Safety and Control Organization

 

Indian Participation

 

  • AB Task Force & Combat Free Fallers - 72 personnel

 

  • AB Support Group ( AirMech, AB ATGM, AB Engrs, AB Med) - 24 Personnel

 

  • Command and Control (Battalion HQ Elements) - 28 personnel

 

  • Air Crew (Air force) and Observers - 38 personnel

 

  • Vehicles, Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs) and electronic surveillance including night vision devices.

 

 

The manoeuvres were conducted in three phases culminating in a realistic simulated joint operational exercise involving surveillance, acquiring and assessing of intelligence; joint planning; multi-directional mass airborne insertion and tactical Para drop; regrouping into joint task forces and joint teams; followed by a series of counter-terrorist operations. The manoeuvres involved cross-country movement over approx 100 km post air insertion; assault crossing of a river obstacle; destruction of terrorist hides and extrication from the target area into neutral territory. The exercise was structured so as to enhance interoperability and maximize mutual learning from each others rich combat experiences.

 

The Indian airborne forces from the Parachute Regiment benefited from the experience, operational concepts and tactical designs and methodologies of their Russian counterparts. Joint command & control at all levels helped the two forces in refining processes, procedures and drills so as to enhance inter-operability. (MOD India Press Release).

 

Varuna 07. Indian and the French Navy participated in "Varuna 07", a sea and air military exercise that commenced on 11 Sep 07 off Somalia coast and in the Gulf of Aden. The aim of the exercise was to increase the navies' interoperability and included manoeuvres such as visiting ships by airborne and seaborne means, commando projection and air to surface exercise as well as a maritime patrol. The French contribution came from units based in Djibouti (six Mirage 2000 and two Pumas helicopters) as well as under Alindien's (the Admiral commanding the Indian Ocean maritime zone) command; a maritime patrol aircraft, a corvette ("Commandant Blaison") and the "La Motte Picquet" frigate. The Indian Navy participated with the destroyer "Rajput", guided missile frigate " Beas", supply ship - the "Jyoti" - two helicopters as well as several commando units. (MOD India Press Release).

 

 

 

Himalayan Warrior. Elite Special Forces from India and the UK conducted a three-week drill called "Himalayan Warrior" in Ladakh. The troops, included 120 men from Britain and 140 from India. The training was carried out at an altitude of 16,000 feet (4,900 meters) and 19,000 feet (5,800 meters). Sharing of experiences of battling "terrorism" in Kashmir and Afghanistan and improving endurance and survivability in high-altitude areas and tough climatic conditions were the aims of the exercise. The manoeuvres included mock strikes on enemy hide-outs and hit-and-run raids by troops operating in small groups at extreme heights of more than 3,500 meters. The exercises also involved heliborne operations with small units of troops being dropped at extreme heights and then going through survival endurance tests chased by well-armed pursuers.

 

This event is also seen as a culmination of three years of intense interaction between the Royal Marines (RM) mountain leaders and the Indian Army's Gulmarg-based High Altitude Warfare School(HAWS). Ladakh region has been selected for the joint manoeuvres as the terrain has resemblance to the rugged highlands in Afghanistan where US-led coalition forces are combating Taliban militia. (India-defence.com Report).

 

Amongst forthcoming exercises is joint training between Indian and Singapore Air Force. A delegation led by Republic of Singapore Chief of Staff, Brigadier General Seah Wee Charles SIH, visited Headquarters Eastern Air Command, Shillong on 14 September, to discuss an Indian Air Force - Republic of Singapore Air Force joint exercise with Air Marshal PK Barbora VM, Air Officer Commanding-in-Chief, EAC. The joint exercises will be held in November 2007, at Air Force Station Kalaikunda which has already hosted a number of International level joint exercises with many foreign Air Forces including two with Republic of Singapore Air Force in the year 2006.

 

Following the joint training between Indian Army and the PLA, India will hold a joint naval exercise with China for the first time in November. The Defence Minister Mr A K Antony stated that, "The propaganda that conduct of joint military exercises will amount to surrendering India's independent policy had no basis as such exercises had taken place under all the governments since 1992" Antony said, addressing a study camp for Congress workers here. (Times of India Report).

 

Proposed Centres of Excellence

 

Indian Armed Forces have a major advantage of extensive experience in counter terrorism and insurgency. In addition a rich maritime culture and fighter operations expertise with advanced facilities denotes that India will remain a much sought after partner for joint training by armed forces across the board. Creating Centres of Excellence where training facilities facilitate consolidation of specialised training at a single location thereby enabling clustering of knowledge and expertise to advantage could be considered. NATO has effectively employed this concept. Centres of excellence are located in different countries of the alliance thereby facilitating economy and retention of core expertise.

 

India`s military infra structure is vast and creation of joint centres of excellence will provide the country not just valuable exposure to advanced training techniques but also additional revenue. Ladakh is an ideal terrain for training troops in mountain and high altitude warfare especially with a matching ground profile as that obtained in Afghanistan, albeit with higher altitudes. This will provide major advantage to NATO troops prior to induction for combat in Afghanistan and should be exploited to advantage by the Indian army by creating facilities for western forces in the area. Counter Insurgency and Jungle Warfare School Vairengte is already a much sought after destination for training in counter insurgency by armies of the World. The facilities can be expanded to absorb additional training forces. Kalaikunda in West Bengal is an ideal air force base which is being regularly utilized for joint training. For instance training with Singapore which has a modern air force with F 16 fighters is considerably benefiting the IAF. Singapore lacks adequate air space for conduct of large scale manoeuvres being an island city state, hence the facilities at Kalaikunda are especially useful. In the maritime field, Goa and Vishakapatnam are ideal locations off the Western and Eastern sea board respectively. Thus selection and development of such Centres of Excellence will further enhance the scope for training and interoperability with other armed forces of the World.

 

Joint Armed Forces Capability Building

 

Change of Baton COSC and COAS

 

Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta took over as Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) from the outgoing Chairman General JJ Singh. In a ceremony held in Defence Headquarters 28 September, Gen Singh handed over the baton of Chairman COSC to Admiral Mehta. (MOD India Report). On 30 September, General Deepak Kapoor took over as the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS). One of the key concerns for the new Chairman COSC and the COAS will be building consensus on Phase 2 of the AV Singh Committee report which seeks to enhance the number of vacancies in the flag ranks in the Services. Considerable differences over pro rata ratio of vacancies have emerged between the three services leading to intervention by the Defence Ministry.

 

Phase-II of the AV Singh Committee report, envisaged 735 more Colonels (to add to the existing 4,186), 220 more Brigadiers (971), 75 more Maj-Gens (216), and 20 more Lt-Gens(68) for the Army. IAF will get 38 new Air Vice-Marshals and Air Marshals, while Navy will get 23 new Rear Admirals and Vice-Admirals. But the issue remained contentious with each service chief wanting additional vacancies. (Times of India Report).

 

Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System

 

India will establish, Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System (IRNSS), a constellation of seven satellites into a geo-synchronous orbit in the next six years to create a comprehensive navigational system for the South Asian region. This system is designed to provide accurate positioning and timing data to aircraft and ships and will be on the lines of the US Global Positioning System (GPS). The first of the seven satellites would be launched in 2009. All satellites will be carried on PSLVs and the total cost of the project is estimated to be Rs 1600 Crore.

 

The most potent benefit from the Navigational satellite system will be to the to the Indian military. This will provide it reach and the capacity to control the entire spectrum of activities which are within the domain of space based navigation, including accuracy of terminal guided weapon systems, missiles and location of surface forces and other assets. What is more significant is the authenticity and credibility of the inputs which will not be susceptible to manipulation and jamming by other countries.

 

UAV`s - Focus Capabilities for the Future

 

Indian forces have inducted over 60 Israeli Searcher-II, Heron and other UAVs as "force-multipliers'' in reconnaissance missions as well as for precision-strike operations. Two new UAV squadrons of Herons, with eight drones each for Srinagar-based 15 Corps and Leh-based 14 Corps are being operationalised by the Army. The Navy, on its part, is using eight Searchers and four Herons for medium-range surveillance up to 200 nautical miles over the sea, greatly boosting its maritime surveillance capabilities. The IAF has over five UAV squadrons now, with the last three being procured from Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) for Rs 576 Crore during 2003. (Times of India Report).

 

A Times of India report indicated that the Indian Defence ministry is drafting a combined proposal to purchase Israeli Harpy UAVs, which are designed to detect and attack enemy radars. The Army is also looking to acquire miniature Israeli UAVs like 'Skylite-B' and 'I-View', which are man-portable and quite stealthy in nature, for Special Forces. Harpy can track and verify hostile radar emissions after being launched in any kind of weather and then attack the same in a vertical profile. This is also seen as an anti radiation missile and is planned to be mounted on the long endurance, medium-altitude `Heron' strategic UAVs already acquired from Israel.

 

Rohtang Tunnel Work Begins in 2008

 

Work on the ambitious Rohtang tunnel will commence during 2008 - 09. The project is costing over Rs 1,300 Crores and would be completed by 2013. The tunnel, which would be the highest in the world, will make the strategic Manali-Leh highway an all-weather road. It would also reduce the journey between Manali and Sarchu by nearly 50 kms. Presently, road link with Ladakh region remains cut off from the rest of the country for over six months between November and April. Rohtang tunnel would be wide enough to meet the future needs and even container-trawlers would be able to drive through it. (MOD India Report). Comments. The completion of the Rohtang tunnel will be an important landmark and will provide easy connectivity to Ladakh which remains cut off almost 5 to 6 months in the year due to snowfall. The tunnel will provide ease of passage and will overcome the feeling of isolation in the people during the winters.

 

DGQA to Automate - Enhance Quality Assurance Support to Users

 

An automation plan worth Rs.2.32 Crore of Directorate General Quality Assurance (DGQA) to link all Technical Directorates, Administration Directorate and Units of R&S Directorates to provide online Quality Assurance Services to users and production agencies is in the final stage. DGQA provides vital quality assurance support to the services. Comments. Automation will certainly provide the DGQA with ability for a more responsive and accurate quality assurance support for the Armed Forces. This is particularly essential in the case of ammunition, as a large number of fire accidents in ammunition depots resulting in loss of large scale ammunition and a number of lives can be attributed to antiquated ammunition kept in the Depots beyond the shelf life. The most recent fire in the Depot at Khundroo in Kashmir had resulted in the death of 19 personnel and losses worth several hundred crores. However there are also very important drips within the system which need to be controlled. Adoption of international standards and processes in this context is important.

 

Land Forces Capability Building

 

Surveillance Grid in Kashmir - High Technology For Counter Infiltration

 

A delegation of senior Israeli army officers will visit Kashmir in the month of October for real time testing of Israeli-made surveillance devices, ranging from unattended ground sensors and Hand-Held Thermal Imagers (HHTI) to Long-Range Reconnaissance and Observation Systems and the Battle Field Surveillance Radars. This would be a ground check of the `Surveillance Grid` deployed by the Indian army along its frontiers with Pakistan to keep a check on the infiltration of militants from the Pakistani side of Kashmir. The Surveillance Grid is the first monitoring system of its kind in South Asia and makes combined use of high-power cameras, thermal sensing cameras and long range observation system (Loros) to monitor all types of movements at and across the border with Pakistan. The Israeli army delegation will review the functioning and effectiveness of the equipment in Kashmir. The Israeli army delegation will also share with Indian army officers and men, their experiences of tackling infiltration and militancy in Palestinians areas. (www.newsblaze.com).

 

Indo Myanmar Border Security - Fence and Road to Control Infiltration

 

 

The first phase of the proposed Indo-Myanmar border fencing work would be taken up at Moreh in Manipur. This will be a part of the overall efforts to check the movement of militants and illegal drug trafficking in the north eastern region of the country bordering Myanmar. North-eastern States are located at a very strategic point sharing 1,643 kms border with Myanmar, which is vulnerable for illicit trafficking. As of now only 52 kms stretch of the border is manned by Indian security forces. The 25th battalion of the Border Road Task Force has been entrusted with the task of taking up border fencing at the international border. The Centre is also considering construction of a parallel road along the entire length of Indo-Myanmar border. (Nagaland Post Report). Comments. Indian experience has shown that border fencing is an effective means of ensuring security of the outlying areas; this has been successfully carried out on the international border with Pakistan. However the nature of terrain on the Indo Myanmar border may pose major challenges to a fence which will also be affected by high levels of humidity in the area.

 

Maritime Forces Capability Building

 

Freedom to Use the Seas: India `s Maritime Military Strategy (IMMS)

 

India`s quest for acquisition of a nuclear submarine has been vehemently articulated in the Indian Navy`s new strategy entitled, `Freedom to Use the Seas: India`s Maritime Military Strategy (IMMS)` as per a report in the Times of India. "The most credible of all arsenals is a second-strike based on the nuclear-armed missile submarine," as per this strategy document which is to complement the Doctrine. Nuclear submarines have the speed, endurance and stealth to act as ideal launch pads for a second strike capability. A deterrence based on nuclear submarines is also said to require lesser number of assets than an air or land based one. Thus the United States and Russia are also planning to retain two-thirds of the strategic warheads they eventually retain, under arms reduction agreements, in the shape of SLBMs.

 

Presently India`s nuclear capability is restricted to a dyad based on the rail and road-mobile Agni missiles and Mirage-2000s and Sukhoi-30MKIs fighters. Acquisition of a nuclear submarine has thus assumed priority. SLBMs and SLCMs (cruise missiles) are also being developed under the `Sagarika` project. But only four tofive tests have been carried out from "submersible pontoon launchers" so far. It will take another three-four years for an integrated SLBM or SLCM capability to be ready as per the Times of India report. (Times of India Report). Comments. The main focus of the Naval strategy apart from providing the nation a critical second strike capability is of ensuring freedom of the seas.

Malabar 2007 : Extending Maritime Power

 

In India, national interest and the role of the armed forces have been recently redefined to denote contribution to growth, development and prosperity of the country with removal of poverty. The Prime Minister, Mr ManMohan Singh aptly described the same as, " India stands for peace and for the peaceful resolution of all problems between nation states. Our national goal is to foster an external and internal environment of peace and stability, which will allow us adequate space to concentrate on the multiple economic and social challenges facing our people. But the reality is that we live in a world of unequal power relations. We live in an uncertain international security environment. We are therefore obliged to create adequate defence preparedness to manage any potential challenge to our security and vital national interests". In line with this, the armed forces role has received the new dimension of, "__ a mix of security cooperation, developing strategic partnerships and deterrence - in consonance with our security and strategic interests." Malabar 2007 fits in well with the first part of the role definition, however whether it conforms to overall national interests of the country needs consideration.

 

Navies have always represented a combination of diplomatic and military muscle. While gunboat diplomacy is an age old cliché, its re-emergence in the 21 st Century albeit in the form of maritime cooperation denotes that the basic tenets of naval employment remain unchanged. Malabar 07 falls in the same paradigm. Five navies, three of them, Australia, Japan and Singapore in military alliance with the United States are participating in Malabar 2007. India is the only odd one out and is the second largest participant. As per some reports, ironically, India is the designated, `enemy` for exercise purposes.

 

The overall concept of the US Navy denotes creation of joint task forces to dominate critical sea lanes. CTF 150 is one such force which patrols the Gulf waters, the command of which is currently with the Pakistan Navy. No such arrangement exists in the critical Malacca straits principally because there is no necessity. The threat of maritime piracy has been consistently in recession. IMRB reports indicate that between 2002 to 2006, piracy incidents off India have come down from 18 to 5, Indonesia 103 to 50, in the Malacca straits from 16 to 11 and Bangladesh from a high of 58 in 2003 to 47. Moreover Bangladesh has seen just 5 incidents over the past eight months in 2007 indicating a steep decline.

 

Combating maritime piracy involves low intensity maritime operations (LIMO) which essentially necessitate deployment of a littoral force and not the aircraft carrier heavy contingents of two dozen blue water ships and submarines including a nuclear powered one. Moreover the manoeuvres being conducted in Malabar 2007 have been typified as dissimilar air combat, air defence of war ships and submarine hunting from the air. None of these have any linkages with anti piracy operations. On the other hand, disaster relief given the experience of the tsunami 2004, wherein proactive action by the Indian Navy saved many lives has been thrown in as an addendum. Ironically none of the local navies be it of Thailand which even fields an aircraft carrier, Indonesia or Malaysia are participating in these manoeuvres, not even Bangladesh which only last month has recommissioned a top of the line frigate.

 

There is no gain saying the fact that Malabar 2007 denotes beginnings of a maritime alliance in the Indian Ocean region. The reason for this is certainly not the threat of piracy, but a new bonding between like minded nations. This is supportive of new concepts fostered by the US Navy such as the Thousand Ship Navy (TSN) and seeks to pull in India into the post 9/11 existing ones of Container and Proliferation Security Initiative.

 

These alliances will certainly create for India a, `feel good` factor. However there is a need to deliberate their impact on our overall national interest. Will it be fulfilled by a coalition with states who`s defence budgets are driven by the military industrial complex, thereby creating avoidable tension in the neighbourhood, possibly leading to `arms racing` if not an arms race? Or should we continue with our age old policy of bilateral military engagement evenly across the current geo political divide? For the asymmetry between Malabar 2007 and the port calls cum brown water training (not exercises) carried out between the Indian and the Chinese Navy in the past is so wide, that any assertive state is bound to react. Thus there is a dire need for expanding the restrictive dialogue by spin masters on either side of the pro and anti establishment divide to a well informed debate on issues which are in larger interests of India, a developing country and not an emerging maritime power in the Indian Ocean.

 

A maritime alliance between India and any of the participating nations in the Malabar 07 is a long way off. This is not likely to fructify very easily. While the Thousand Ship Navy may have some hopes of informal networking, but when seen as a mutual assistance pact it has a number of legal implications. The resistance from the Indian side to such an alliance will be quite extensive as it is seen in the case of the PSI and CSI. The latter had to be cancelled in the last minute due to political opposition. Thus a well thought out maritime integration policy is necessary for the country.

 

INS Jalashwa : Enhanced Amphibious and Disaster Relief Capability

 

INS Jalashwa, the latest induction into the Indian Navy, arrived at Visakhapatnam

on 12 Sep 07 after being commissioned at Norfolk, USA on 22 Jun 07. `Jalashwa`, (a

Sanskrit name of the Hippopotamus), with its Motto `The Fearless Pioneers`, is an amphibious assault ship that can embark, transport and land various elements of an amphibious force to support operations ashore. This is the 1st ship to be transferred from the US besides being the 1st Landing Platform Dock (LPD) to be acquired by the Navy.

The second largest ship in the Navy`s inventory, INS Jalashwa is equipped with a Landing Craft Mechanized (LCM-8) along with Seaking helicopters, Radars and rapid firing guns to undertake amphibious operations, Maritime surveillance, Special operations, Search and Rescue, Medical support and also Humanitarian relief. The specialty of this ship is the `Well Deck` housing the LCM-8 which can be launched by flooding the `Well deck` and operating the hinged gate at the rear end of the ship. The ship`s cargo space enhances the equipment carrying capability. (MOD Press Release).

 

Comments. INS Jalashwa will enhance the capability of the Indian Navy in the field of amphibious operations as well as disaster relief. It is the ideal ship for such purposes. However the problem is that the Indian Navy lacks adequate ground combat personnel and will be dependent on the Army. Thus integrated training for the purpose is essential till a possible Marine Brigade is raised.

 

Aero Space Forces Capability Building

 

Ayni in Tajikistan - An Outflanking Option


India's refurbishment of the Ayni military base, 15 km from Dushanbe, in Tajikistan for $1.77 million (about Rs 7 Crore) was completed in 2007 nearly 24 months behind schedule by the Indian Border Roads Organization under the 2002 bilateral defence agreement with Tajikistan. In July 2007, reportedly at the behest of a seemingly 'displeased' Moscow, Tajik Foreign Minister Hamrahon Zaripov declared that Dushanbe was not negotiating with New Delhi for use of Ayni. The Indian defence ministry on the other hand has been awaiting directions from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) headed by Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh to officially begin operating from there. The ministry had reportedly asked the CCS for a "formal mandate" on force levels before the Indian Air Force (IAF) transferred some of its assets to Ayni as part of India's move to augment its "strategic reach" in a troubled area and to secure its energy needs from Central Asia. There are presently 150 Indian military engineers, workers and defence personnel at Ayni comprising the base's maintenance squad as well as its training team engaged in instructing the Tajik air force. (India-defence.com Report).

Military planners also consider Ayni air base as a "limited, yet significant" platform to inject Special Forces into a hostile region in response to any emerging threat from the volatile Afghanistan-Pakistan arc. Hijacking by Islamist radicals of an Indian Airlines passenger aircraft from Kathmandu to Kandahar in southern Afghanistan in December 1999 was one such contingency in which India was forced to capitulate to terrorist demands. Ayni also serves as a conduit for India to funnel aid to war-torn Afghanistan as access via the shorter overland route via Pakistan is prohibited by Islamabad. However it is seen that Russia is bringing pressure on Tajikistan to delay and/or deny India base facilities purportedly to signal its displeasure at growing closer defence weapons cooperation with the United States. Russia it is said was fearful that India may join the American military industrial camp thereby denying Moscow sizeable market for military hardware. (India-defence.com Report).

 

Comments. Tajikistan is facing a crisis of trained military manpower. Even border defence is problematic for the country. India has considerable expertise and experience in all spheres of military activity and would be an ideal option to the Tajik government short of resources to support its fledgling forces. India has to exploit this card to advantage to persuade Tajikistan to allow it to base its forces at Ayni. At the same time political consensus needs to be built up within the country to avoid another stand off as the Indo US nuclear deal. Essentially India has to take a major foreign policy decision of ending its isolation from military engagement in and around the region, thereby providing it major advantages in the decades ahead.

 

India `s Air Power Focus in the East in 2012

 

Eastern Air Command (EAC) located at Shillong controls air operations in the eastern sector which includes West Bengal, Assam, Mizoram and other eastern states bordering Bangladesh, Burma and Tibet. EAC has permanent airbases at Chabua, Guwahati, Bagdogra, Barrackpore, Hashimara, Jorhat, Kalaikunda and Tezpur with forward airbases at Agartala, Kolkatta, Panagarh and Shillong. EAC features AD squadrons consisting of the MiG-21 and ground attack squadrons consisting of the MiG-27. With focus of India`s operations against Pakistan, the EAC has been traditionally neglected after the initial surge post 1962. However things are now set to change and the Solmara base in Tezpur is the first to see the transformation.

With the last sortie of MiG-21 on 13 September led by Air Officer Commanding in-Chief of the Eastern Air Command, Air Marshal P.K. Borbora, Tezpur base will be closed for modernisation and will subsequently take on Su 30 MKI fighters. Two squadrons of Sukhoi fighter aircraft are to be inducted into the Tezpur base to make up for the MiG phase-out making it the only IAF base in the eastern region to have two Sukhoi squadrons. The Sukhois as well as the new MRCA fighter aircraft for which global tender has been floated will replace the ageing MiGs when the base reopens. The Solmara air base up gradation has become a necessity as India has embarked on a major mission to boost air power on the eastern front in an apparent move to guard against China, as per a top air force commander quoted in the media. The plans include moving two squadrons or thirty six state-of-the-art Russian-built Sukhoi-30 aircraft to an air base in the east, adding advanced helicopters, strengthening runways and up gradation of other air force facilities.

(SAST October 2007).




 
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